Air Temperatures The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

87 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
91 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 76  Molokai AP
92 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui 
86 – 79  Kona AP, Hawaii
83 – 73  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Wednesday afternoon:

0.22  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.38  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.01  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.18  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.72  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Wednesday afternoon:

28  Port Allen, Kauai
32  Palehua, Oahu
27  Molokai
28  Lanai
31  Kahoolawe
30  Maalaea Bay, Maui
29  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (13,803 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

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Higher level clouds to our southwest and west…will move over the state at times

(click on the images to enlarge them)

 

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Thunderstorms…well offshore to the south and north-northwest

 

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Partly to mostly cloudy…clear areas locally

 

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Showers locally – Looping image

 

 

Small Craft Advisory…pink color below

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Hawaii Weather Narrative
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Broad Brush Overview: Look for moderate to locally strong trade winds to carry just a few brief windward showers through Thursday, although then winds will weaken and shift to the southeast Friday through the weekend. The lighter winds will lead to daytime sea breezes, along with a few isolated showers and increasingly uncomfortable muggy conditions.

>>> Maui News story on the recent heat

Details: Weather maps show a broad ridge aloft, a persistent surface trough to the northwest, and the trade wind supporting high centered far to the northeast. A ridge from this high extends southwest well north of the islands, which is supporting locally gusty trade winds. The trades are carrying low clouds our way…which are dropping a few windward showers. 

The stable atmosphere is limiting windward rainfall for the time being, while leeward areas will be mostly dry. Satellite imagery shows that thin high cirrus clouds are possible into Friday, although they may briefly thicken Thursday, due to the passage of a weak trough aloft. These clouds will filter and dim our Hawaiian sunshine when they slide overhead.

While little significant change is expected with the high to the northeast into next week, the trough to the northwest will become reinvigorated by a developing low aloft Thursday. This low and associated trough aloft is expected to linger northwest of the islands well into next week, supporting the development of several weak surface lows…while also causing the persistent trough to drift closer to the islands.

The ridge to the north will move over the islands in response, causing winds to weaken and veer to the south and southeast over Kauai and Oahu, with light to moderate east to southeast winds over the rest of the state. Initially, these unusual winds will support only limited showers, although increasing moisture will combine with the lighter winds to bring increasing mugginess.

As the trough axis nears Kauai Friday night and Saturday, models indicate increasing moisture moving up from the deeper tropics northward over the waters west of Kauai, which could lead to a period of showery weather over Kauai County in turn. Meanwhile, a mostly dry weather pattern is expected over the remainder of the state through Saturday.

Looking Further Ahead: As we get Sunday into early next week, there continues to be increased uncertainty as to where clouds and showers will occur, due to the veered winds and gradually increasing low-level moisture. While generally dry weather will continue over the Big Island, the other islands could see more showers Sunday into next Wednesday.

Some showers may form in the afternoons due to daytime heating and sea breezes, potentially bringing much needed showers to leeward areas, with a possible heavy downpour. In addition, conditions will be warm and muggy. Finally, the models have delayed the return of trade winds until the end of next week, as low pressure northwest of the states continues to veer and weaken the normal trade winds.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map

Marine Environmental Conditions: The combination of a trough to the west and high pressure far northeast of the state, will continue moderate to locally strong east to east-southeast winds through mid-week. Winds are expected to gradually weaken and veer southeast Thursday into the weekend…as the trough to the west strengthens.

A slight rise in south shore surf is expected, as a new small swell arrives. Only minimal surf is expected towards the latter half of the week. A small pulse of northwest swell will keep a little surf breaking, otherwise, only minor energy out of the northwest is expected through rest of the week. Surf along east facing shores will begin to rise this week, as trade winds become more established, especially for the east and central islands late in the week. A northeast swell is possible over the weekend.

Fire weather: Dry fuels combined with relative humidity values near 50% around mid-day, will combine with the locally gusty trade winds to bring increased fire weather concerns through Thursday. Decreasing winds and increasing relative humidity values from Friday onward…will diminish these concerns.

 

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World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

>>> Here’s Wednesday’s Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the eastern, central, and western Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea

>>> Here’s Wednesday’s Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico


>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. The hurricane season officially extends from June 1 to November 30.

For 2019, NOAA predicts a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

Latest satellite image of the Atlantic

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

1. A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for the development of this system while it moves generally westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70% probability of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Interesting: Most of the World to Face Record-High Temperatures Every Year Without Serious Climate Action — When we say, “how about that heat wave,” perhaps you think of the western United States, where temperatures last week soared above 120 degrees Fahrenheit, smashing dozens of historical heat records from Oregon to Arizona.

Or maybe you think of India — where intense heat has scorched the country for more than a month, killing at least 36 people and forcing hundreds of thousands to evacuate their villages — or perhaps Kuwait, where local media recently reported high temperatures of 145 F, potentially the highest temperature ever recorded on Earth.

The point is, the Northern Hemisphere is really, really hot right now and summer has barely begun. If it seems like these record heat waves are happening more often, that’s because they are — and, according to a new study published June 17 in the journal Nature Climate Change, this scorching trend will continue for most of the globe every single year as long as no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In the new study, a team of Australian meteorologists analyzed the predictions in 22 separate climate reports to calculate one range of über predictions about our planet’s hot, hot future. The scientists found that, under current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, high monthly temperature records will be set in approximately 58% of the world (including 67% of the poorest nations) every single year until 2100. Nearly 10% of the world will also have at least one monthly temperature record “smashed” by more than 1.8 F every year.

That’s one possible future. However, the researchers found, if the world’s nations substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (a scenario that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calls RCP2.6), the percentage of places on the planet setting new heat records every year drops to 14%.

“The impact of emissions reductions on the total number of monthly records set is stark,” the authors wrote in the study.

For example, the team found, many nations near the equator can expect to see 24 monthly heat records surpassed every decade that emissions remain unchecked — in other words, roughly two months of every year will be hotter than in any year before it. Under the low-emissions model, that number drops to less than three records per decade.

“The benefits of reducing emissions, in terms of both reducing the pace at which high temperature records are set and restricting the magnitude by which records are broken, are very clear,” the researchers wrote.

However, they cautioned, under the best-case scenario, it could still take decades for the rate of these monthly temperature extremes to start dropping. There’s no way we’re meeting that 2020 goal — but still, the sooner the world starts taking meaningful action against climate change, the better.