Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

88 – 79  Lihue, Kauai
91 – 80  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 74  Molokai AP
90 – 77  Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 75  Kailua Kona
85 – 73  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Monday evening:

3.33  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.16  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.18  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.27  Kula Branch Stn, Maui
0.57  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Monday evening:

21  Poipu, Kauai
32  Kuaokala, Oahu
30  Molokai
31  Lanai
33  Kahoolawe
35  Maalaea Bay, Maui
35  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs


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 Hurricane 14E (Lane) is moving westward through the central Pacific (click images to enlarge)

 

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The classic cloud signature…with a near perfect eyewall!


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We’ll need to keep a very close eye on Hurricane Lane…as it moves close to Hawaii (this is the most official forecast for the track that Lane will take)

 

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Category 4 Hurricane Lane is approaching to the southeast

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Clear to partly cloudy, cloudy areas locally…Hurricane Lane to the lower right

 

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Clouds arriving on the trades from the east…while high clouds come up from the west-southwest

 

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Showers locally and offshore
 Looping image

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Small Craft Advisory…Maalaea Bay, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels

High Surf Advisory…east facing shores of of Maui and the Big Island

Hurricane Warning…Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Tropical Storm Watch…Strong winds associated with Hurricane Lane may impact waters south of the Big Island as early as Wednesday morning, with rough seas and swells expected to increase Tuesday night. (A Tropical Storm Watch means sustained winds of 34 to 63 kt are possible within 48 hours.)

Hydrologic Outlook…The latest forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center indicates that the center of Hurricane Lane will pass south and southwest of the islands this week. As the impacts from a hurricane extend well away from the center, associated heavy rains are expected to impact the islands.

Latest forecast models indicate that, regardless of the eventual track and intensity of Lane, an extremely moist and unstable air mass will move over the islands beginning late Wednesday, and will remain in place through the end of the week. This is expected to result in very heavy rainfall, potentially leading to flash flooding.

 

Broad Brush Overview: High pressure north of the state will provide for a typical trade wind weather pattern across the area through Tuesday. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas, with just a few brief light showers expected over select leeward locations. For the remainder of the week, the forecast will be highly dependent on the track and intensity of Hurricane Lane. An increase in winds and showers will be the likely result…based on the latest forecast for Lane.

Details: A surface high pressure system far northeast of the state continues to shift south-southwestward. Meanwhile another high pressure center far northwest of the state is advancing east. This will allow a tightening of pressure gradient across the area, resulting in an increase in trade winds for the state. Meanwhile, a more typical trade wind weather has returned across the state, with passing low clouds and showers affecting mainly windward and mountain areas. High clouds will stream over the area…obscuring our Hawaiian sunshine periodically.

The two highs mentioned above will gradually merge, taking up a position far north Tuesday. This will lead to a further strengthening in trade wind speeds across area. The somewhat dry and stable airmass will persist over the islands as well. Therefore, look for breezy trade wind weather for the islands Tuesday, with passing low clouds and showers affecting mainly windward and mountain areas. Lee areas of the smaller islands may also see some clouds and showers…as winds may be strong enough to carry them over.

Looking Ahead:  As we push into mid-week through the weekend, our weather will be highly dependent on the track and intensity of Hurricane Lane. It’s still too early to determine what weather impacts Lane will have on the state. The last forecast track from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center still has Lane passing south of the main Hawaiian Islands, although has it tracking closer to the island chain as well.

If this track holds, the potential impacts on the islands weather would be an increase in wind speeds, due to a tightened pressure gradient between high pressure north of the state and Lane traversing to our south. Also moisture associated with Lane would likely bring an increase in shower activity over the Big Island Wednesday…then eventually spreading up the island chain through the remainder of the week

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: A weak surface trough west of Kauai will move away from the area, as high pressure builds to the north. This will result in a gradually increasing trade wind flow through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been posted for the windier areas around Maui and the Big Island in anticipation of the increasing trade wind flow. As Hurricane Lane moves into an area south of the islands by mid-week, the pressure gradient will likely increase, likely leading to increasing trade winds, and potentially an expansion of the SCA. More significantly, Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Watches may be required for portions of the southern coastal waters. There is significant uncertainty regarding the position and intensity of Lane later in the week, so it is too early to determine what impacts Lane may eventually bring, and mariners need to continue to closely monitor forecasts.

East-southeast swells from Hurricane Lane are building at a buoy to the southeast of the Big Island. A High Surf Advisory for east facing shores of Maui and the Big Island is now in effect. As Hurricane Lane moves into an area south of the islands later this week, south swell will likely increase, with rough and potentially damaging surf. Still significant uncertainty and difficult to know the level of impacts, but there is potential for large seas/swells from Lane…leading to warning-level surf along east through south facing shores of the islands. A small north-northwest swell is expected to arrive and peak Tuesday before gradually diminishing Wednesday and Thursday.



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World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Here’s the Tuesday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Tropical Cyclone 22W (Soulik), Tropical Cyclone 23W (Cimaron) and Tropical Cyclone 14E (Lane)


>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Central Pacific: 

Hurricane 14E (Lane) remains a Category 4 TC

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this hurricane

Aircraft reconnaissance missions are gathering additional information about Lane and the atmospheric environment around the hurricane. This additional data should help to improve forecast guidance for Lane’s future this week.

According to NOAA’s best track database…there is no record of a hurricane track within 65 nautical miles of either Maui or Honolulu since statehood. (August 21, 1959)


There have been three notable hurricanes that struck the western island of Kauai during that time: Iniki in 1992, Iwa in 1982 and Dot in 1959.

According to the CPHC…Lane is moving toward the west near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, with some slowing in forward speed. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts. Slight weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND –

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands this week. These swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along exposed shorelines.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane could affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the weekend, leading to flash flooding and mud slides.

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 22W (Soulik)


>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting: Near Two Million Acres On Fire in the United States – The West Coast of the United States is shrouded in smoke from the 110 large fires (this does not include smaller fires within each complex of fires) that have erupted across the region during this fire season. Over 1.9 million acres are or have been ablaze. Six new large fires were reported in Idaho, Nevada and Oregon over the weekend and eight large fires have been contained including the Ferguson Fire near Yosemite National Park in California.

The weather concerns in the area include warmer than average temperatures that will continue in the west with diurnal winds and marginal overnight humidity recoveries. Isolated storms will be possible along and west of the Continental Divide in Montana and Wyoming.  These storms could also bring more lightning strikes and more blazes to areas with increasingly dry conditions.  A breezy easterly flow will blow across the western half of Montana and possibly northern Idaho that could possibly allow fires to spread farther. With the center of the high pressure area located mostly over southern California, the normal wind flow will be suppressed and the rain that might come to this area will be contained mainly in areas near the Mexican Border which will not help firefighting efforts. Further north, low pressure will bring cooler temperatures and possibly isolated storms to the Pacific Northwest.

National Preparedness Level is at the highest level of 5.  This level includes national mobilization heavily committed to fighting active fires and taking measure to support these geographic areas that are on fire;  taking emergency measures to sustain incident operations on active fires; providing ongoing full commitment of national resources; filling resource orders at the National Interagency Coordination Center by coordinating requests with Geographic Area Coordination Centers as resources become available; and recognizing that the potential for emerging significant wildland fires is high and expected to remain high in multiple geographic areas.

Smoke from these fires has traveled along the west to east jet stream and that stream is bringing the smoke across the country as far as the East Coast.   NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh-Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) air quality modeling system is a web-based system that runs in real time and also is predictive of where the smoke may travel taking into account the movements the atmosphere normally takes following the laws of science.  Those movements can be calculated mathematically which produces a forecast. The HRRR-Smoke processes data from numerous sources, such as weather balloons, surface observations, aircraft, satellites and other atmospheric monitoring resources to approximate the physics, chemistry and dynamics of the atmosphere but at high resolutions on some of the most powerful computers in existence

This map (10am EDT on August 20, 2018) is an experimental model showing both upper level or near-surface smoke.  This particular iteration of the map is showing the near-surface smoke (expressed in ?g/m3) from the HRRR-Smoke Model. The Near-Surface Smoke overlays 10-meter wind data and is expressed in knots.  The colors represent the fire-emitted fine particulate matter (fire smoke) concentrations at ~8 meters above the ground.  The darker and redder the color the more concentrated the smoke particulates.  It is interesting to see how the smoke moves across the country traveling south as far as Texas and east as far as Quebec.  When wind patterns change, of course, so does the smoke pattern.  This map can be found here:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/ This map can be used to either see the smoke currently or forecast where the smoke is predicted to move. WTOP, a local radio station near Washington DC, reported that smoke from the California fires had reached the DC Metro area this past week.

Smoke from any type of wildfire is dangerous. The smoke released by any type of fire is a mixture of particles and chemicals produced by incomplete burning of carbon-containing materials. All smoke contains carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and particulate matter (PM or soot). Smoke can contain many different chemicals, including aldehydes, acid gases, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), benzene, toluene, styrene, metals and dioxins. The type and amount of particles and chemicals in smoke varies depending on what is burning, how much oxygen is available, and the burn temperature. Exposure to high levels of smoke should be avoided. Individuals are advised to limit their physical exertion if exposure to high levels of smoke cannot be avoided. Individuals with cardiovascular or respiratory conditions (e.g., asthma), fetuses, infants, young children, and the elderly may be more vulnerable to the health effects of smoke exposure.