Glenn’s Daily Weather Narrative

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

85  – 77  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 74  Molokai AP
88 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 77  Kailua Kona
85 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Friday evening:

0.28  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.06  Kahana, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.09  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.31  Waiaha, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Friday evening:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
30  Kuaokala, Oahu
30  Molokai
27  Lanai
33  Kahoolawe
31  Maalaea Bay, Maui
28  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Tropical disturbance well southeast (click to enlarge)

Thunderstorms north-northwest, southwest, south and southeast

Multi-layered clouds

Just a few showers locally and offshore – Looping image

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Broad Brush Overview: High pressure systems are located far northeast and northwest of the islands, which will keep the trade winds blowing across the Aloha State through the weekend…and on into next week. These locally breezy trades will soften back into the moderate levels tonight, and continue through the weekend. A relatively dry and stable air mass will limit trade showers until late Sunday, when an area of tropical moisture arrives from the east.

Details: The overlying atmosphere over the state remains quite stable. Thus, any showers that do fall in our area will be light in intensity for the most part.  Meanwhile, we find high cirrus clouds in the skies locally, dimming our Hawaiian sunshine at times. The models suggest that these cirrus streaks will stick around into the weekend. An upper low north-northwest of Kauai…is responsible in drawing the cirrus to over the islands from the deeper tropics.

Looking Ahead: As we push into late Sunday afternoon, the leading edge to an area of tropical moisture should be reaching the Big Island. This moisture will be working its way gradually westward across the rest of the state Sunday night and Monday, finally clearing Kauai by Tuesday afternoon of next week. This in turn will bring an increase in enhanced trade showers…with a few possible generous showers falling here and there.

There could be a surge in the trade wind speeds Tuesday, in the wake of this tropical moisture. This boost in the trades will be caused by a passing disturbance south of the islands. This area of moisture is currently far southeast of the Big Island. Additional pockets of moisture are expected to follow these features…which may keep the islands under an off and on wet trade pattern through much of next week.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: Moderate to locally strong trade winds continue. A disturbance located about 500 miles southwest of Hawaii will continue to track west and away from the islands tonight. The passing of this disturbance has kept the winds locally breezy over the state, although this will begin to weaken as the disturbance tracks farther from the state. Winds are then expected to decline a notch Friday night. Another weak disturbance is then forecast to pass south the of state early next week, once again strengthening the winds over the state.

A series of reinforcing south-southwest swells will keep surf along the south facing shores slightly above the summer average. A larger south-southwest swell is expected to begin arriving Saturday and peak on Sunday. This swell may cause surf to approach the High Surf Advisory threshold along south facing shores from Saturday into Monday. Surf along east facing shores will continue its downward trend into Saturday as the winds ease.

World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

Here’s the Friday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the Friday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including TC 12W (Amphil), and TC 13W..and several tropical disturbances 

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) According to the NHC…Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure are located a little more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The shower activity has not become any better organized today, and the system is heading toward unfavorable upper-level winds. The low is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and cross into the Central Pacific basin late this weekend or Monday with no significant development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

2.) According to the NHC…Another area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although this system is not showing any signs of organization at this time, conditions are forecast to become favorable for development and a tropical depression could form early next week. This disturbance is expected to move toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

3.) According to the NHC…And yet another area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves toward the west or west-northwest well south of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) According to the CPHC…An area of low pressure about 950 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is supporting disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions will be marginally conducive for some further development during the next few days as the system tracks westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: