Glenn’s Daily Weather Narrative

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

89 – 80  Lihue, Kauai /
88 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu /
94 – 71  Molokai AP
97 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui / record high temperature Monday (old record 94)
88 – 81  Kona AP, Hawaii
88 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii / 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Tuesday morning:

2.42  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.14  Palehua, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Maui
0.64  Puu Waawaa, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Tuesday morning:

15  Waimea Heights, Kauai
27  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
12  Molokai
20  Lanai
25  Kahoolawe
28  Maalaea Bay, Maui
24  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the ~10,023 feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

There are no tropical cyclones in our central Pacific…Hurricane Kiko, Tropical Cyclone 14E, and Tropical Storm 15E (Lorena) are spinning in the eastern Pacific
(click on the images to enlarge or animate them)

 

Tropical disturbances west, southwest…southeast of the islands

 

Variable clouds…some clear areas too

 

Showers locally, mostly offshore…locally heavy near Kauai
Looping image

 

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories at this time

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Moist and unstable weather associated with an upper disturbance and surface trough of low pressure in the vicinity of the islands, will keep the potential for locally heavy showers in play, mostly over Kauai and Oahu. A return of drier air and more stable conditions will return Wednesday through Thursday. Increasing clouds and showers will become a possibility as we get into the weekend.

Details: Instability and deep tropical moisture will hold over the western end of the state, as the tropical disturbance south-southwest of Kauai slowly lifts northwestward. Light to moderate low-level east-southeast flow will prevail, which should bring localized sea breezes. Our weather conditions will gradually improve over Maui County and the Big Island…as more stable and drier air arrives from the east.

Looking Further Ahead: Wednesday through Friday should bring a return of drier and more stable conditions. The models show most of the deep tropical moisture shifting west of the islands, closer to the tropical disturbance lifting northwestward….with diminishing showers. East-southeast will continue through Wednesday…before shifting back to a more typical easterly direction Thursday.

Despite some differences between the various models, a return of light winds and increasing moisture will be possible over the upcoming weekend, as a trough associated with a tropical disturbance to the south moves through. Added instability associated with an upper low setting up over the state combined with this moisture…will support increasing rainfall chances.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map

Marine Environmental Conditions: Moderate to locally strong east to east-southeast winds will hold through mid-week, as a tropical disturbance to the south-southwest lifts northwestward. A shift back to a more typical east to northeast direction is expected Thursday through Friday, with winds possibly strengthening to Small Craft Advisory levels for the typical windy areas around Maui and the Big Island. This transition will be short-lived, due to an approaching trough from the east-southeast. Models show a return of light to moderate east-southeast flow late Saturday through Sunday, which would support localized land and sea breeze conditions near the coasts.

A series of small swells from the southwest, south, and southeast is expected this week. The largest of these swells looks to be towards the end of the week, as a combination of a south-southwest swell and potential west-southwest swell moves in across the area. Surf heights are expected to be below advisory levels with these swells.

Small surf is expected along north, east and west facing shores through the week. Expect a small east swell from Tropical Cyclone Kiko around Thursday along exposed east facing shores…likely dropping over the weekend. Exposed west shores may see some of the west-southwest swell late Thursday into Friday. A small northwest swell will be possible late in the weekend into early next week.

 

 

Good Tuesday morning Hawaii!

 

World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

>>> Here’s Tuesday’s Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the eastern, central, and western Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea, including Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kiko), Tropical Cyclone 14E, and Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lorena) and a tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific, three tropical disturbances in the central Pacific…and two tropical disturbance in the western Pacific

>>> Here’s Tuesday’s Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, including Tropical Cyclones 09L (Humberto), and Tropical Cyclone 11L (Imelda)..and one tropical disturbance

>>> Atlantic Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Humberto) is located approximately 490 miles west-southwest of Bermuda
Tropical Cyclone 10L is located approximately 1165 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands
Tropical Cyclone 11L (Imelda) is located approximately 35 miles southwest of Galveston, Texas

 

Tropical Cyclone 09L (Humberto) remains active in the Atlantic…as a Category 2 hurricane

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts…as of advisory #20A

According to the NHC, Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph. This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to move just north of Bermuda Wednesday night. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

 

Tropical Cyclone 10L is now active in the Atlantic…as a tropical depression

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts…as of advisory #1

According to the NHC: the depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Island.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Caribbean Sea: 

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

>>> Gulf of Mexico: 

Tropical Cyclone 11L (Imelda) is active in the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts…as of advisory #1

According to the NHC, the depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore.

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

>>> Eastern Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kiko) is located approximately 1060 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

 

Hurricane 13E (Kiko) remains active in the eastern Pacific…as a Category 1 hurricane

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts…as of advisory #21

According to the NHC, Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the west on Wednesday, and a west-northwestward motion Thursday into Friday. Some weakening is possible today, followed by some increase in strength on Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles.

 

Tropical Cyclone 14E is now active in the eastern Pacific…as a tropical depression

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts…as of advisory #1

According to the NHC, the depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday, with a turn to the west-northwest forecast on Friday. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a hurricane by Friday.

 

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lorena) is active in the eastern Pacific…as a tropical storm

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts…as of advisory #1A

According to the NHC, Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph. A northwestward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for the next couple of days. Lorena is expected to move near the southwest coast of Mexico by Thursday. Gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

 

1.) Disorganized cloudiness and showers located just west of Central America are associated with a trough of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is anticipated during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Here’s an animated color enhanced satellite image of the central and eastern Pacific