Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / June 7-8, 2018

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

82 – 71  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 73  Molokai AP
85 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 73  Kailua Kona
83 – 68  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Thursday evening:

2.94  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.55  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.24  Molokai
0.01  Lanai
0.02  Kahoolawe
1.07  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.09  Pohakuloa Keamuku, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Thursday evening:

28  Port Allen, Kauai
40  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
25  Molokai
27  Lanai
33  Kahoolawe
30  Kahului AP, Maui
35  PTA Range 17, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Category 3 Hurricane Aletta…remains active in the eastern Pacific (click to enlarge)

High cirrus now east of the islands…thunderstorms far south

Partly to mostly cloudy…some clear areas

Showers locally and offshore – Looping image

 

Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation

Here’s the Vog Information website

Special Weather Statement…PERIODS OF ASHFALL LIKELY FROM KILAUEA VOLCANO…

Web cams and radar data indicate that occasional small bursts of volcanic ash continue to emanate from Halemaumau Crater. Low level trade winds will push ash toward the southwest, and any ash fallout will likely occur over the Kau District and Highway 11 southwest of the town of Volcano. This includes the communities of Pahala, Wood Valley, Naalehu and Ocean View.

With winds spreading ash in the same direction, repeated eruptions will lead to a heavier buildup of ash. In addition, any ash deposited over the last several days will likely be picked up by local winds, contributing to dusty conditions.

Avoid excessive exposure to ash which is an eye and respiratory irritant. Those with respiratory sensitivities should take extra precaution to minimize exposure.

 

Celebrating my Mom’s birthday…she’s 96 years old today!

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Moderate to locally strong trade winds will continue to blow across the island chain through the weekend, although winds may weaken slightly and shift to the east-southeast Friday. Trade showers will remain off and on active into Saturday, with a gradual drying trend expected by Sunday into Monday. Volcanic emissions (vog) from the Kilauea volcano may lift northwestward toward the smaller islands Friday and Saturday…as winds could shift to the southeast.

Details: Satellite imagery shows a weak low aloft just to the west of the Big Island, with associated high clouds over Maui county and the Big Island. As the low continues to move southeast, these clouds should clear all islands. Imagery also points out showery low clouds immediately upstream of the islands, which will likely continue to bring showers our way. While most of these showers are expected over windward areas, a few could briefly spread leeward on the smaller islands locally.

Weather maps show an elongated zone of high pressure to our north, which is supporting moderate to locally strong trade winds. Wind speeds near the islands are expected to diminish slightly, with a slight veering to an east-southeast or even southeast direction tonight into Friday. While these winds may potentially continue into Saturday, winds are expected to increase slightly Friday night and Saturday as the high strengthens. A gradual backing to a more typical trade wind direction is expected Sunday and Monday. Models suggest we may see a lighter trade wind flow arriving again during the second half of next week.

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure aloft is expected to bring a somewhat wet trade wind flow through Friday night, with some decrease in showers late Saturday and Sunday. Additionally, emissions from the Big Island’s active volcano may spread to portions of the Hilo district, or other areas on the Big Island, and even to other islands in the chain. Confidence is low as to the extent that vog will spread. If an explosive eruption at Halemaumau were to send ash up to 10,000 to 15,000 feet or higher…then this plume could spread northwest and north.

Tropical cyclone activity here in the central Pacific will remain absent, although we see Hurricane 02E (Aletta) in the eastern Pacific. This storm will move up well offshore from the south Mexico coast, and eventually offshore from the west coast of Baja, California. None of the models show this storm making its way to Hawaii. Meanwhile, there’s an area of disturbed weather active offshore from Central America…which looks like it will spin-up with time too.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map

Marine Environmental Conditions: Locally strong trade winds will be lowering a notch or two now, as the ridge north of the islands weakens. This will a brief interlude however, as locally strong trades should return Friday night to the typically windy areas. This comes about as a new high pressure system settles innorth-northeast of the islands by Friday night. Locally strong trades will continue into the weekend.

A new south swell will peak Friday afternoon, with surf rising to near the high surf advisory threshold for the south facing shores. A reinforcing south swell of a slightly smaller size, arrives and peaks Sunday. A gradual lowering follows through Monday. The locally strong trade winds will maintain choppy waters and modest surf along the east facing shores. The north and west facing shore will be getting a couple of small rises from the northwest going forward.

World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering Tropical Storm 05W (Ewiniar), and Hurricane 02E (Aletta) which remains active in the eastern Pacific, and finally a tropical disturbance offshore from Central America…which will become a tropical cyclone with time.

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

 

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 02E (Aletta)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

1.) Shower activity associated with a tropical wave centered a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become a little better organized since yesterday.

Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a looping satellite image of the eastern Pacific and south of Mexico

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi) 

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Storm 05W (Ewiniar) – Final Warning

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: 18-Year-Old Iceberg Dies on Spring Break Trip to South America – If being far from home ever gets you down, just be glad you aren’t also melting.

NASA scientists reported that, after drifting for nearly 20 years, the largest iceberg ever to break away from Antarctica’s Ross Ice Shelf is about to disappear forever.

Now floating northwest of the South Georgia islands near the tail of South America, the iceberg — named B-15 — has traveled more than 6,600 miles from the ice shelf and is veering dangerously close to the equator.

Satellite images taken from the International Space Station (ISS) on May 22 confirm that the remains of the iceberg are on a crash course with warm tropical waters, where growing pools of meltwater will soon “work [their] way through the iceberg like a set of knives,” NASA glaciologist Kelly Brunt said in a statement.

The freewheelin’, formerly Connecticut-size iceberg first embarked on its long cruise after breaking away from the Ross Ice Shelf in 2000, NASA said. At the time, it was the largest single chunk of ice ever to split off from the shelf, measuring 160 nautical miles long and 20 nautical miles wide. (That’s a total area of 3,200 square nautical miles — larger than the island of Jamaica.)

Currents swept the berg three-quarters of the way around Antarctica; then, it suddenly shifted northward into the southern Atlantic Ocean within the past year or two, NASA said.

The stately raft of ice has gradually splintered into many smaller pieces, most of which have already melted. Today, only four chunks remain with a large enough surface area to be trackable by the National Ice Center (20 square nautical miles is the minimum).

The chunk observed from the ISS last month (its name is B-15Z) still has a surface area of about 50 square nautical miles, but it is likely nearing the end of its journey as it floats ever closer to the equator. According to NASA, icebergs have been known to rapidly melt once they drift into this region. A large fracture is already visible at B-15Z’s center, and smaller pieces are crumbling away from its edges.

B-15 will be missed. But its fans may take solace in knowing that, thanks to climate change, another “largest iceberg ever” will probably break away soon enough.