Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

84 – 71  Lihue, Kauai /
87 – 71  Honolulu, Oahu /
85 – 67  Molokai AP
87 – 64  Kahului AP, Maui / 
86 – 73  Kona AP, Hawaii
88 – 71  Hilo, Hawaii /

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Wednesday evening:

0.20  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.12  Waiawa, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.01  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.11  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.21  Lower Kahuku, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Wednesday evening:

15  Port Allen, Kauai
17  Kahuku Trng, Oahu
18  Molokai
14  Lanai
25  Kahoolawe
22  Maalaea Bay, Maui
22  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the ~10,023 feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/ft-animated.gif
The next approaching cold front is located northwest
(click on the images to enlarge or animate them)

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms in the deeper tropics

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy…cloudy areas locally

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
A few showers locally
Looping image

 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories at this time

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/hfo.png


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Broad Brush Overview:  A weak ridge north of the state will maintain light winds and mostly dry weather. A trend towards wetter weather will begin Friday afternoon and continue through the weekend, as a weak cold front passes through Kauai from the northwest…and tropical moisture moves in from the southeast. Showery trade wind weather is expected across the state for the first half of next week.

Details: A weak high pressure ridge over the Hawaiian Islands will keep weather conditions fairly stable into Thursday. A cold frontal boundary will remain north of the state. A stronger low pressure system and cold front will move into the area from the northwest direction Friday. Another low pressure system well southeast of the Big Island, will also move into the island chain by the end of the week.

Through Thursday, look for light easterly winds to veer towards the southeasterly direction Thursday. Daytime sea breezes will help build up clouds over island mountain and upcountry interior sections each day, with slight chances for shower activity mainly in the afternoon to early evening hours. Overnight land breezes will clear out cloud cover over the islands.

Two low pressure systems begin to converge over the state from the west and the east Friday. A trend towards  light southerly kona winds starts to develop ahead of the cold front approaching the islands from the northwest. Light kona winds will interact with the island land and sea breezes. Rainfall chances begin to trend higher over Kauai and the Big Island Friday afternoon, as deeper moisture and instability moves into the western and eastern ends of the state.

Looking Further Ahead: As we push into the weekend, weather models are showing a cold front moving into the western half of the state, while another low pressure trough moves into the Big Island and Maui. These two low pressure systems will converge over the state through the weekend, causing a significant increase in unsettled weather conditions statewide. Confidence in heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity is growing as the weekend gets closer.

The models go on to show cold air moving in behind the cold front getting trapped over the islands. This pool of cold air in the upper levels will cause a low to develop over the islands for the first half of next week. Expect continued unstable conditions through next week Monday and Tuesday, due to the unstable dynamics under this upper low. Island by island impacts will depend highly upon the location and intensity of this developing upper level system.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map

Marine Environmental Conditions: Light winds will continue to prevail, with some easterly components. A southerly flow will spread over the islands during the latter part of the week, as a front approaches from the northwest. Winds are expected to remain well below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through the end of the week. Winds are expected to swing around to the east Sunday and Monday, and could get close to SCA levels over the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island.

The current northwest swell will continue to lower. A larger north-northwest swell is expected to arrive Thursday, peak Thursday night at advisory levels, then lower gradually Friday and Saturday. A larger northwest swell is expected to arrive Saturday, peak Saturday night, then lower gradually Sunday and Monday. Surf heights may reach low end warning levels during the peak of this swell.

A series of small southerly swells are expected through the weekend. Surf will remain small along east facing shores due to the light winds over and upstream of the state. Surf heights will likely rise by early next week, as high pressure builds in to our north.



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World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity


Here’s a link to the latest Pacific Disaster Center’s Weather Wall


>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Atlantic

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.) A low pressure system located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Gradual development of the low is expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or early this weekend while the system moves slowly northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.) A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development of the disturbance while it moves generally westward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Here’s an animated color enhanced satellite image of the central and eastern Pacific

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2619.gif

Tropical Cyclone 26W (Fengshen)

Sustained winds are 50 knots with gusts to 65 knots…as of Warning 11

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical storm

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2719.gif

Tropical Cyclone 27W (Kalmaegi)

Sustained winds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots…as of Warning 6

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this tropical depression

Satellite image of this area

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones


Interesting: Venice Suffers Worst Flooding in 50 Years, Mayor Blames Climate Change — Five of the 10 worst floods in Venice’s history have hit in the last 20 years. “These are the effects of climate change,” the city’s mayor tweeted.

Venice is in a state of emergency as the Italian city deals with the aftermath of one of the worst floods in its history.

Late on Tuesday (November 12), high tides from the surrounding lagoon surged onto the more than 100 islands that make up Venice, flooding 85% of the city and damaging artwork and many historic sites, Mayor Luigi Brugnaro tweeted. Photos and videos posted on social media show the intense flood turning alleyways into rushing rivers, stranding large water taxis in public plazas, and drenching some of the city’s most iconic historic sites — including St. Mark’s Basilica, completed in 1092.

According to the local tide monitoring center, water levels from the flood peaked at 6.1 feet last night — the highest floodwaters in more than 50 years, and the second highest ever recorded in Venice. (The tide reached 6.3 feet, in November 1966.)

Venice is susceptible to some flooding — or “aqua alta,” as it’s regionally known — every year when high tides mix with heavy rain and strong winds. However, Brugnaro noted, yesterday’s intense surge was exceptional, and almost certainly linked to the increasingly powerful storms fueled by global warming.

“These are the effects of climate change,” Brugnaro tweeted. “The costs will be high.”

Of the 10 highest tides in Venice since record-keeping began in 1923, five have occurred in the last 20 years, including the current flood and one in 2018, BBC meteorologist Nikki Berry reported. Both events were tied to strong storm surges blowing northeastward across the Adriatic Sea (Venice is located on the northern seashore), thanks in part to changing patterns in the jet stream. These jet-stream patterns are likely to continue, leading to more frequent and intense storms, as climate change escalates, Berry wrote.

That puts Venice — which is already sinking at a rate of a few millimeters per year — at risk of more annual damage like this. To mitigate this damage, the Italian government has been developing a series of barriers and floodgates known as the Mose Project since the 1980s. The project, which was first tested in 2013, has cost billions of euros and may finally be ready for implementation in 2021, the BBC reported.

Two people have been reported dead from flood-related accidents since Tuesday. A man living on Pellestrina, one of the many islands that make up the Venetian lagoon, died of electrocution while attempting to start a water pump in his home. Another man was reported dead in his home in an unrelated incident.

St. Mark’s Basilica, the iconic cathedral sitting in Venice’s central piazza, was flooded for the sixth time in 1,200 years (four of those floods occurred in the past 20 years, The Guardian reported). According to Brugnaro, the landmark suffered “grave damage” to its structural columns and the crypt was completely flooded. Water damage appears rampant through the city’s many shops, hotels and landmarks.

More “very high” tides and flooding are expected throughout the week, Venice’s weather office said.