Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

82 – 73  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 71  Molokai AP
93 – 70  Kahului AP, Maui – 94 was the record high temperature Tuesday
89 – 76  Kailua Kona
89 – 71  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Tuesday evening:

3.33  Poipu, Kauai
0.02  Kuaokala, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.19  Kepuni, Maui
1.16  Waiakea Uka, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Tuesday evening:

24  Lihue, Kauai
27  Kuaokala, Oahu
13  Molokai
13  Lanai
13  Kahoolawe
14  Hana, Maui
25  Puna Geothermal, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs


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An upper level low pressure system is spinning to the north-northwest, while soon to be Hurricane Rosa remains active in the eastern Pacific…although won’t be an issue for Hawaii / click images to enlarge

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Heavy clouds north of Oahu


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Clear to partly cloudy…cloudy areas

 

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Showers locally and offshore…some are heavy
 Looping image

 

Flash Flood Watch on Kauai

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Low pressure north of Kauai will move each during the next couple of days, with an associated trough slowly moving eastward toward the islands. High moisture levels with southerly winds ahead of the trough will bring frequent showers to Kauai through tonight, with heavy rainfall possible. Muggy conditions are expected to continue across the state through much of the week, as the trough slowly weakens. A more typical trade wind pattern should return by Friday…with trades becoming stronger during the weekend.

Details: A large area of rain is moving into the western islands from the south. A few lightning strikes have been detected from time to time across the offshore waters from Kauai. Generally dry conditions prevail across the remainder of the state. Weather maps show an elongated low pressure trough northwest and west of Kauai. Southeast to south winds ahead of this trough are bringing a muggy airmass northward over the state.

High moisture will continue over Kauai, edging eastward into the Kauai Channel. Look for frequent showers, some heavy, along with a chance of thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours will remain possible over Kauai during this time, and we’ll have to keep an eye on the eastward progression of this activity…as it may reach Oahu. The remainder of the state will see a continuation of a southeast to south breezes, with scattered showers possible over the islands…especially in the afternoons.

Looking Ahead: Models show above normal moisture lingering over much of the state Wednesday through the Friday. Heavy rains will become less likely, as the upper trough to our north loses it influence. A surface trough to our north will maintain a light southerly flow through at least Thursday, with warm and muggy weather prevailing.

Trade winds should resume Thursday night or Friday as weak high pressure builds to our north, and a tropical low pressure area possibly develops to our south. Longer range guidance shows the tropical low developing further during the upcoming weekend, as it tracks off to the southwest and west of the islands, while stronger trades and drier conditions return to the state.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: Light to moderate southerly winds will continue across the Hawaiian waters through mid-week, as low pressure to the northwest slowly lifts north-northeastward. Plenty of moisture and instability will support moderate to heavy showers at times, especially over the western waters. Winds and seas will be higher in and around any heavy shower or storms that develop. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the weekend as high pressure builds to the north, and a potential tropical cyclone develops and passes by to the south. Seas will quickly respond and build, potentially reaching advisory levels Saturday through Sunday over exposed waters.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through mid-week, with mainly south-southeast energy expected. A small to moderate south-southwest swell is expected to fill in Thursday night through Friday, then hold into the upcoming weekend before lowering. A slightly larger reinforcing south-southwest source will be possible early next week.

Surf along north facing shores is expected to reach moderate levels over the upcoming weekend.



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World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean…including Tropical Storm Kirk…and several tropical disturbances

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Hurricane 20E (Rosa) in the eastern Pacific…and Typhoon 28W (Tamir), and Tropical Depression 29W in the western Pacific


>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm Kirk

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map

1.) A weak low pressure area located about 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing disorganized shower activity, well to the east of the center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development of this system. The low is forecast to move northeastward this morning, and it could produce scattered showers and dangerous surf and rip currents across eastern North Carolina as it passes by. The low is expected to continue moving northeastward and merge with a frontal system or dissipate offshore of the New England coast on Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

2.) Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores is producing disorganized shower activity and gale-force winds. Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics on Thursday or Friday while the cyclone meanders over the north-central Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 20E (Rosa)

NHC textual advisory
NHC graphical track map

According to the NHC Advisory 6…Rosa is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph, and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next two days. A turn to the northwest is expected by Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds have quickly increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts, and rapid strengthening is forecast to continue through tonight. Afterward, strengthening should continue at a slower rate through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.

1.) A broad area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern coast of Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward well offshore the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 28W (Trami)

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

Tropical Depression 29W 

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting: Planet Earth Wobbles As It Spins, and Now Scientists Know Why – Humans are responsible for some of the wobble in Earth’s spin.

Since 1899, the Earth’s axis of spin has shifted about 34 feet. Now, research quantifies the reasons why and finds that a third is due to melting ice and rising sea levels, particularly in Greenland — placing the blame on the doorstep of anthropogenic climate change.

Another third of the wobble is due to land masses expanding upward as the glaciers retreat and lighten their load. The final portion is the fault of the slow churn of the mantle, the viscous middle layer of the planet.

“We have provided evidence for more than one single process that is the key driver” for altering the Earth’s axis, said Surendra Adhikari, an Earth system scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and a lead researcher on the new study.

Wobbly Earth

Scientists have long known that the distribution of mass around the Earth determines its spin, much like how the shape and weight distribution of a spinning top determines how it moves. Also, Earth’s spin isn’t perfectly even, as scientists know thanks to slight wiggles in the movements of the stars across the night sky that have been recorded for thousands of years, said Erik Ivins, a study co-author and a senior research scientist at JPL. Since the 1990s, space-based measurements have also confirmed that the Earth’s axis of rotation drifts by a few centimeters a year, generally toward Hudson Bay in northeastern Canada.

Researchers knew that a proportion of this wobble was caused by glacial isostatic adjustment, an ongoing process since the end of the last ice age 16,000 years ago. As the glaciers retreat, they relieve the land underneath of their mass. Gradually, over thousands of years, the land responds to this relief by rising like bread dough. (In some places on the edges of the ancient ice sheets, the land might also collapse because the ice had forced it to bulge upward.)

But in the new research, published in the November issue of the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Adhikari and his colleagues found that glacial isostatic adjustment was only responsible for about 1.3 inches of axis wobble per year. That was only about a third of the wobble — 4 inches — observed each year over the 20th century.

To fill in the gap, the research team built a computer model of the physics of Earth’s spin, feeding in data about changes in the balance of land-based ice and ocean waters over the 20th century. The researchers also accounted for other shifts in land and water, such as groundwater depletion and the building of artificial reservoirs, all part of humanity’s terraforming of the planet.

The results revealed that these environmental processes cause another 1.7 inches of wobble each year. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet was a particularly important contributor, the researchers found. That’s because Greenland has released a large amount of water that was once locked up on land into the oceans, where its mass has been redistributed. Mountain glaciers and small ice caps elsewhere have also contributed to sea-level rise, he said; but they aren’t as concentrated, and their effects on the Earth’s rotation often cancel each other out.

Core considerations

The glaciers and the ice melt still left a third of the wobble unaccounted for, so Adhikari and his team looked inward. The Earth’s mantle is not static, he said, but moves by the process of convection: Hotter material from closer to the core rises and cooler material sinks in a cycle of vertical motion. By including convection in the model of Earth’s wobble, the researchers had accounted for the last third of the changes in the spin over the 20th century.

It’s important to realize that this wobble isn’t the prelude to any sort of environmental calamity, Ivins and Adhikari said. It doesn’t affect agriculture or climate in and of itself, and any small impact on navigational equipment is easy to correct for.

“The amount [of drift] is not a huge amount,” Adhikari said.

But it does give scientists a way to figure out where Earth’s mass is and where it’s going. For example, Adhikari said, Greenland’s melt has become an increasingly large contributor to changing the axis location in the past 15 years, which is pushing the drift eastward.

“That fact is important for climate scientists,” Ivins said, “because they can understand, in a global sense, which are the most important mass transports that are going on today.”