Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / February 13-14, 2018

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

79 – 66  Lihue, Kauai
79 – 71  Honolulu, Oahu
80 – 60  Molokai AP
81 – 65  Kahului AP, Maui
82 – 70  Kailua Kona
87 – 64  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Tuesday evening:

0.19  Anahola, Kauai
0.68  Makaha Stream, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.89  Kepuni, Maui
0.37  Kealakomo, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Tuesday evening:

21  Makaha Ridge, Kauai
16  Wheeler AAF, Oahu
12  Molokai
12  Lanai
13  Kahoolawe
16  Maalaea Bay, Maui
20  Kohala Ranch, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Low pressure to the north…with an associated cold front 

This cold front will be moving down into the state

Abundant moisture is arriving…on the southwest kona winds

Showers locally…especially around Oahu
Looping image

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Flash Flood Watch…Oahu and Maui County

 Flood Advisory…most of Oahu

High Surf Advisory…north and west shores of Niihau and Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and north shore of Maui

Small Craft Advisory…northwest waters, windward and leeward waters around Kauai, and windward waters of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island

Broad Brush Overview: A moist and unstable weather pattern will prevail over most of the state the next couple of days, as an area of low pressure to the northwest moves closer. The approaching low will bring muggy weather, as well as periods of rain, some heavy at times…and a slight chance of thunderstorms. As the low weakens, a drying trend is expected toward the end of the week. This may be short-lived however, as another low develops nearby next weekend. Trade winds are not expected for at least the next week.

Details: Weather maps show a high pressure system far northeast, with an area of low pressure northwest of the islands. An associated cold front is northwest of Kauai, and moving towards the state. The southerly breezes are bringing increased low level moisture over the islands, which is supporting areas of showers locally. Meanwhile, the southwesterly flow aloft over the area, is carrying an area of overcast high cirrus clouds, which will linger over parts of the state into Wednesday…filtering and dimming our sunshine during the days.

Looking Ahead: The models show the approaching cold front will become less defined as it approaches the islands. A moist unstable south to southwest kona air flow will prevail over the next few days, with somewhat drier weather on the Big Island. Periods of heavy rain appear likely, with the potential for thunderstorms…especially Wednesday and Thursday. The threat of heavy rain will be greatest over  Kauai and Oahu at first, then spreading to Maui county and the Big Island.

Models don’t indicate overly abundant atmospheric moisture, although slow moving bands of moderate to heavy rain are possible. The most likely time frame for widespread flooding rains is Wednesday through Thursday, although moisture bands near Kauai and Oahu may trigger flooding rains today and tonight. This kona low is expected to weaken toward the end of the week, with rains possibly lingering near the Big Island…while a drying trend over the remainder of the chain is expected. Another low aloft is forecast to develop near the islands by weekend into early next week, which may lead to another episode of unsettled weather for the state.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Southerly kona winds will prevail across the coastal waters ahead of an approaching front. This front is forecast to reach Kauai late this afternoon, then gradually weaken to a trough while drifting slowly eastward during the rest of the week. Southerly winds are forecast to increase and may reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels at times across some of the waters around Maui County and the Big Island Wednesday through Thursday…to the east of this trough. The trough may linger over the state all the way through the weekend, with light northerly flow over the western waters and stronger south to southeast winds over the eastern waters.

A lingering moderate northwest swell will decline, with a new reinforcing moderate northwest swell arriving during the day, then peaking late tonight into Wednesday morning. Resulting surf is forecast to approach although remain just below advisory levels on north and west facing shores during the peak of this event. An extended period of below wintertime average northwest swell activity appears likely from the later part of this week through the weekend, with no surf approaching advisory levels during that time.

Happy Valentine’s Day!

World-wide Tropical Cyclone activity

Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba) and Tropical Cyclone 09P (Gita)…and a tropical disturbance near Darwin, Australia

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

>>> Caribbean Sea:

>>> Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Sanba)

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image