Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:
80 – 71 Lihue, Kauai
83 – 72 Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 72 Molokai AP
88 – 76 Kahului AP, Maui
92 – 78 Kailua Kona
84 – 73 Hilo, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Thursday evening:
3.75 Kilohana , Kauai
8.63 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu!
3.58 Molokai
1.34 Lanai
0.19 Kahoolawe
4.89 West Wailuaiki, Maui
7.53 Glenwood, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Thursday evening:
29 Port Allen, Kauai
39 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
33 Molokai
35 Lanai
40 Kahoolawe
39 Maalaea Bay, Maui
27 Waikoloa, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olivia is moving away…with no more storms of threat on the horizon / click images to enlarge
Partly to mostly cloudy, heavy clouds in the wake of Olivia…causing locally heavy rains
Showers locally and offshore…some are heavy
Looping image
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Broad Brush Overview: A low pressure system aloft north of the islands will pass northwest of Kauai. Instability from this low combined with remnant moisture from Olivia, will keep the weather unsettled across the state through late tonight. A drier and a little more stable atmosphere will spread across the islands over the weekend…with more normal trade wind weather returning.
Details: Off and on wet weather continues to affect much of the state, as moisture associated with Olivier is still present. Look for localized unsettled and wet weather to persist across the state…with the threat of heavy rain continuing. There’s the chance of thunderstorms in some areas. The heaviest rain will likely affect the western islands of Kauai and Oahu.
Looking Ahead: The models indicate a drier as well as a more stable airmass spreading to the islands beginning Friday. Meanwhile, a surface high will prevail far north of the state, providing trade winds to the area. Therefore, seasonal trade wind weather is expected to return to the islands over the weekend…into early next week.
Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website
Marine Environmental Conditions: Swell from Olivia is quickly dropping off. A small northwest swell is expected to peak now. A small south swell is likely over the weekend, with another small northwest swell expected late in the weekend and early next week.
World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity
Here’s the Thursday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, including Hurricane 06L (Florence), Hurricane 08L (Helene), Tropical Storm 09L (Isaac)…and Tropical Storm 10L (Joyce)
Here’s the Thursday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Supertyphoon 26W (Mangkhut)…and Tropical Depression 27W (Barijat)
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Hurricane 06L (Florence)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 60A…Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph. A slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight. Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. A wind gust to 105 mph recently occurred at the Wilmington Airport, an Amateur Radio operator in Kirkland recently reported a wind gust to 98 mph, and a wind gust of 95 mph was also recently reported by a Weatherflow private weather station at Federal Point.
Tropical Storm 08L (Helene)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 28A…Helene is moving toward the north near 23 mph. A turn toward the northeast is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track, Helene will pass near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is expected after Helene becomes a post-tropical cyclone over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
Tropical Depression 09L (Isaac)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 27…The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph, and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph with higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time.
Tropical Storm 10L (Joyce)
Here’s what the computer models are showing
According to the NHC Advisory 7…Joyce is moving toward the south-southwest near 8 mph. Joyce is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by tonight, and then accelerate northeastward over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Joyce is expected to weaken early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
1.) A broad area of low pressure could form near Bermuda late this weekend or early next week. Additional development, if any, is expected to be slow while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
>>> Caribbean Sea:
>>> Gulf of Mexico:
1.) Shower activity has changed little in organization in association with an elongated area of low pressure located over the western Gulf of Mexico. Although this system probably will not develop into a tropical depression before it moves onshore of Texas later today, it is likely to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas through Saturday. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
1.) A large area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:
Supertyphoon 26W (Mangkhut)
JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map
Tropical Depression 27W (Barijat) – Final Warning
JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Here’s How to Make the Sahara Desert Green Again – The Sahara is the world’s largest hot desert, but parts of it could be made green if massive solar and wind farms set up shop there, a new study finds.
These farms could increase rain in the Sahara, especially in the neighboring Sahel region, a semiarid area that lies south of the giant desert, the researchers said in the study, which was published online Sept. 7 in the journal Science.
“This increase in precipitation, in turn, leads to an increase in vegetation cover, creating a positive feedback loop,” study co-lead researcher Yan Li, a postdoctoral researcher in natural resources and environmental sciences at the University of Illinois, said in a statement.
Researchers already knew that wind and solar farms can increase the heat and humidity in the areas immediately around them. But this study is among the first to model how wind and solar farms would affect the Sahara, all while considering how growing green plants and trees would respond to these changes, said Li, who started the study while a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science at the University of Maryland.
“Previous modeling studies have shown that large-scale wind and solar farms can produce significant climate change at continental scales,” Li said. “But the lack of vegetation feedbacks could make the modeled climate impacts very different from their actual behavior.”
Li and his colleagues simulated what would happen if wind and solar farms covered more than 3.4 million square miles of the Sahara. On average, the wind farms would generate about 3 terawatts, while the solar farms would generate 79 terawatts of electrical power in one year, they found.
That’s a lot of energy. One terawatt can power about 10 billion 100-watt light bulbs simultaneously. “In 2017, the global energy demand was only 18 terawatts, so this is obviously much more energy than is currently needed worldwide,” Li said.
The model also showed that wind farms caused localized air temperatures to warm.
“Greater nighttime warming takes place because wind turbines can enhance the vertical mixing and bring down warmer air from above,” the researchers wrote in the study. Rain also increased as much as 0.01 inches per day, on average, in areas with wind farms, the researchers found.
“This was a doubling of precipitation over that seen in the control experiments,” Li said.
The Sahel would see even more rain; an increase of 0.04 inches a day in areas with wind farms, which would help vegetation there grow, the researchers said. That translates to an increase of between 8 and 20 inches of rain a year in the Sahel, enough that it would not be classified as a desert. (Deserts, by definition, are areas that receive less than 10 inches of annual rainfall.)
The solar farms would also have a positive effect on temperature and rainfall, the researchers noted.
“We found that the large-scale installation of solar and wind farms can bring more rainfall and promote vegetation growth in these regions,” study co-lead researcher Eugenia Kalnay, a distinguished professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science at the University of Maryland, said in the statement. “The rainfall increase is a consequence of complex land-atmosphere interactions that occur because solar panels and wind turbines create rougher and darker land surfaces.”
If this model ever becomes a reality, “the increase in rainfall and vegetation, combined with clean electricity as a result of solar and wind energy, could help agriculture, economic development and social well-being in the Sahara, Sahel, Middle East and other nearby regions,” Safa Motesharrei, a systems scientist at the University of Maryland, said in the statement.
“The Sahara has been expanding for some decades, and solar and wind farms might help stop the expansion of this arid region,” Russ Dickerson, a leader on air quality research and a professor at the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science at the University of Maryland who was not involved in the study, said in a statement. “This looks like a win-win to me.”
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