Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:

76 – 58  Lihue, Kauai
82 – 68  Honolulu, Oahu
80 – 66  Molokai
82 – 59  Kahului AP, Maui
82 – 69  Kailua Kona
80 – 60  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday evening:

0.51  Makaha Ridge, Kauai
0.11  Palehua, Oahu
 0.11  Molokai
0.06  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.04  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.12  Kapapala Ranch, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday evening:

22  Mana, Kauai
23  Wheeler AFB, Oahu
14  Molokai
18   Lanai
12   Kahoolawe
12  Maalaea Bay, Maui
18  Kaloko-Honokohau, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
High pressure west and northwest…low pressure north and northeast

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Higher level clouds northeast and south

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
First cold front dropping down into the state

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Showers locally along a cold front – Looping image

High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai, Oahu and Molokai, and north shore of Maui

High Surf Advisory…north shore of the Big Island

Small Craft Advisory…due to large northwest swell, most coasts and channels

~~~Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~


Broad Brush Overview: This active autumn weather pattern will continue into the new week, featuring a series of cold fronts, and potentially a Kona low developing east of the state late next week. A few showers along and ahead of this front will be possible through early Sunday. Drier and relatively cooler conditions will fill in across the state following the front Sunday through Monday. A stronger front will move southeastward down the island chain Tuesday and Wednesday, with another period of cool north winds arriving in its wake.

Details: The first cold front will reach Kauai and Oahu, then stall and dissipate over the central islands Sunday and Sunday night. Similar to the front earlier in the week, moisture will be limited and focused within a narrow band along and ahead of this boundary…as it moves down the island chain. A few showers will arrive out ahead of the front today, followed by a narrow line of showers moving over Kauai later this afternoon, Oahu through the evening hours, then to Maui County after midnight.

The best chance for showers Sunday will remain over Maui County and the Big Island, where the front is forecast to stall and dissipate. A drier and cooler airmass will follow Sunday through Monday. Winds will shift to the north tonight, then to the east and weaken through the day Sunday. Monday, the low level flow will quickly veer to the south-southwest kona direction, and increase into the light to moderate range by the end of the day…as the next front approaches. 

Looking Further Ahead: This second and stronger cold front will reach Kauai late Monday night into Tuesday, then clearing the Big Island Wednesday through Wednesday night. A deeper source of moisture along and ahead of this boundary will mean better rainfall coverage across the state. Guidance suggests this boundary pushing east of the state with another shot of cool and dry air beginning Tuesday night.

Although forecast uncertainty begins to rise through the second half of the upcoming week, the GFS and ECMWF models both depict a kona low developing along this frontal boundary east of the state, in response to a cutoff low aloft which drifts westward and over the islands next weekend. The possibilities in the resultant weather conditions range between dry and wet…stay tuned while the models sort this out over the next 2-3 days.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the Hawaiian waters, as a weak ridge lingers across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. A brief period of increased north-northeast winds is expected soon after the front moves through, with winds possibly reaching SCA levels in some areas around Kauai and Oahu.

Gentle to moderate trades will return briefly across most areas Sunday into Sunday night as the front dissipates…with winds swinging around to south and southwest Monday into Tuesday…as the next front approaches. Winds in the wake of this second front will swing back to the north…and increase behind the front. These winds appear likely to reach SCA levels across many areas from Wednesday night or Thursday through the end of next week.

Seas will build rapidly tonight into Sunday morning, as the next north-northwest swell moves into the area. This swell will push seas into the high surf warning levels along north and west facing shores. Seas should subside again on Monday, then build rapidly once again late Tuesday into Wednesday as another even larger north-northwest swell arrives.

Another even larger north-northwest swell is forecast to arrive late Tuesday, peaking Tuesday night into Wednesday. This swell will very likely produce warning level surf on north and west facing shores.

 https://i.pinimg.com/564x/62/de/c5/62dec535a89bfeb8c7982012eb4c8b6d.jpg
Unusually large surf on the north and west shores



World-wide Tropical Cyclone activity

>>> Here’s the Saturday PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering Tropical Cyclone 04B in the Bay of Bengal


https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif


>>> Atlantic Ocean:

>>> Caribbean Sea:

>>> Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: 

Tropical Cyclone 04B is dissipating, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing – Final Warning


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Humans Would Be Cool with Finding Aliens – If extraterrestrial life is ever discovered, humanity would probably be pretty cool with it.

A new study, one of very few of its kind, finds that people typically respond quite positively to the notion of life on other planets. The study investigated the possibility of finding microbial extraterrestrials, not intelligent E.T.s, so people’s responses might be a little different if they were told an armada of aliens were headed toward Earth, cautioned study author Michael Varnum, a psychologist at Arizona State University. Nevertheless, he noted, large portions of people believe that intelligent aliens do exist and that they’ve visited Earth; so even a more dramatic announcement might not ruffle feathers.

“What this suggests is, there’s no reason to be afraid” of sharing news of astrobiology with the public. “We won’t collapse. We’re not going to have chaos in the streets.”

Are we alone?

How people would respond to finding they’re not alone in the universe is a perennial question, but one that has been the subject of far more speculation than study, Varnum said. He could find only one study that asked people how they thought they’d react to the announcement of extraterrestrial life, and it was a decade old.

Varnum wanted to tackle the question a bit more realistically. So he turned to the real-world news, analyzing articles dating back to 1967 that looked at discoveries that could potentially have hinted at alien life (including — full disclosure — articles in Space.com on a star with irregular brightness cycles that might have signaled extraterrestrial activity, but the irregular cycles more likely result from orbiting dust).

Most of the language in these pieces skewed positive, software analyses revealed, and writers tended to emphasize the potential rewards of discovery over potential risks. Armed with that knowledge, Varnum turned to real people. He first recruited 501 subjects on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk crowd-sourcing website, paying them a small fee to write responses to two questions. One was how they would feel if scientists announced the discovery of alien microbial life. The other was how they thought the public at large would respond to such an announcement.

“It’s really much more likely that we’re going to encounter strange germs rather than E.T.,” Varnum said. And no one has previously studied people’s attitudes toward the discovery of alien microbes.

In a second study, Varnum recruited Mechanical Turk participants again. This time, they read a real-life article about the possibility of alien microbes. In 1996, scientists announced that they’d found what might be fossilized microbes in a Martian meteorite, known as Allan Hills 84001. Today, the researchers behind that discovery still think they may have found telltale signs of ancient alien life, though people in the field as a whole are far from convinced. At any rate, contemporary news articles about the discovery were very positive, Varnum said. He lifted one from The New York Times, stripped it of information about the date, and presented it to 256 participants as a new article. As a control group, he asked 249 other participants to read a real article about the creation of synthetic life in the laboratory.

Earthlings love company

In both studies, people reacted to the idea of alien life with more positivity than negativity, Varnum found. They tended to focus on the rewards over the risks. Individuals in the first study felt they, personally, would respond to the announcement of microbial E.T.s with a little more positivity than the public at large, but they still thought humanity as a whole would be enthused.

In the case of the realistic announcement about Martian microbes, people still remained overwhelmingly positive. They were pretty gung-ho about synthetic life, too, Varnum said, but Mars life got people even more jazzed. That finding suggests the enthusiasm isn’t just about science or discovery or even just new life, he said, but specifically about alien life.

“I think there might be something sort of comforting about knowing that life wasn’t an accident that happened once here,” he said. “Maybe it makes us feel a little less fragile or a little less lonely in the expanse of space.”

A paper describing the findings is available as a preprint and is under review at a peer-reviewed journal. Varnum would like to replicate his findings in other countries to see if culture or other factors influence people’s attitudes toward aliens. He’d also like to study people’s responses to intelligent life, but it would be harder to fool participants into believing, even briefly, that humanity had made contact with an alien civilization.

“I’ve got to think the subject pool might think, ‘Why am I hearing about this in a psychology experiment?'” he said.

Reactions to the discovery of intelligent life-forms outside of planet Earth might be a bit more complex, Varnum said, but it’s hard to tell. Already, he noted, polls show that more than half of Americans, British and Germans believe extraterrestrial intelligence exists. Thirty percent believe that intelligent aliens have contacted Earth, but that the government has covered it up.

“That raises another question,” Varnum said. “If I did the kind of study where I did a real-worldish, fake announcement, maybe some good chunk of participants would go, ‘Well, I already knew.'”