Air Temperatures The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

87 – 78  Lihue, Kauai
90 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 77  Molokai AP
91 – 78  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 78  Kona AP, Hawaii
85 – 74  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Friday morning:

1.20  Kokee, Kauai
0.61  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.33  Molokai
0.02  Lanai
0.03  Kahoolawe
0.98  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.74  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Friday morning:

17  Port Allen, Kauai
29  Kii, Oahu
21  Molokai
22  Lanai
39  Kahoolawe
31  Maalaea Bay, Maui
31  Pali 2, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (13,803 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

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There are no tropical cyclones expected in the central Pacific
(click on the images to enlarge or animate them)

 

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Active thunderstorms well offshore…to the southwest through southeast

 

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Low clouds are arriving along the windward sides…with a few thin wisps of high cirrus

 

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Showers locally – Looping image

 

Small Craft Advisory…pink color below

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Hawaii Weather Narrative
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Broad Brush Overview: Our summertime trade winds will continue, becoming slightly lighter as we push into the weekend…and then into early next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain locations as usual, especially through the overnight and early morning hours…when moisture pockets move through the state. The one exception will be over the leeward sections of the Big Island, where afternoon and evening showers develop locally with the sea breezes. 

Looking Further Ahead: Satellite imagery shows low clouds associated with an area of higher moisture moving across the state. Although most of this coverage is focusing over windward sides, a few showers may spill over into leeward sections of the smaller islands. Models show the back edge of this area of higher moisture shifting west through tonight. This downward trend in moisture will act to reduce the windward shower coverage…which should continue through the weekend.

The trade winds will remain on the gusty side of the wind spectrum, and the windier locations of Maui’s Central Valley, as well as Lanai and Kohala on the Big Island, may near the wind advisory threshold…due to terrain accelerations and daytime heating during the afternoon. The models suggest that the trades will ease back into the moderate to locally strong category over the weekend…in response to the large area of high pressure weakening slightly to the north.

Looking Further Ahead: The moderate to strong trades should continue through early next week, then potentially increase by mid-week as the gradient tightens between the ridge to the north, and a weak trough passing by to the south. Showers will continue to favor windward areas, leaving leeward sections mostly dry. The GFS model shows an area of above average moisture clipping the Big Island late Monday through Tuesday. The ECMWF, however, shows this area remaining south of the islands…time will tell.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map

Marine Environmental Conditions: High pressure will continue to bring moderate to strong trade winds to the state. Look for a downward trend as the high well to our north is forecast to weaken a bit . This will lead to a slight weakening in the winds for the weekend, with further weakening of the winds expected early next week.

The current Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues for all coastal waters, primarily due to the elevated winds. With the winds expected to drop a bit tonight through the weekend, the SCA starting tonight will likely be trimmed back to the typical windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island through the weekend.

East facing shores will continue to see rough and choppy surf just below advisory levels in response to the trade wind swell. As the winds ease this weekend, the surf should drop slightly. Some small south and southwest swells are expected through the weekend, with an increase in surf along south facing shores possible early next week…as a couple small southwest swells arrive in the islands.

 

 

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World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

>>> Here’s Friday’s Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the eastern, central, and western Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea, including Tropical Storm 06W (Danas), and a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 91W…plus two tropical disturbances in the eastern Pacific (Invest 97E and 98E)

>>> Here’s Friday’s Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico


>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Atlantic

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.) An area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 97E, is located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with a tropical wave.

Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week before the system reaches cooler waters.

This disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

2.) A broad area of low pressure, being referred to as Invest 98E, is located more than 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system remains disorganized, and conditions are becoming less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. The low is expected to move west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Here’s what the computer models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Danas)

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Interesting: Last Month Was the Hottest June on Earth Ever Recorded — If you thought last month felt really, really hot, you were right. June 2019 was the hottest June on record for the globe. And, it was the second month in a row that balmy temperatures caused Antarctic sea ice coverage to reach a record low.

The sizzling average land and sea temperature of June 2019 was 1.71 degrees Fahrenheit above the global average temp of 59.9 F, making June 2019 the hottest June in 140 years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information. Nine of the top 10 hottest Junes have occurred since 2010.

In the U.S., Alaska had its second-warmest June since the state started keeping records in 1925. And although the Hawaiian islands are pretty much always balmy, the tropical region experienced its hottest June this year as well. The same goes for the Gulf of Mexico.

Europeans sweated more than normal last month, too, having experienced the region’s hottest June on record as a whole. Austria, Germany and Hungary each recorded their hottest June ever, and Switzerland had its second hottest.

Last month’s blanket of warmth covered the globe so thoroughly that it reached our planet’s melting poles. June 2019 was the 20th consecutive June with below-average sea ice coverage in the Arctic, and the fourth consecutive June with below-average sea ice coverage in the Antarctic. Ice coverage in the Antarctic was the smallest it’s ever been for June in the 41-year record, surpassing the previous record low set in 2002 by 62,000 square miles.

June’s high temperatures are on a par with the previous months of 2019. The year-to-date temperature across the globe is also 1.7 F above the 20th century average of 56.3 F, tying for second hottest with January to June 2017. Only January to June 2016 was warmer.

Are these record high temperatures a result of climate change? Yup.

“Climate is, by definition, the long-term average of weather, over many years,” Josef Werne, a professor of geology and environmental science at the University of Pittsburgh. “One cold (or warm) year or season has little to do with overall climate. It is when those cold (or warm) years become more and more regular that we start to recognize it as a change in climate rather than simply an anomalous year of weather,” he said.

As extreme heat waves happen more often across the globe, and Earth’s temperature continues to rise, it’s getting harder to ignore the unpleasant effects of climate change. A study published in June in the journal Nature Climate Change found that the scorching trend is likely to continue every year if no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.