Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

82 72  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
8565  Molokai
86 – 66  Kahului AP, Maui
85 73  Kona Int’l AP
8366  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:

2.08  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.29  Palisades, Oahu
0.07  Molokai
0.00  L
0.04  Kahoolawe
0.28  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.39  Pahoa, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday evening:

21  Port Allen, Kauai
30  Kuaokala, Oahu
21  Molokai
27  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
28  Maalaea Bay, Maui

30  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs
A cold front northwest of the islands…will reach Hawaii Friday
A rather mild mannered weather pattern for Hawaii…at the moment
Clear to partly cloudy…with a few localized cloudy areas
Showers locally…mostly offshore –
Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…strong east-northeast winds over the Alenuihaha Channel

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~


Broad Brush Overview: Moderate trade winds will persist through tonight as a surface ridge of high pressure holds firm north of the state. The atmosphere will remain stable, with pockets of moisture affecting mainly windward slopes. Trades will soften and shift to the southeast Thursday, as a cold front approaches the state, leading to spotty afternoon upcountry showers. Friday, the front will bring showers to Kauai and possibly Oahu, while prefrontal showers will develop across the rest of the island chain. Wet and unstable conditions are expected over portions of the state through the weekend…as a late season low pressure system forms near the islands.

Details: We can expect little change to the current weather pattern through tonight, with windward slopes experiencing modest rainfall in passing showers, and just isolated showers for leeward areas. Late tonight through Thursday night, the trades will veer to the southeast, as a late season cold front approaches from the northwest. We’ll likely see volcanic haze (vog) being carried up over the smaller islands, as these lighter southeasterly breezes arrive. A deep upper level trough of low pressure, which is driving the cold front…will advance eastward during this time.

Available moisture will remain rather limited through Thursday morning, although the models show an area of somewhat enhanced low level moisture, moving into the state from the east Thursday afternoon. This increased moisture, and decreased stability, combined with the expected onshore flowing sea breezes, may prompt localized heavy showers to develop during the afternoon…especially over leeward and upcountry areas.

The latest model runs bring the cold front to Kauai at some point Friday, while the upper level trough continues to deepen over the state. Although moisture along the front itself may be rather shallow, there will probably be ample moisture pooled ahead of the front, combined with increasingly unstable conditions, to produce some locally heavy downpours. Heavy showers are now in the forecast for Friday afternoon…and with the cold air aloft over the state, there’s the outside chance of a thunderstorm or two.

Looking Ahead: The latest guidance continues to point towards an unstable weather pattern for the weekend…with the potential for heavy and possibly flooding rainfall. The models show a potent, upper level low developing north of the islands Saturday…dropping southward over or just west of the state Sunday through Monday. A blend of the most reliable models points toward Maui County as the most likely position for heaviest rainfall. Unsettled weather may persist across the state into early next week, as the upper level low may linger nearby…along with areas of above normal moisture.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details:  The high pressure ridge maintaining moderate to locally strong trade winds, remains north of the state. Winds remain strongest over the typically windier locations near the Big Island and the Pailolo Channel.

Winds will begin to weaken tonight into Thursday, as a late season cold front approaches from the northwest. The front is forecast to stall over the central islands, with breezy north winds causing small craft advisory level seas across the western coastal waters Friday night and Saturday.

The current northwest swell will be followed by a moderate north-northwest swell, arriving late Friday into Saturday. Small surf is expected along south facing shores through mid-week, with a new swell forecast to arrive from the south-southwest Thursday. This swell could raise surf along south facing shores to advisory levels, and will persist into the weekend. Surf along the east facing shores will begin to drop off Thursday and Friday…as the ridge to the north is eroded and winds become light.
Generally fair weather across the islands…with changes on the horizon

Southern California weather summary: There may be possible precipitation in the Ventura mountains early Thursday. A high pressure system to the west…and a low to our east, will bring fair skies…gusty winds and above normal temperatures into Sunday. The high will move in by Monday for fair skies…with an onshore flow starting a cooling trend at the coast.
No rain storms near Southern California
Warming weather with variable clouds

World-wide tropical cyclone activity

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Caribbean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins May 15th

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific
: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 03W (Muifa) remains active in the northwest Pacific, here’s the graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Global Warming Making Oceans More Toxic, Research Shows
– One oceanic consequence of climate change is well underway, and it’s likely already having a negative impact on human health, according to a new study led by a professor at Stony Brook’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (SoMAS).

This study demonstrates that the global warming that has already occurred is now impacting human health and our oceans,” Professor Christopher Gobler said. “An important implication of the study is that carbon emission and climate change-related policy decisions made today are likely to have important consequences for the fate of our future oceans, including the spread and intensification of toxic algal blooms.”

The study shows that since 1982 our oceans have warmed to become more hospitable for toxic algal blooms, the rapid increase of algae within a body of water, to spread and intensify. This means bad news for seafood eaters and ocean dwellers alike.

Algae types such as Alexandrium and Dinophysis, which were both subjects of the study, generate toxins that can cause neurological and gastrointestinal effects, including paralytic and diarrhetic shellfish poisoning in humans.

“Toxic or harmful algal blooms are not a new phenomenon, although many people may know them by other names such as red tides,” Gobler said. “These events can sicken or kill people who consume toxin-contaminated shellfish and can damage marine ecosystems by killing fish and other marine life.”

In the wake of climate change, harmful toxic algae events like these show no sign of slowing, according to the study.

“The distribution, frequency and intensity of these events have increased across the globe, and this study links this expansion to ocean warming in some regions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans,” Gobler said.

Gobler’s team’s study is one of the first to successfully link the recent intensification of toxic algal blooms directly to ocean warming and climate change through critical, quantitative evidence. The team achieved this by bringing together biologists and climate scientists who used ecosystem observations, laboratory experiments and 35 years of satellite-based temperature estimates to reach their conclusion.

“Today collaborating with scientists outside of your discipline is almost a requirement to solve the tough questions,” said Owen Doherty, climate modeler and study co-author. “This study showed the value of interdisciplinary collaboration through a novel combination of laboratory, observational and modeling work.”

The study, titled Ocean warming since 1982 has expanded the niche of toxic algal blooms in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans,” is now published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.