Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Friday:
86 – 74 Lihue, Kauai
86 – 73 Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 73 Molokai
86 – 72 Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 72 Kailua Kona
84 – 69 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Friday morning:
0.26 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.14 Waihee Pump, Oahu
0.08 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.02 Kahoolawe
0.06 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.38 Pahoa, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Friday morning:
18 Poipu, Kauai
21 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
20 Molokai
21 Lanai
24 Kahoolawe
23 Maalaea Bay, Maui
22 Kealakomo, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Fairly typical early summer pattern across the Pacific
Thunderstorms far southwest…out of season cold front northwest
Clear to partly cloudy…cloudy areas locally
Showers locally…mostly windward areas – Looping radar image
Special Weather Statement…coastal flooding possible through Saturday, especially for the south shores, due to the larger surf breaking there – afternoons during peak high tides will be most troublesome
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Broad Brush Overview: Moderate trade winds today will trend lighter over the weekend, which will continue to bring passing clouds and showers to windward areas during nights and mornings. The lighter winds will likely allow sea breezes to cause the formation of afternoon and evening clouds, along with a few showers over leeward upcountry areas. Additionally, a weak disturbance aloft may prompt a few briefly heavy showers to develop…especially on Sunday.
Details: Little change to the overall weather pattern is expected today, with moderate trade winds carrying passing clouds and a few showers to the windward areas…which may linger into the afternoon hours over windward Maui and the Big Island. A trend toward lighter trade winds is expected this weekend, as a weak trough of low pressure moves over the islands from the east. At the same time, a minor increase in moisture is expected to arrive on the trade flow.
A trough aloft approaching from the northwest, will cool mid-level temperatures near Kauai later this weekend into next week. This feature, combined with the arrival of increased moisture, is expected to keep passing showers over windward areas. In addition, the light winds will likely allow afternoon sea breezes to aid in the development clouds and showers over leeward interior areas…with the trough aloft potentially allowing a few showers to become briefly heavy.
The models indicate that the greatest instability, although modest, will be over Kauai and Oahu by Sunday. Light winds and slower shower movement, could increase the chance for higher localized rain totals. The combination of light winds, high sun angle, and humidity levels, will likely bring muggy conditions during the weekend. The developing trough aloft may bring periods of high cloudiness later this weekend into early next week as well.
Looking Further Ahead: As we move into early next week, the high pressure system to the north-northwest will move eastward, and models agree that stronger trades will take back over, delivering a few showers to the windward areas. A ridge of high pressure aloft is expected to build over the area from the northwest, as the trough aloft dissipates and moves away towards the southwest. This in turn will likely reduce shower activity over the leeward upcountry areas then.
Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map
Marine environment details: A ridge of high pressure north of the islands will keep moderate to locally stronger trade winds in place through the weekend, although winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. The trades are expected to strengthen early next week as high pressure builds northeast of the islands, and SCA for winds may be needed for the typically windy waters at that time.
A new reinforcing south-southwest swell will peak near or just below advisory levels today. Surf along south facing shores will remain above average Saturday and Sunday into early next week…although remain below advisory levels.
In addition to the new southerly swell, tides have been running about a half a foot above predicted levels. These elevated tide levels will increase the risk for minor coastal flooding when combined with the above average south swell. For the next few afternoons, the predicted high tides are around 2.5 feet, which does not include the extra 1/2 foot mentioned above.
Small trade wind and southeast swells will continue into the weekend. In the longer range, models indicate a northeast swell developing for the beginning of next week. A High Surf Advisory may eventually be needed for east facing shores…if the swell comes in larger than anticipated.
Be careful of breaking waves along leeward beaches
>>> Southern California Weather Brief: High pressure aloft centered over Southern Arizona will continue to bring very warm conditions away from the coast into next week. Skies should be clear, except for night through morning low clouds and fog. A cooling trend should develop Tuesday, as a low pressure system off the California Coast will weaken the upper level dome of high pressure…increasing the onshore flow.
Clear, with low clouds offshore…extending inland locally
World-wide tropical cyclone activity
>> Here’s the Friday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation, covering a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 93E in the eastern Pacific…and another in the western Pacific being referred to as Invest 97W
>>> Here’s the Friday Pacific Disaster Center Weather Wall Presentation, covering what’s left of Tropical Depression Cindy
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is reporting on Tropical Depression Cindy, located about 75 miles north-northeast of Memphis, Tennessee
NHC graphical track map, what the computer models are showing…and the looping radar images from Columbus AFB, MS
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclone
Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by early next week while it moves slowly west- northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days
Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: NOAA, USGS and partners predict third largest Gulf of Mexico summer dead zone ever – Larger-than-average low and no oxygen area may affect the region’s shrimp fisheries
Federal scientists forecast that this summer’s Gulf of Mexico dead zone – an area of low to no oxygen that can kill fish and other marine life – will be approximately 8,185 square miles, or about the size of New Jersey.
This would be the third largest dead zone recorded since monitoring began 32 years ago – the average Gulf dead zone since then has been 5,309 square miles.
The Gulf’s hypoxic (low oxygen) and anoxic (oxygen-free) zones are caused by excess nutrient pollution, primarily from human activities such as agriculture and wastewater. The excess nutrients stimulate an overgrowth of algae, which then sinks and decomposes in the water. The resulting low oxygen levels are insufficient to support most marine life and habitats in near-bottom waters, threatening the Gulf’s fisheries.
The Gulf dead zone may also slow shrimp growth, leading to fewer large shrimp, according to a NOAA-funded study led by Duke University. This could mean higher costs of large shrimp at the marketplace and an economic ripple effect on the Gulf shrimp fisheries.
“The Gulf’s summer hypoxic zone continues to put important habitats and valuable fisheries under intense stress,” said Rob Magnien, director of NOAA’s Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research. “Although there is some progress in reducing nutrients, the effects of the dead zone may further threaten the region’s coastal economies if current levels remain.”
This NOAA-sponsored forecast is based on nutrient runoff and river discharge data from the U.S. Geological Survey. The forecast assumes typical weather conditions, and the actual dead zone could be disrupted by hurricanes and tropical storms.
This year’s predicted large size is due mainly to heavy May stream flows, which were about 34 percent above the long-term average and had higher-than-average nutrient loads. The USGS estimates that 165,000 metric tons of nitrate – about 2,800 train cars of fertilizer – and 22,600 metric tons of phosphorus flowed down the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers into the Gulf of Mexico in May.
The USGS operates more than 3,000 real-time stream gauges, 60 real-time nitrate sensors, and tracks trends in nutrient loads and concentrations throughout the Mississippi-Atchafalaya watershed, which drains parts or all of 31 states.
“As algal blooms and hypoxia become more widespread and their effects more pronounced, the USGS’s long-term monitoring and real-time sensors, coupled with watershed modeling, will continue to improve our understanding of their causes and the role they play in the Gulf and in lakes and streams across the country,” said Don Cline, associate director for the USGS Water Mission Area.
The forecast assumes typical weather conditions, and the actual dead zone could be disrupted by hurricanes or tropical storms. The partners plan to confirm the size of the 2017 Gulf dead zone in early August, following monitoring surveys.
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