The latest update to this website was at 827pm Saturday evening (HST)

 

Here are the highest temperatures Saturday afternoon…and the lowest Saturday morning:

86 / 71  Lihue AP, Kauai
89 / 73  Honolulu AP, Oahu
87 / 72  Molokai AP, Molokai
89 / 69  Kahului AP, Maui
86 / 75  Kona AP, Big Island
83 / 70  Hilo AP, Big Island

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday evening:

0.69  Kilohana, Kauai
0.37  Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.03  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.01  Lanai City, Lanai
1.08  Ulupalakua, Maui
0.39  Papaikou Well, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday evening:

13  Poipu, Kauai
27  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
23  Makapulapai, Molokai
30  Lanai 1, Lanai
26  Kapalua, Maui
28  Pali 2, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES17-TPW-13-900x540.gif 

 Thunderstorms south…an upper low just to our north (moving south)
(click for larger version)


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/hi/GEOCOLOR/GOES17-HI-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

Variable clouds across the state

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/hi/13/GOES17-HI-13-600x600.gif

Low clouds being carried our way on the trade wind flow…high Cirrus clouds arriving from the west

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

Localized showers…some are heavy

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Kauai_VIS_loop.gif

Kauai and Oahu (Satellite)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

Kauai and Oahu (Radar)

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Oahu-Maui_VIS_loop.gif

Oahu and Maui County (Satellite)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHMO_loop.gif

Oahu and Maui County (Radar)

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_VIS_loop.gif

 Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai, and the Big Island (Satellite)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

Maui County and the Big Island (Radar)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHWA_loop.gif

Big Island (Radar)

 

Model showing precipitation through 8-days (you can slow this animation down)

 

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/hfo.png

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/pmsl.gif

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Saturday comments:  I’m home here in upper Kula, Maui, I hope you have a great Saturday wherever you happen to be spending it.

504am, it’s mostly clear early this morning…the low temperature here at my Kula weather tower was 52.5 degrees.

607am, the high Cirrus clouds lit up a very pretty pink at sunrise!

808am, it’s partly cloudy, although with still lots of sunshine around. This morning I took an abbreviated walk, in distance, as I’ll be taking the drive over to Haiku, to meet with my friends there, for several games of Pickleball…which I always enjoy. I’ll stop off in Paia to do my weekly shopping at Mana Food, there on Baldwin Ave…on my way back here to upper Kula.

250pm, it’s turned way sunny in most areas, with the earlier towering cumulus clouds stacked-up over and around the Haleakala Crater…greatly diminished.

417pm, looking out the window here in upper Kula, I see some of the heavy showers, or even a thunderstorm forming up above Makena Beach, and up the mountain a distance from there. Looking out towards the ocean, I see lots of vertical development in the cumulus clouds well offshore. These upward pointing cumulus clouds are signs that the air aloft is cold, thus promoting the clouds to become more shower prone. It will be interesting to see what happens as this upper low pressure system shifts southward over our central islands tonight into Sunday! Will be begin hearing some thunder??

605pm, still lots of clouds around, some of which remain quite vertical, rather than the more typical cumulus or stratocumulus. My high temperature today was 80.5 degrees, although that was tempered by off and on rather brisk northerly breezes here in my area.

630pm, our resident Mockingbird starts singing very early, and ends late, well after sunset…I like it!

740pm, as you may know, Tropical Cyclone Milton is forecast to move through Florida, seemingly moving very close to Tampa. I was just looking at a computer model, and it shows yet another Tropical Cyclone moving in very close to the same area on Friday, October 18th! / Speaking of what the models show for the future, it looks like Hawaii may move into a wetter couple of days, with perhaps the first cold frontal passage of the autumn season around the 17th and 18th of this month. That’s absolutely a long shot, and shot in the dark, but what the heck, let’s see how good these models are!

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview:  Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected this weekend, bringing a few showers to windward areas. Additionally, afternoon sea breezes will bring clouds and showers to leeward and interior areas.

A low aloft will destabilize the island atmosphere, introducing the potential for some locally heavy showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms, first for Kauai and surrounding waters today, and then gradually spreading to the remainder of the state tonight and Sunday. Stronger trade winds and increasingly stable conditions will return next week.

Hawaii’s Weather Details:  A couple of stationary cold fronts and areas of low pressure at the surface far north of the islands, have cut off and weakened the Northeast Pacific High. As a result, prevailing background winds across the islands have weakened, and are expected to remain in the gentle to moderate range throughout the rest of the weekend.

Local satellite and radar imagery shows a few low clouds and showers embedded within the gentle trades moving into windward and mountain sections of the islands. Additionally, thin high clouds are also observed moving from west to east.

As the weekend progresses, a low aloft will shift southward, eventually settling over the central islands by Sunday. This low will destabilize the atmosphere, and while inversion heights increase, expect taller cloud development and heavier showers.

Additionally, the increasing instability will introduce slight chances of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances  have been down played to slight chance mention for Kauai and surrounding waters this afternoon, adding Oahu tonight, and eventually spreading to the rest of the state Sunday, including upslope locations of the Big Island Sunday afternoon.

Given the relatively light background flow, afternoon sea breezes are expected along select leeward areas from late morning through early evening today and Sunday. It is difficult to say where some of the heavier showers will be the next couple of days, but they are most likely over leeward areas during the afternoon and evening periods, and over windward areas during the overnight and morning hours.

The caveat to the forecast, however, is that precipitable water values are expected to be near the 1.2 to 1.5 inch range, which is very close to normal for early October. Therefore, although there should be sufficient moisture for a few heavier showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, the amount of moisture available is not significantly higher than what is to be expected for this time of year.

Latest model trends show trade winds may begin to gradually increase as early as late Sunday into early next week, as a new high pressure system to the distant northwest builds eastward. Stability will also increase as the low aloft weakens and moves away to the northeast.

Some instability may linger through Monday, but generally, increasingly stable trade wind conditions should return by Tuesday and persist through much of next week. With the return of a more typical trade wind pattern, expect clouds and showers to favor primarily windward and mountain areas.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Vog map animation

Hawaii’s Marine Environment:  A high northeast of the state will continue to weaken and drive gentle to moderate trade winds across local waters. An upper low will drop down over the islands, creating enough instability to generate isolated thunderstorms for areas mainly west of Oahu tonight into Sunday.

Expect trade winds to gradually strengthen Sunday into the first half of next week, as high pressure builds north of the state. Winds could potentially reach Small Craft Advisory levels across the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island by next week, and last through at least mid-week.

A pair of overlapping small north swells should maintain small surf across north facing shores through this weekend. A short lived small northeast swell is expected tonight through Sunday. This will also give east facing shores a slight bump on Sunday.

There is the potential for a moderate long period north-northwest swell as early as Sunday, which would peak Monday, below advisory levels for north facing shores. This swell could linger through the middle of next week as it slowly fades.

A moderate south swell is expected to slowly fill in, peak Sunday and hold into Monday, before gradually declining through the middle of next week. This swell may boost surf along south facing shores to near or slightly below advisory levels during its peak.

 

                           sunset beach walk - Picture of The West Inn Kauai - Tripadvisor

 

 

World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 12L (Kirk)…located about 1345 miles west-southwest of the Azores

KIRK SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS THE U.S. EAST COAST…INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS

According to the NHC Advisory number 27

Kirk is moving toward the north near 20 mph. On Sunday, Kirk should accelerate and turn toward the north-northeast and northeast, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward motion on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

cone graphic

Tropical Cyclone 13L (Leslie)…located about 855 miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands

LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD

According to the NHC Advisory number 15

Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a slight increase in forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

cone graphic

>>> Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Cyclone 14L (Milton)…located about 860 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida

MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY…RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
According to the NHC Advisory number 3

Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

cone graphic

Northeastern Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclone

>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located just off the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle portions of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

North Central Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Northwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Antarctic ‘Greening’ at Dramatic Rate

Vegetation cover across the Antarctic Peninsula has increased more than tenfold over the last four decades, new research shows.

The Antarctic Peninsula, like many polar regions, is warming faster than the global average, with extreme heat events in Antarctica becoming more common.

The new study – by the universities of Exeter and Hertfordshire, and the British Antarctic Survey – used satellite data to assess how much the Antarctic Peninsula has been “greening” in response to climate change.

It found that the area of vegetation cover across the Peninsula increased from less than one square kilometer in 1986 to almost 12 square kilometres by 2021.

Read More: University of Exeter