Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

84 – 73  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 68  Molokai AP
89 – 66  Kahului AP, Maui 
87 – 76  Kailua Kona
88 – 69  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Tuesday evening:

0.04  Kilohana, Kauai
0.02  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.01  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Maui
0.00  Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Tuesday evening:

18  Port Allen, Kauai
09  Kii, Oahu
07  Molokai
17  Lanai
27  Kahoolaw
21  Maalaea Bay, Maui
18  PTA Range 17, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/avn-animated.gif
Hurricane Walaka remains active west of the state…and Hurricane Sergio continues moving west/ click images to enlarge

 

 http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2018/graphics/CP012018_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_16.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Hurricane Walaka (Category 4) with a distinct eye…to the west


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Variable clouds with some clear areas…and streaks of high cirrus

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/State_VIS_loop.gif

 

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
A few showers locally and offshore
 Looping image

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: High pressure lingers north of the islands, while very strong Hurricane Walaka remains far to the southwest of the state…drifting north slowly. Light east to southeast winds, with daytime sea breezes will prevail into the weekend. Look for warm and humid conditions, with rather limited shower activity over the next few days. The high pressure ridge will build back in north of the state Sunday, with a return to trade winds as a low pressure area northwest of the islands lifts northward.

Details: A low pressure system northwest of the Hawaiian Islands is prominent. This low will continue to weaken the high pressure ridge over the Central Pacific, allowing Hurricane Walaka to track northward over the next several days…towards this low pressure area. The weak ridge will produce light winds over the islands, mostly from the east to southeast. These wind speeds will remain light enough to allow daytime onshore sea breezes over all islands through Saturday, with clouds building over island interior sections each afternoon.

Hurricane Walaka is a very strong storm, and will pass by to the west of the islands today and Thursday. The models differ a bit on how far east an associated moisture plume will move towards Kauai and Oahu. It looks at this point like some enhanced shower activity for these western islands will occur Friday and Saturday, with amounts and timing depending on several factors. The precipitation chances increase slightly for the Thursday through Saturday time period.

Looking Ahead: Easterly trade winds will return on Sunday and last through at least the first half of next week. Look for clouds and developing showers to favor windward and mountain areas through the extended forecast period.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: Surface high pressure located north of the state will continue to lift north as a surface trough strengthens northwest of Kauai. This will weaken the winds and shift them around to a southeasterly direction, especially over the leeward waters. Meanwhile, Hurricane Walaka is expected to track north and should pass well west of the coastal waters Wednesday into Thursday. As it passes, winds will shift to the south for the far western waters and southeast across the eastern waters Thursday. Swells generated by Walaka may cause seas to approach the Small Craft Advisory criteria over some exposed western waters by Thursday.

A northwest swell is running slightly higher than expected, thus a High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect for north and west facing shores for Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui. This swell is expected to peak, and gradually diminish Wednesday through Thursday. A new south-southwest swell is expected to arrive, and peak with moderate heights along most south facing shores Wednesday. In addition, southwest and west swells generated by Walaka and Trami will provide an increase in surf heights along some exposed south and west facing shorelines starting late Wednesday or early Thursday. Surf is forecast to reach HSA criteria along some south or west facing shores over the western end of the island chain Thursday…and may approach warning levels.

A small east swell is expected to provide a slight boost in surf heights along east facing shores, although remain well below advisory level. Otherwise, expect the wind swell/surf to gradually diminish later in the week…as the trades weaken.



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico…including Tropical Cyclone Leslie

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) WeatherWall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Hurricane 21E (Sergio) in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Walaka in the central Pacific…and Typhoon 30W (Kong-rey) in the western Pacific


>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone Leslie

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map

According to the NHC Advisory 29…Leslie is stationary and little motion is expected for the next several hours. A northward motion is forecast to begin this evening, and this motion with an increase in forward speed should continue through Friday night. A turn to the east is expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

>>> Caribbean Sea:

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 21E (Sergio)

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map

According to the NHC Advisory 17…Sergio is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, with weakening expected to begin by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.

>>> Central Pacific: 

Hurricane Walaka

CPHC textual advisory
CPHC graphical track map

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the CPHC Advisory 16…Walaka is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph, and this general motion with a faster forward speed is expected through tonight. Walaka is forecast to turn toward the north with a slower forward speed Thursday and Thursday night. On this forecast track, the center of Walaka will likely reach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Walaka remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is possible starting later today. A faster weakening trend is forecast starting tonight, and continuing through Thursday night. However, Walaka will likely remain a powerful and life-threatening hurricane as it crosses the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 30W (Kong-rey)

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting: Grinning-Skull Asteroid Set to Whiz by Earth – Better late to the Halloween party than never: An asteroid shaped like a grinning skull is set to pass by Earth on November 11th.

Asteroid 2015 TB145 was first discovered in 2015, when it zipped within 301,986 miles of Earth right on Halloween. According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory small-body object database, the asteroid’s next flyby will not be nearly so close; it will pass about 24 million miles from our planet. That’s about a quarter of the distance from the Earth to the sun.

The next time 2015 TB 145 approaches Earth won’t be until 2082, when it will pass at about a third of the distance between the Earth and the sun. Its orbit will take it closer to Venus and Mercury in 2024, 2028 and 2037.

Scientists had the opportunity to snap some spooky images of 2015 TB 145 when it first passed the planet, in 2015. The pictures showed a mostly spherical rock with indentations that resembled gaping eye sockets and a nose hole, at least from some angles.

The asteroid is about 2,047 feet wide, according to a 2017 study, making it a relative pip-squeak, astronomically speaking. (By comparison, the asteroid thought to have wiped out the dinosaurs was about 6 miles across.)

The skeletal rock didn’t affect Earth on its 2015 flyby, and the asteroid won’t have any effect on the planet during its more-distant November pass-by. However, researchers have found that the asteroid is not just spooky, but also special. According to NASA researchers, the asteroid’s oblong orbit and its velocity suggest that it might be a dead comet, stripped of its icy debris tail by too many trips around the sun. Comet tails are tails of dust and gas that stream behind a comet due to solar radiation.

While the Halloween asteroid won’t be coming very close to Earth on its flyby, there will be a few close shaves with other space rocks in the near future. According to Max-Planck-Institut für extraterrestrische Physik scientist Thomas G. Müller, an asteroid dubbed 1999 AN10 will pass 185,911 miles from Earth on Aug. 7, 2027. On April 13, 2029, an asteroid named 99942 Apophis, after the Egyptian god of evil, will whiz by Earth at a distance of only 23,239 miles, about a tenth of the distance from the Earth to the moon.