Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

85 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 77  Molokai AP
89 – 75  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 75  Kailua Kona
86 – 72  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Tuesday evening:

0.29  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.07  Waipio Pump, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.04 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.40  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Tuesday evening:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
39  Kuaokala, Oahu
25  Molokai
32  Lanai
31  Kahoolawe
36  Maalaea Bay, Maui
36  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs


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 Tropical Cyclone 10E (Hector) will move by just south of the islands (click images to enlarge)

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Hurricane Hector…just south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

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Variable clouds, category 3 hurricane Hector…will brush by the Big Island

 

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Just a few showers locally and offshore…more south of the Big Island
   Looping image

 

Hurricane Warning…Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Tropical Storm Warning…NWS Statement

Hurricane Local Statement…NWS Statement

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island

High Surf Advisory/Warning…NWS Statement

Gale Warning…Alenuihaha and Pailolo Channels, and Maalaea Bay

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: A dry trade wind weather pattern with locally strong winds will continue, issuing from a strong high pressure system far to the north of the state. This trade wind weather pattern remains in place for much of the state, with scattered shower activity favoring windward and mountain areas through the weekend. Hurricane Hector will be passing into the Hawaii region later tonight through Thursday.

Wind speeds will trend higher across the state as Hector passes south of the island chain. Enhanced shower activity remains in the forecast for the eastern slopes of the Big Island. Hector will then exit the region by Friday, with a return to typical summertime trade wind weather pattern for the Big Island.

Details: Trade winds will trend higher as Hurricane Hector tracks south of the state starting later tonight through Thursday. Large scale subsidence aloft will continue to keep a strong trade wind inversion around 5000 to 6000 feet elevation, capping cloud heights and limiting shower activity. Scattered showers will remain limited to windward and mountain areas with better chances for showers in the overnight hours.

The current forecast for Hurricane Hector keeps the center of the storm passing south of the Hawaiian Islands. Weather impacts for each island remains highly dependent on Hector’s track and intensity. Trade wind speeds will trend higher as pressure gradients increase with Hector’s passage to the south.

An area of deep tropical moisture associated with Hector will produce an increase in rain showers over eastern slopes of the Big Island, with the highest precipitation amounts forecast over southeast sections of the Puna and Kau Districts, as surface winds become more southeasterly on Wednesday. Other areas of the state may see little change in rainfall from current levels.

Looking Ahead: As we push into Friday and the weekend, Hector will have exited the area. High pressure north of the state will provide for a typical trade wind weather pattern through the weekend. Clouds and passing showers will tend to favor windward and mountain areas…with most leeward areas remaining dry through the weekend.

Volcanic emissions for the Kilauea volcano area will remain in a trade wind flow pattern through Wednesday morning with any emissions drifting southwest into the Kau district of the Big Island. By Wednesday evening wind directions will likely shift towards the southeast as Hurricane Hector passes by to the south of the Big Island.

These southeasterly winds will tend to push any emissions towards the northwest up through Hilo and along the northern slopes of the Big Island through Thursday. Easterly trade winds are expected to return on Friday with any volcanic emissions drifting back towards the southwest through the weekend.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: A series of small south swells are expected through Wednesday. A small north swell is expected to arrive late today, peak tonight and Wednesday, then lower gradually Thursday and Friday.

Expect the swells generated by Hurricane Hector to gradually increase through Wednesday, and this will result in increasing surf along east facing shores of the Big Island and East Maui. A High Surf Warning has been issued for the Big Island, and a High Surf Advisory for Maui, both starting at noon today. As Hector moves to the west and is south and southwest of the islands, the swell will transition to a south swell.

Shorelines of the smaller islands will be less impacted as they will be somewhat shadowed by the Big Island and Maui until Hector moves further west. There will be a period of high astronomical tides this week, so low lying coastal areas may have some coastal inundation issues. Stay tuned for the latest updates on Hector and its potential impacts on winds, seas, and surf across the area.

Fire Weather: Wind speeds will remain breezy today, especially down wind of terrain, with gusts from 20 to 30 mph over mountain ranges and through leeward valley areas. A drier and more stable air mass will continue to limit shower activity across the state with isolated to scattered showers lingering over windward and mountain sections. Although critical fire weather thresholds will likely not be crossed during the next couple of days, many of the ingredients will remain in place for elevated fire activity. Hurricane Hector will be crossing through the region from tonight through Thursday. Trade wind speeds will trend higher as the system passes to the south of the state from tonight through Thursday. Enhanced rain showers, locally heavy at times, will develop along eastern slopes of the Big Island through the same time period.



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World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Here’s the Wednesday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering Tropical Storm Debby

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Tropical Cyclone 17W (Shanshan), Tropical Cyclone 18W..and Tropical Cyclone 10E (Hector), Tropical Cyclone 12E (John) and Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kristy)


>>> Atlantic Ocean:  

Tropical Cyclone Debby remains active in the north Atlantic…although is expected to be short-lived

> Here’s what the models are showing for this system

According to the NHC…Debby is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph, and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward the northeast is forecast by this afternoon, and that motion should continue into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change is strength is forecast today, with slow weakening expected to begin late tonight or on Thursday. Debby is forecast to dissipate over the far northern Atlantic by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/ir4-l.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 12E (John) remains active…as a hurricane

> Here’s a looping satellite image of the northeast Pacific

> Here’s what the models are showing for this hurricane

According to the NHC… John is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn back toward the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later this morning, with that motion continuing for the next few days. On the forecast track, John will pass well to the southwest of Baja California Sur today and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and John is expected to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –

RAINFALL: John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by John will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

NHC textual advisory

 

Tropical Cyclone 13E (Kristy) remains active…as a tropical storm

> Here’s a looping satellite image of the northeast Pacific

> Here’s what the models are showing for this TS

According to the NHC…Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. A turn toward the northwest is forecast late today, followed by a turn to the north on Friday, with that motion continuing into Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:  

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 10E (Hector) remains active…and is Major Category 3 hurricane

> Here’s a looping satellite image of the central Pacific

> Here’s what the models are showing for this Hurricane

> Here’s a near real time wind profile for 10E

According to the CPHC…Hector is moving toward the west near 16 mph, and this same general motion is expected to continue through Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts. . Some slight weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Hector will likely remain a powerful and dangerous hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 17W (Shanshan)


Tropical Cyclone 18W (Yagi)


>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting: Pacific Ocean’s Effect on Arctic Warming – New research, led by former Carnegie postdoctoral fellow Summer Praetorius, shows that changes in the heat flow of the northern Pacific Ocean may have a larger effect on the Arctic climate than previously thought. The findings are published in the August 7, 2018, issue of Nature Communications.

The Arctic is experiencing larger and more rapid increases in temperature from global warming more than any other region, with sea-ice declining faster than predicted. This effect, known as Arctic amplification, is a well-established response that involves many positive feedback mechanisms in polar regions.

What has not been well understood is how sea-surface temperature patterns and oceanic heat flow from Earth’s different regions, including the temperate latitudes, affect these polar feedbacks. This new research suggests that the importance of changes occurring in the Pacific may have a stronger impact on Arctic climate than previously recognized.

Paleoclimate records show that climate change in the Arctic can be very large and happen very rapidly. During the last deglaciation, as the planet was starting to warm from rising greenhouse gases, there were two episodes of accelerated warming in the Arctic—with temperatures increasing by 27°F in Greenland over the course of decades. Both events were accompanied by rapid warming in the mid-latitude North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans.

Using these past changes as motivation for the current study, the research team* modeled a series of ocean-to-atmosphere heat flow scenarios for the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. They used the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model (CESM), to assess the impacts to the Arctic’s surface temperature and climate feedbacks.

Praetorius, who was at Carnegie at the time of the research and is now with the USGS in Menlo Park, CA explained: “Since there appeared to be coupling between abrupt Arctic temperature changes and sea surface temperature changes in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific in the past, we thought it was important to untangle how each region may affect the Arctic differently in order to provide insight into recent and future Arctic changes.”

The researchers found that both cooling and warming anomalies in the North Pacific resulted in greater global and Arctic surface air temperature anomalies than the same perturbations modeled for the North Atlantic. Until now, this sensitivity had been underappreciated.

The scientists looked at several mechanisms that could be causing the changes and found that the strong global and Arctic changes depended on the magnitude of water vapor transfer from the mid-latitude oceans to the Arctic. When warm moist air is carried poleward towards the Arctic, it can lead to more low-lying clouds that act like a blanket, trapping warmth near the surface. The poleward movement of heat and moisture drive the Arctic’s sea-ice retreat and low-cloud formation, amplifying Arctic warming.

The so-called ice-albedo feedback causes retreating ice and snow to lead to ever greater warming through increasing absorption of solar energy on darker surfaces.

In very recent years, the Arctic has experienced an even greater acceleration in warming. The authors note that the unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Northeast Pacific paralleled the uptick in Arctic warming, possibly signaling a stronger link between these regions than generally recognized.

“While this is a highly idealized study, our results suggest that changes in the Pacific Ocean may have a larger influence on the climate system than generally recognized,” remarked Carnegie coauthor Ken Caldeira.