Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

83 – 72  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu
83 – 77  Molokai AP
90 – 78 Kahului AP, Maui – 93 was the record high temperature Thursday
88 – 76  Kailua Kona
90 – 73   Hilo, Hawaii – 90 broke the old high temperature record…which was 89 back in 1995

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Thursday evening:

0.85  Omao, Kauai
2.17  Dillingham, Oahu
3.07  Molokai
1.61  Lanai
 1.35  Kahoolawe
3.24  Lahainaluna, Maui
3.02  Pali 2, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Thursday evening:

24  Barking Sands, Kauai
21  Kuaokala, Oahu
07  Molokai
04  Lanai
16  Kahoolawe
20  Kula 1, Maui
18  Waikoloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/avn-animated.gif
An upper level low pressure system is spinning to the north, while Hurricane Rosa remains active in the eastern Pacific…although won’t be an issue for Hawaii / click images to enlarge

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Heavy clouds in the vicinity of the central islands, with a tropical disturbance to the south-southeast…which will likely move by south of the Hawaiian Islands


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Partly to mostly cloudy…with localized thunderstorms

 

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally and offshore…some are heavy
 Looping image

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: A low pressure system and weak cold front northwest of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly lift northward. High pressure will then build back in north of the state Friday, allowing a return to a wet trade wind weather pattern into Saturday. Drier air will filter in from the east Sunday with decreasing cloud and shower trends through Monday. Light south to southeasterly winds will bring a return to hot and humid weather around the middle of next week…with additional showers as another low sets up northwest of the state.

Details: A large low pressure system and weak cold front remains northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, keeping a hot and humid southerly flow over the state for one more day. This low will continue to drift slowly northward with a low pressure trough over the islands weakening, as the subtropical ridge builds back into the area. Deep tropical moisture lingers over the islands with enhanced shower activity across the state. Higher shower trends are forecast from Oahu to Maui. Some of these showers will become locally heavy at times with an elevated potential for localized flooding and isolated thunderstorms.

Yet another low pressure area will pass south of the Hawaii Friday into the early part of the weekend, as the high pressure ridge builds north of the state, allowing trade winds to return with a wet trade wind pattern. The convergence band producing frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms will drift back westward over Kauai Friday. For all other islands during this period…clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas.

Looking Ahead: Longer range models continue to show drier air moving in behind the tropical disturbance Sunday into Monday…with the potential for southerly winds returning by next week Tuesday. This would occur as another early season cold front approaches the Kauai side of the island chain.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: Light to moderate southerly winds will continue across most Hawaiian waters, due to a weak surface trough located just west of Kauai. The pressure gradient will tighten tonight into this weekend, as surface high pressure builds to the north and an area of low pressure is expected to pass to the south of the area, possibly as a tropical cyclone. The latest forecast continues to show Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds developing over the typically windier waters adjacent to the Big Island and the islands of Maui County Friday night. The increasing trade winds, plus the potential of a fetch developing with a tropical cyclone, could cause seas to build over additional waters starting Saturday.

Small south-southeast swell energy will maintain surf along most south facing shores. A small to moderate south-southwest swell is expected to arrive tonight through Friday, then hold into early next week. A slightly larger reinforcing south-southwest swell source is expected to arrive next Tuesday.

A new north-northwest swell arriving tonight is expected to build surf to moderate levels along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands Friday through this weekend. The close proximity of the swell source to the islands will result surf heights below advisory levels.

If the aforementioned tropical cyclone were to develop southeast of the islands later this week, it could increase surf heights along some shorelines by later this weekend or early next week, although it’s still too early to know if a high surf advisory may be needed. Regardless, expect the strengthening trade winds to cause rough surf to build along most east facing shorelines Friday into early next week.



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean…including Tropical Storm Kirk…and a tropical disturbance

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Hurricane 20E (Rosa) in the eastern Pacific…and Typhoon 28W (Tamir), and Tropical Depression 29W, and Tropical Cyclone 02P in the western and south Pacific


>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm Kirk

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map

According to the NHC Advisory 19…Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk or its remnants will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next day or two. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight, and then degenerate into a trough of low pressure on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles mainly to the east of the center.

1.) Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is located over the central Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles west of the Azores. Shower activity has gradually increased near the center of the cyclone since last night and Leslie is expected to once again become a subtropical storm later today or tomorrow. Earlier satellite data indicated that the powerful low is producing storm-force winds that extend several hundred miles from the center, and Leslie will likely continue producing strong winds and high seas over a large portion of the central Atlantic for the next few days regardless of when it completes its transition to a subtropical storm.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 20E (Rosa)

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map

According to the NHC Advisory 14…Rosa is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph. A continued northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north by Saturday night. By early next week, Rosa is forecast to turn toward the north-northeast and increase its forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is anticipated today. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on Saturday, but a steady weakening trend is anticipated to begin by Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles .

1.) An area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to gradually become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent


>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low level circulation center located about 600 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions remain conducive for this system to become a tropical depression this week while it moves west at around 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 28W (Trami)

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

Tropical Depression 30W 

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

>>> South Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 02P (Liua) – Final Warning

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting: More Persistent Weather Patterns in U.S. Linked to Arctic Warming / Rutgers-led study suggests extreme weather will become more common – Persistent weather conditions, including dry and wet spells, generally have increased in the United States, perhaps due to rapid Arctic warming, according to a Rutgers-led study.

Persistent weather conditions can lead to weather extremes such as drought, heat waves, prolonged cold and storms that can cost millions of dollars in damage and disrupt societies and ecosystems, the study says.

Scientists at Rutgers University–New Brunswick and the University of Wisconsin-Madison examined daily precipitation data at 17 stations across the U.S., along with large upper-level circulation patterns over the eastern Pacific Ocean and North America.

Overall, dry and wet spells lasting four or more days occurred more frequently in recent decades, according to the study published online in Geophysical Research Letters. The frequency of persistent large-scale circulation patterns over North America also increased when the Arctic was abnormally warm.

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming at least twice as fast as the global average temperature, the study notes. The persistence of warm Arctic patterns has also increased, suggesting that long-duration weather conditions will occur more often as rapid Arctic warming continues, said lead author Jennifer Francis, a research professor in Rutgers’ Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences.

“While we cannot say for sure that Arctic warming is the cause, we found that large-scale patterns with Arctic warming are becoming more frequent, and the frequency of long-duration weather conditions increases most for those patterns,” said Francis, who works in the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences.

The results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm and melt, it’s likely that long-duration events will continue to occur more often, meaning that weather patterns – heat waves, droughts, cold spells and stormy conditions – will likely become more persistent, she said.

“When these conditions last a long time, they can become extreme events, as we’ve seen so often in recent years,” she said. “Knowing which types of events will occur more often in which regions and under what background conditions – such as certain ocean temperature patterns – will help decision-makers plan for the future in terms of infrastructure improvements, agricultural practices, emergency preparedness and managed retreat from hazardous areas.”

Future research will expand the analysis to other regions of the Northern Hemisphere, develop new metrics to find causal connections, and analyze projections to assess future risks from extreme weather events linked to persistent patterns, she said.