Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

82 – 71  Lihue, Kauai
84 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 72  Molokai AP
87 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 74  Kailua Kona
87 – 68  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Thursday morning:

0.54  Waialae, Kauai
0.46  Waipio, Oahu
0.28  Molokai
0.06  Lanai
0.01  Kahoolawe
0.86  Waikapu Country Club, Maui
0.34  Kealakomo, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Thursday morning:

15  Port Allen, Kauai
18  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
14  Molokai
13  Lanai
24  Kahoolawe
18  Maalaea Bay, Maui
22  PTA Range 17, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/ft-animated.gif
Deep clouds are now gone (click on the images to enlarge them)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Heavy showers are now far south


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Partly cloudy…lots of clear skies again

 

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Showers locally and offshore
 Looping image

 

Small Craft Advisory…pink color below

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~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: A trough of low pressure will remain in our vicinity then dissipate…keeping winds light. The atmosphere is still moist and somewhat unstable, so that clouds and showers will affect the islands at times, especially during the afternoon and evening. Trade winds will return Thursday through the weekend, with drier conditions spreading across the area.

Details: The recent upper level low and its associated low level system, is in the process of lifting northeast, allowing conditions to improve gradually. There’s still quite a bit of moisture in the island area…and the airmass remains somewhat unstable. Therefore, the islands may see an increase in clouds and showers as daytime heating occurs. The winds will remain light, allowing sea breezes to develop over the islands. The trades and a drier airmass will slowly return to the islands Thursday, as the surface trough finally dissipates. High pressure far northeast of the islands will provide trades to the area through the weekend.

Looking Ahead: Forecast models continue to show an upper level low pressure system developing east of the island chain this weekend, then shifts close to the islands by early next week. Depending on the location of this upper level feature, the islands may see another episode of unsettled weather, especially over the eastern end of the state. However the models suggest that there won’t be as much moisture present in the island vicinity…compared to the current weather situation.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: The threat of showers has decreased for the time being, though the chance of precipitation will increase again later today with daytime heating as surface and upper troughs remain in the area. However, most of this activity will be over land. High pressure will build north of the area Thursday, and moderate to breezy trades are expected to return thereafter. Small Craft Advisory conditions for the typically windier areas around Maui and the Big Island may return as early as Thursday evening.

Surf along north and west facing shores has peaked and will gradually decrease through the rest of the week. For the longer range, guidance suggests a broad area of strong to near gale-force winds associated with low pressure Thursday through Friday across the northwest Pacific. If this materializes, a moderate northwest swell will be possible Sunday night through early next week. Surf associated with this source should remain below advisory levels.

Surf along south facing shores has returned to normal heights for this time of year, with mainly south swells expected for the foreseeable future. Surf along east facing shores will remain in the small to moderate range through the week.

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World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Tropical Storm 31W (Yutu) in the western Pacific…and three tropical disturbances in the northeastern Pacific


>>> Atlantic Ocean:  No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) An elongated low pressure system located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves slowly northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

2.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remain disorganized. Any development during the next few days should be slow to occur while the disturbance moves toward the west or west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

3.) An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development of this system is expected to be slow due to the proximity of the disturbance to the east.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Storm 31W (Yutu)

JYWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting: Why Do People Like Pumpkin Spice So Much? – Mmm, that spicy-sweet scent that takes over coffee shops, bakeries and entire aisles at the grocery store is a good indication that autumn has arrived. But what is it about this seasonal trend — that is, infusing pumpkin spice flavor into all kinds of treats — that makes it a fall favorite?

The answer has to do with how our brains respond to nostalgia, marketing and the sweet taste that often comes along with the spice, said Catherine Franssen, assistant professor of biopsychology and director of neurostudies at Longwood University in Virginia.

Pumpkin spice is usually a blend of cinnamon, nutmeg, cloves and ginger, with allspice, cardamom and lemon peel occasionally added. (There is nothing “seasonal” about any of these ingredients — nor is there any actual pumpkin typically included.)

However, many families eat pumpkin pie and other similarly spiced treats in the fall. So, it’s understandable that we’ve come to associate these smells with the fall holidays. And that smell association then taps into our sense of nostalgia, Franssen said. For instance, the sweet smell of pumpkin spice might remind us of times we helped grandma bake pumpkin pie during Thanksgiving.

Smell is the only one of our senses that is transmitted directly to the amygdala, the emotional center of the brain, according to Franssen. Whenever we come across certain smells, the amygdala can quickly remind us of a specific time, place, feeling or gut instinct, before we even realize it, she said.

So, the familiarity of pumpkin spice flavors can bring back warm memories of home baking, family time, parties and feasts, as well as other positive links with fall. “You smell it — or even see those pumpkin pictures,” and the cerebral cortex, the part of the brain that can recall past associations, springs into action, Franssen said. Basically, this part of the brain, “tells the reward part of your brain [the mesolimbic dopaminergic pathway], this [pumpkin spice treat] is going to be great,” just like it was last time, Franssen said.

Another big factor in our love for pumpkin spice is how it’s marketed. Marketers start advertising pumpkin spice treats in early fall, as pumpkins start to ripen on their vines. Then, advertisers emphasize that pumpkins and pumpkin spice are available for only a limited time. (Why we become more motivated to purchase a limited time item is known as reactance theory, according to a blog post by Jordan Lewis, a neuroscientist at Penn State College of Medicine, on Scitable, which is published by Nature Education.)

Meanwhile, pumpkin spice products also entice consumers via their sweet tooth. Typically, pumpkin spice is presented in a treat, such as a baked good or a sweetened latte. “Our brain really prefers sugar as its nutrient source, because sugar molecules are really small, so they can cross membranes really easily,” Franssen said. “And your neurons, [or] brain cells, can use sugar really easily and readily.”

Because pumpkin spice-flavored food is typically on the sweet side, several areas of the brain become more active as these seasonal treats are consumed.

“There’s a sugar loading and your brain says ‘yay sugar, I’m so excited about sugar,'” Franssen said. “Not only is it a general activation [in the brain], but it’s going to light up the reward centers of your brain, like our dopaminergic pathways.” This, in turn, stimulates the production of dopamine, a neurotransmitter that helps control the brain’s reward and pleasure centers, which then creates the association that sugar is good and makes us want to consume more, according to Franssen.

Add it all together, and there’s a pretty good chance that the first sip of the first pumpkin spice latte of the season will make our brains say, “Wow, I really like how this pumpkin spice latte makes me feel,” convincing us to indulge in another.