Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:
82 – 72 Lihue, Kauai
81 – 72 Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 73 Molokai AP
84 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 74 Kailua Kona, Hawaii
82 – 70 Hilo, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Saturday afternoon:
5.32 Kilohana, Kauai
2.56 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
1.85 Molokai
0.09 Lanai
0.05 Kahoolawe
1.56 Puu Kukui, Maui
1.49 Laupahoehoe, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Saturday afternoon:
15 Poipu, Kauai
28 Kii, Oahu
31 Molokai
27 Lanai
29 Kahoolawe
28 Kapalua, Maui
31 Waikoloa, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
High clouds moving over the state from the west-southwest
(click on the images to enlarge them)
Deeper clouds well to the south
Partly to mostly cloudy skies…higher level clouds clearing from the west
Showers locally…a few are quite generous
Looping image
High Surf Advisory…purple color below
Small Craft Advisory…pink color below
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Broad Brush Overview: A showery cloud band will move over Maui county, spreading to the Big Island tonight, with the band eventually moving south of all islands Sunday night. Locally strong trade winds and fewer showers are expected after the cloud band passes, with winds easing slightly Sunday. Stronger trade winds and brief windward showers are expected Monday and Tuesday, with lighter winds and increased showers possible again toward the middle to end of next week.
Details: The models show the weakening front will eventually move across the Big Island tonight through Sunday, before moving south of the Big Island Monday. The troughs aloft will gradually shift eastward and weaken through Sunday. This will maintain slight instability across the area, which will continue to enhance the low clouds and showers, especially along the remnant frontal band. This could result in brief locally heavy downpours over some windward areas. The breezy trades will continue to carry a few showers over to leeward sections of some of the smaller islands.
As the low pressure troughs aloft continue to shift slowly eastward, the higher cirrus clouds will eventually move east of the state. In the meantime, moisture associated with the frontal boundary, combined with the cold pool aloft, due to the upper level trough, has the potential to produce brief periods of winter weather on the Big Island Summits, mainly on Sunday. This may prompt some light snow atop the Big Island summits, although no significant accumulations are expected at the moment. Here’s the webcam on the Mauna Kea summit if you want to check it out during the daylight hours.
Looking Ahead: The surface high will track slowly east to a position far north of the islands Monday. The low level east-northeast trade flow will continue to deliver passing low clouds and showers to windward areas Monday through mid-week. A new surface high building far north of the state will likely cause additional strengthening of the trades starting Tuesday. This may produce locally windy trade winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Later next week, the winds may diminish and veer around to the southeast. In addition, showers may increase again…as an upper level low develops west of the islands.
Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website
Marine Environmental Conditions: Trades are forecast to hold in the moderate to strong category this weekend, as high pressure builds north of the state in the wake of a dissipating front…pushing south across the islands. Trades may become stronger Tuesday through Wednesday, with near gales possible across the typically windier waters between Maui County and the Big Island. Seas will remain around the advisory level over most waters into tonight, before lowering Sunday through Monday, as the large north-northwest swell lowers. As a result, a small craft advisory will remain up through tonight across most waters due to a combo of winds and seas, then across the windier zones through the day Sunday.
Surf along north and west facing shores will hold around advisory levels, before gradually lowering through the rest of the weekend…as the swell eases. This swell will shift to a more northerly direction through the weekend as it fades.
A reinforcement out of the northwest is expected to fill in late Monday, peak Monday night into Tuesday, then fade through mid-week. Surf associated with this source should remain below the advisory levels along north and west facing shores as it fills in and peaks early next week.
Surf along east facing shores will gradually rise into into the new week as the trades increase, especially Tuesday as trades reach the strong category across most waters. Limited fetch upstream of the state, however, should keep the surf below advisory levels for east facing shores through this time.
Small surf will continue along south facing shores.
World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity
Here’s the Saturday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea…and the Atlantic Ocean
Here’s the Saturday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including two tropical disturbances in the western Pacific, Tropical Cyclone 32W in the South China Sea,Tropical Cyclone 07B (Gaja) in the Arabian Sea…and a tropical disturbance in the South Indian Ocean
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s what the computer models show
>>> South Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 07B (Gaja)
JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: The 2018 Leonid Meteor Shower Peaks This Weekend! Here’s What to Expect – Come early Sunday morning (Nov. 18), the famous Leonid meteor shower will reach its peak, with lesser numbers expected on the preceding and following mornings.
According to Margaret Campbell-Brown and Peter Brown in the 2018 Observer’s Handbook of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, Earth will pass through the thickest part of the Leonid swarm at 7 p.m. EST (2300 GMT) on Nov. 17. But the best time to look will be during the after-midnight hours of Sunday morning, once the source the meteors appear to stream from, called the radiant, comes above the horizon for observers in North America. The meteors appear to fly away from a point located within the Sickle of Leo (hence the name “Leonids”).
Actually, the very best time to observe the Leonids is as close to dawn as possible. This is when viewers will be able to avoid glare from a waxing gibbous moon (which sets before 2 a.m. local time) and the radiant will climb well up in the southeastern sky.
Under ideal dark-sky conditions, a single observer can expect to see about 10 to 15 of these ultraswift meteors each hour. They ram into our upper atmosphere at 45 miles (72 kilometers) per second — faster than any other meteor shower. As such, as many as half leave visible trails, and every once in a great while you might be treated to an outstandingly bright meteor (called a “fireball”) or a meteor that silently explodes in a strobe-like flash along its path (called a “bolide”). Such meteors become so bright they can cast distinct shadows.
Observing tips
Since November mornings tend to be quite chilly, verging on downright cold, the best suggestion is to be sure and bundle up. The best piece of equipment for meteor watching is a long lounge chair in which you can lie back and look up without putting any stress on your neck. Look up into the sky, keep your eyes moving around and don’t stare at any one place. Pretty soon you’ll see a streak in the sky; mentally trace the streak backward. When another streak comes by, trace that backward also and see if it came from the same region of the sky as the first.
By the time a third streak appears, you should be able to verify that the emanation point is indeed within the Sickle, a backward question-mark pattern of stars that marks the head and mane of Leo, the Lion.
The past
What most people remember about the Leonids are the spectacular meteor displays that they staged during the 1998 through 2002 time frame. In some cases, meteors fell at rates of up to 3,000 per hour! The cause of these stupendous displays was Earth’s interaction with dense streamers of dust trailing immediately behind Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, which sheds dusty comet debris into space each time it passes the sun at roughly 33-year intervals. The comet reached the far end of its orbit, called aphelion, in 2014, so the Leonids have been weak in recent years.
The future
Unfortunately, on its way back in toward the sun, the comet will pass close to Jupiter, whose potent gravitational field will noticeably perturb the orbit of the comet and its accompanying dense trails of dust. So, stupendous “storms” of meteors are not likely to occur on the next Leonid cycle. Still, there is a chance of some significant activity. Russian meteor expert Mikhail Maslov has predicted that on Nov. 19, 2034, dust trails shed by the comet in 1699 and 1866 will partially overlap upon their interaction with Earth, possibly producing meteor rates in the many hundreds per hour. Not a meteor “storm,” but still potentially a very impressive display.
Mark your calendars!
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