Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:

86 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
75  Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 74  Molokai
8974  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 73  Kailua Kona
83 – 68  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday evening:

1.77  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.27  Tunnel RG, Oahu
0.32  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.04  Kahoolawe

1.58  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.87  Waiakea Experiment Stn, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday evening:

23  Waimea Heights, Kauai
25  Kuaokala, Oahu
22  Molokai
27  Lanai
29  Kahoolawe
28  Maalaea Bay, Maui
24  Waikoloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs
A cold front approaching to the north…leading to a heavy rain threat starting Monday
Thunderstorms over the offshore waters south
Clear to partly cloudy…cirrus locally over the eastern islands
Showers locally – Looping image


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~


Broad Brush Overview: The recent strong and gust trade wind regime…will be giving way to lighter winds. Then, a moist southerly kona wind flow arrives Monday, ahead of an approaching cold front…which is forecast to move down the island chain Monday evening into mid-week. A drier and cooler northerly wind flow will settle over the islands, in the wake of the front.

Details: As this rather vigorous cold front approaches Kauai Monday, the models are showing moisture pooling over Oahu, Maui County, and the Big Island. This tropical moisture as it impacts island terrain, will likely produce heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms, and the potential of flash flooding…especially for the eastern islands through mid-week.

The front will push over Kauai Monday evening bringing moderate rains with it. The front will then move eastward, passing over Oahu and Maui County Tuesday, and then just east of the Big Island Wednesday. North winds behind the front will bring cool and dry conditions to Kauai and Oahu later Tuesday into Wednesday…and the rest of the state Thursday.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: The recent strong trade winds will be ending soon, as a rapidly developing storm force low replaces the high to the north of the islands on Sunday. The high will support locally strong trade winds today, although winds are expected to become light Sunday, as the high moves east and its associated surface ridge moves over the area. The low will send a cold front toward the islands from the northwest early next week, which will turn winds to a southerly direction. The front is expected to move through the island chain from Monday night through Tuesday…bringing varying winds and weather.

With winds gradually easing, the existing Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been trimmed back to include only those zones where winds are most accelerated by island terrain. Winds and seas will fall below criteria in all areas tonight. The High Surf Advisory for east facing shores is also cancelled, as seas are on a downward trend.

A SCA is likely for waters west of Molokai for strengthening southerly winds on Monday and Monday night.

Although wind waves will be lowering, building north-northwest and south swells Sunday and Monday are expected to keep combined seas elevated. A larger north-northwest swell building on Tuesday, will likely lead to SCA in all zones as seas rise again. The first north-northwest swell will produce surf near the advisory threshold along exposed north facing shores, and the second swell is expected to produce high surf along north facing shores. Advisory level surf along south facing shores is possible Sunday and Monday, with the swell generated by a distant low in the South Pacific. A small west swell is possible next week, generated by large and slow-moving Super Typhoon Lan in the Western Pacific. An even larger  northwest swell is possible late in the week. Southeast swell is also possible over the next several days.
Weather change on the horizon

World-wide Tropical Cyclone activity

>>> Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering Typhoon Lan, and Tropical Depression 27W in the northwest Pacific Ocean

>>> Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean

Super Typhoon 25W (Lan) remains active, here’s a graphical track map, and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Depression 27W is now active, here’s a graphical track map…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Volcanic Eruptions May Have Doomed an Ancient Egyptian Dynasty
Thousands of years ago, fallout from volcanic activity may have sounded a death knell for a centuries-old Egyptian dynasty, according to a new study.

In Ptolemaic Egypt (305 B.C. to 30 B.C.), the region’s prosperity was linked to the flood cycle of the Nile River, with regular flooding sustaining local agriculture. When floods failed, so did crops, and social unrest shook the region.

The new study proposes a link between historic volcanic activity and disruption of the African monsoon rainfall during the summer. A drier monsoon season could have reduced Nile flooding, leading to fewer crops and more food shortages and, ultimately, initiating a societal unraveling that led to the Ptolemaic dynasty’s eventual collapse, the study authors wrote.

When volcanoes erupt, they spew sulfur-rich gases in plumes that can extend into the stratosphere. These gases then oxidize and form particles called sulfate aerosols that can dramatically impact weather patterns such as monsoons, the study authors reported.

“These aerosols are really effective at reflecting incoming sunlight back to space,” study co-author Francis Ludlow, a researcher with the Yale Climate and Energy Institute, told Live Science in an email.

“Hence, less energy reaches the earth’s surface, so we have cooling, and where we have cooling, we also have less evaporation and less potential for rainfall,” he said.

Aerosols produced by a volcanic eruption in Iceland, for instance, could thereby sap the heat driving the African monsoon, thus leading to less rain and reduced Nile flooding, Ludlow explained.

Piecing together the events in ancient Egypt required delving into the geologic record for evidence of global volcanic activity and comparing that activity to fluctuations in annual Nile flooding, recorded over centuries with structures called nilometers.

“It was already known that the Nile was dependent on the strength of the African monsoon each summer, and that volcanism could alter the monsoons,” Ludlow said. The nilometers confirmed that during years when there were volcanic eruptions, the average Nile response was lower flood heights, the researchers found. Next, they needed to see if this finding corresponded to social repercussions.

The scientists compared their data to extensive records from the Ptolemaic dynasty describing episodes of unrest — which were previously unexplained — to see whether these incidents overlapped with volcanism and reduced flooding, Ludlow said.

Archives showed that, in the decade prior to the fall of the Ptolemaic dynasty — which ended with Cleopatra’s death in 30 B.C. — Egypt’s prosperity had weakened notably, with repeated Nile flooding failure, famine, plague, inflation, corruption, land abandonment and migration taking a heavy toll, Ludlow told Live Science in an email.

Moreover, samples taken from ice cores provided data about volcanic eruptions that aligned with notable social unraveling, the study authors wrote.

For example, a massive volcanic eruption in the Northern Hemisphere in 44 B.C. — the same decade noted in Egyptian records as a period of declining fortunes — was the biggest eruption in 2,500 years, “with 87 percent of the aerosols remaining in the Northern Hemisphere,” Ludlow said.

Because Egyptian agriculture depended almost entirely on summer flooding, interruptions in the floods could devastate crops, thus leading to famines and an increase in social tensions as people grew hungry and desperate. If other social and economic stresses were already at play — elevated taxes or disease outbreaks, for example — this could be enough to tip unrest into a full-blown revolt, Ludlow explained.

Warnings for the present are also written in these historical records, Ludlow added.

Though volcanic activity in recent centuries hasn’t rivaled the cataclysmic upheavals of past millennia, that could change “at any time,” he said. Explosive eruptions could have a devastating impact on agricultural regions that are presently dependent on monsoons, which would directly impact about 70 percent of the global population, Ludlow said.

“For the Nile, in particular — with tensions already high regarding the sharing of water from the Blue Nile between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt — the possibility of diminished supplies following the next big eruption needs to be included in any water-sharing agreements,” Ludlow said.

The findings were published online in the journal Nature.