Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:

88 – 78  Lihue, Kauai /
80 – 69  Honolulu, Oahu /
90 – 77  Molokai AP
90 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui /
88 – 74  Kona AP, Hawaii
88 – 74  Hilo, Hawaii / 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Saturday:

1.20  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.29  Luluku, Oahu
0.25  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
2.26  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.62  Honaunau, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Saturday:

31  Port Allen, Kauai
29  Kuaokala, Oahu
30  Molokai
32  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
32  Maalaea Bay, Maui
36  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the ~10,023 feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/ft-animated.gif
There are no tropical cyclones in our central Pacific…Tropical Storm Kiko, Tropical Storm 14E (Mario), and Hurricane 15E (Lorena) are spinning in the eastern Pacific
(click on the images to enlarge or animate them)

 

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Heavy rain bearing clouds…mostly offshore from the islands

 

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Partly to mostly cloudy…some clear areas locally

 

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally…some are quite generous
 Looping image

 

Small Craft Advisory…pink color below

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/hfo.png


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 


Broad Brush Overview: Look for increasing moisture and instability, which will prompt a wet pattern this weekend. Showers will continue to focus over windward areas, becoming more widespread Sunday through Monday…as the trades falter. Although some drier air is expected to fill in over the Big Island and Maui County Tuesday, the wet pattern will linger over Kauai and Oahu through mid-week.

Details: A wet pattern evolves as an upper low continues westward across the state. An associated surface trough, still well east-southeast of the state, will move through the area through Sunday. A combination of this upper low and surface trough, drawing deep tropical moisture northward…will increase rainfall.

These conditions will arrive over the eastern islands first, then across the entire state Sunday through Monday. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, a few thunderstorms will be possible, as the upper low remains over the state. Showers will focus over windward areas…becoming more widespread Sunday-Monday. 

Looking Further Ahead: Through the first half of the new week, the models show the upper low lifting northward and away from the state. A plume of deep tropical moisture may stall over Kauai and Oahu. This moisture combined with light east-southeast low-level flow, will keep the rain chances alive. Rain will likely taper off for the Big Island and Maui County…as drier air moves in Tuesday through Wednesday.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map

Marine Environmental Conditions: High pressure far north-northeast of the state will maintain the moderate to locally strong northeast trades. Sea and land breezes are possible Sunday,especially along the leeward coasts. Models are currently indicating moderate east to east-southeast winds returning on Monday, and a possible cold front developing northwest of the state later in the week.

A series of small swells from the southwest, west-southwest and south are expected this weekend. A small northwest swell is expected into early in the new week. In the longer term, a prolonged south swell from a storm south of New Zealand could arrive around mid-week and potentially bring advisory level surf by the end of next week.

 

 

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The weekend is here!

 


World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

>>> Here’s Saturday’s Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the eastern, central, and western Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea, including Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kiko), Tropical Cyclone 14E (Mario), and Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lorena) in the eastern Pacific…and Tropical Cyclone 18W (Tapah) in the western Pacific, along with a tropical disturbance in the Arabian Sea.

>>> Here’s Saturday’s Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, including Tropical Cyclone 10L (Jerry)…and three tropical disturbances


>>> Atlantic Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 10L (Jerry) is located approximately 645 miles south of Bermuda

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT10/refresh/AL102019_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/144756_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

Tropical Storm 10L (Jerry) remains active in the Atlantic

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts

According to the NHC: Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward early next week. Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.

 

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located less than 100 miles east of Barbados have not become any better organized during the day, and the system does not have a well-defined circulation. However, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission earlier this afternoon indicated that the wave is producing winds to 35 mph. At least gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form during the next couple of days while it moves westward and then northwestward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…70 percent

2.) A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa overnight and on Sunday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Satellite/hicbsat.gif

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

>>> Gulf of Mexico: 

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

>>> Eastern Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kiko) is located approximately 1440 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 14E (Mario) is located approximately 230 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 15E (Lorena) is located approximately 60 miles south of Guaymas, Mexico

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_2d0.png

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP13/refresh/EP132019_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/145749_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

Tropical Storm 13E (Kiko) remains active in the eastern Pacific

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts

According to the NHC, Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph. A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP14/refresh/EP142019_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/144926_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

Tropical Storm 14E (Mario) remains active in the eastern Pacific

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts

According to the NHC, Mario is moving toward the north near 5 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP15/refresh/EP152019_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/145805_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

Tropical Storm 15E (Lorena) remains active in the eastern Pacific

Here’s what the computer models are showing

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts

According to the NHC, Lorena is moving toward the north near 12 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday. Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles to the north and east of the center.

Here’s an animated color enhanced satellite image of the central and eastern Pacific

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 18W (Tapah)

JTWC textual warning
JTWC graphical track map

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Interesting: Extinct Denisovan Woman Gets Her First Portrait Thanks to DNA from Her Pinky Bone — From a scrap of DNA on a severed pinky bone comes the first close-up of humanity’s long-gone relatives.

As recently as 15,000 years ago, humans shared their caves with another group of upright apes called the Denisovans. The two hominins were genetically distinct, splitting from their nearest common ancestor more than 500,000 years earlier, but they were physically close. Humans and Denisovans mated — probably a lot — over a range that spanned from Siberia to Southeast Asia, leaving a scant genetic lineage that’s still detectable in some human populations today.

Besides those genetic scraps, only a few reminders of our ancient familiars remain — a jawbone, some teeth and a girl’s pinky bone with a dollop of DNA on its tip, plucked from a cave in Siberia in 2010. No complete skeletons or skulls have ever been found, leaving scientists to wonder: What did these proto-people even look like?

A new study published on September 18th, in the journal Cell aims to answer that question with an unprecedented genetic analysis. By making a methyl map of the Denisovan’s genome — that is, a map showing how chemical changes to gene expression could influence physical traits — an international team of researchers has reconstructed the first plausible portrait of the 40,000-year-old Denisovan girl whose pinky helped launch a new branch of the human family tree.

The results show a figure with a low forehead, protruding jaw and near-nonexistent chin — an overall anatomy not so different from another group of extinct humans, the Neanderthals, who occupied the Earth at around the same time.

“I was expecting Denisovan traits to be similar to Neanderthals, just because Neanderthals are their closest relatives,” lead study author David Gokhman, a geneticist at Stanford University. “But in the few traits where they differ, the differences are extreme.”

For example, Gokhman and his colleagues found, Denisovans had significantly longer dental arches (that is, their top and bottom rows of teeth jutted out farther) than Neanderthals and modern humans; and the tops of their skulls stretched noticeably wider. These findings give Gokhman some hope that two partial skulls recently discovered in China might actually belong to the wide-headed Denisovans, potentially expanding the meager fossil record of our elusive, dead relatives.

Pinky Promise

So, how do you reconstruct an extinct person’s face when all you have to work with is some DNA on their fingertip? For this study, Gokhman and his colleagues looked for abnormalities in gene expression — or, how certain physical traits may be influenced by chemical inhibitors in a person’s genetic code.

“There are various layers that compose our genome,” Gokhman said. “We have the DNA sequence itself, where our genes are encoded. Then, on top of that, there are regulatory layers that control which genes are activated or deactivated, and in what tissue.”

One of those layers is a process called DNA methylation. Methylation occurs when chemicals containing one carbon atom and three hydrogen atoms — also known as methyl groups — bind to certain DNA molecules. While this binding doesn’t change the underlying DNA sequence, it can interfere with the way that specific genes are expressed. Certain patterns of methylation can indicate whether a cell has cancer, for example, and can lead to anatomical deformities.

So, the researchers looked at the available Denisovan DNA to compare the group’s methylation patterns with those found in humans and Neanderthals to see where their gene expression overlapped, and where it diverged. Once the Denisovans’ unique methylation profile was mapped, the researchers tried to figure out which physical traits were being altered by each methylated gene, based on known human disorders that result when those same genes are inhibited.

The team found a total of 56 traits in Denisovans that they predicted to be different from modern humans and Neanderthals, 32 of which resulted in clear anatomical differences. In addition to their wide skulls and jutting jaws, Denisovans had wider pelvises and rib cages than modern humans, and thinner, flatter faces than Neanderthals.

o test the accuracy of their anatomical predictions, the researchers also created similar methyl maps for Neanderthals and chimpanzees — two species with known anatomy — that they could use to check their predictions instantly. They found that about 85% of their predictions about which traits diverged and in what direction (say, whether a Neanderthal’s skull was wider or thinner than a human’s) were dead-on.

This gave the researchers hope that their reconstructed Denisovan was not far off from the ancient reality. A final test of their predictions came in May 2019, when a separate group of researchers reportedly identified a Denisovan jawbone for the first time. When Gokhman and his colleagues compared their predictions to the actual jawbone anatomy, they found that seven out of eight of their predictions matched.

“The only true test of our predictions is to find more Denisovan bones and match them,” Gokhman said. His dream fossil, he added, would include part of a Denisovan face — “just faces are so divergent between different humans,” he said.