Glenn’s Daily Weather Narrative

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

81 – 71  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 72  Molokai AP
82 – 68  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 75  Kailua Kona
82 – 69  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Thursday morning:

1.31  Kilohana, Kauai
0.51  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.45  Molokai
0.01  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.28  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.55  Papaikou Well, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Thursday morning:

20  Port Allen, Kauai
42  Kuaokala, Oahu
27  Molokai
27  Lanai
32  Kahoolawe
25  Maalaea Bay, Maui
27  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

High pressure north…with a trough of low pressure just north of Hawaii

Cirrus streaks over the islands…thunderstorms south

Partly cloudy…cloudy areas locally

Showers locally over the islands…and offshore
Looping image

 

Here’s the latest VOG Forecast Animation

Here’s the Vog Information website

Light ashfall likely to continue from Kilauea Volcano…Low level trade winds will push ash toward the southwest, and ash fallout will likely occur over the Kau district and Highway 11 southwest of the town of Volcano, including the communities of Pahala, Wood Valley and Naalehu.

Small Craft Advisory…Kauai, Kaiwi, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, Maalaea Bay, Big Island leeward and southeast waters

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Rather strong trade winds will persist through Saturday. These trades will carry low clouds and showers over the windward areas, with a few brief showers to leeward sections locally…on the smaller islands. Our local winds should ease somewhat Sunday into early next week. Trade showers may increase slightly Friday night through Saturday, with more widespread rainfall possible across parts of the state starting next Tuesday.

Details: The tight pressure gradient south of high located north of the state, is maintaining strong and gusty trade winds across the islands. Meanwhile, the poorly defined leading edge of a band of broken low clouds and scattered showers, along the tail-end of a dissipating front…continues moving slowly southward. Most of the low clouds and showers are banking up along the windward sections of the islands, although the gusty trades are carrying a few showers over to leeward sections.

The models indicate the surface high far north of the state will continue to move slowly eastward. At the same time, a ridge aloft will produce stable conditions over the state through Saturday. The band of low clouds and showers associated with the dissipating front, will continue to drop down toward the state. The remnants of this band will provide an increase in moisture and windward trade showers across much of the state…Friday night through Saturday.

Looking Ahead: The surface high will eventually begin to have less influence on the local weather once it moves far northeast of the area later this weekend. This will likely result in a gradual reduction in trade wind speeds starting Saturday night or Sunday. At the same time, the upper ridge is forecast to weaken on Sunday and Monday…as an upper-level low develops near the western end of the island chain by next Tuesday.

This low may act to destabilize the atmosphere, in addition to causing a surface trough to develop near the western islands. This may bring an increase in showers Monday night or Tuesday into the middle of next week, with a chance the rainfall could be locally heavy. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the long-range forecast at the moment, although, if this did occur, surface winds passing across the active lava flows and erupting volcano on the Big Island…;could become a problem for some areas of the Big Island outside of the Puna and Kau Districts.

>>> Meanwhile, a Special Weather Statement continues to highlight the relatively light ashfall that is occurring across portions of the Big Island’s Kau district. Several bursts of ash from Halemaumau/Kilauea crater have been noted recently in radar data (extending as high as 6000-8000 feet), and all indications are that this activity will continue for the foreseeable future.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map

Marine Environmental Conditions: High pressure passing by to the north of the state will keep a breezy trade wind flow in place across the coastal waters through Friday. The trades are expected to trend down over the weekend through early next week, as an approaching cold front shifts the high northeastward away from the island chain.

No significant swells are expected, with surf remaining below advisory levels through at least the middle of next week. A series of south-southwest swells will continue through the middle of next week, keeping surf along south facing shores near the summertime average. A small northwest swell may give surf a slight rise along north facing shores over the weekend. Breezy trade winds will deliver choppy waves to east facing shores into the weekend.

 

World-wide Tropical Cyclone activity

Here’s the Thursday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu)…in the Arabian Sea

Here’s the Thursday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90L over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula

 

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Mekunu)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: NOAA predicts a near or above normal 2018 hurricane season in the central Pacific – NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced there is an 80-percent chance of near or above normal tropical cyclone activity during the central Pacific hurricane season this year.

The 2018 outlook indicates equal chances of an above-normal and near-normal season at 40 percent each, and a 20-percent chance of a below-normal season.

For the season as a whole, three to six tropical cyclones are predicted for the central Pacific hurricane basin. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes. A near-normal season has three to five tropical cyclones, and an above-normal season has six or more tropical cyclones.

“This outlook reflects the forecast for ENSO neutral conditions, with a possible transition to a weak El Nino during the hurricane season. Also, ocean temperatures in the main hurricane formation region are expected to remain above-average, and vertical wind shear is predicted to be near- or weaker-than-average,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. Bell added, “If El Nino develops, the activity could be near the higher end of the predicted range.”

El Nino decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical central Pacific, which favors more and stronger tropical cyclones. El Nino also favors more westward-tracking storms from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific.

This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii. The hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.