Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

7366  Lihue, Kauai
80
69  Honolulu, Oahu
75 – 69  Molokai
7970  Kahului AP, Maui
83 71  Kailua Kona
78 – 61  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:

0.35  Kilohana, Kauai
0.04  Moanalua RG
0.10  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe

0.07  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.16  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday evening:

23  Lihue, Kauai
27  Kuaokala, Oahu
24  Molokai
25   Lanai
46   Kahoolawe
24  Maalaea Bay, Maui

32  PTA Keamuku, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
High pressure northwest, low pressure far north and closer to the east…with a cold front bringing chilly air in its wake

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
A mix of high and low level clouds

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Partly to mostly cloudy…high clouds to the east,  north and west

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Very few showers anywhere in the state
Looping image


High Surf Advisory
…west shores of Oahu, Molokai

High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai / north shores of Oahu, Molokai and Maui and the Big Island

Small Craft Advisory…all coastal and channel waters

Wind Advisory…Big Island summits / 30-50 mph with gusts to near 65 mph

~~~Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~


Broad Brush Overview:  Chilly, strong and gusty north-northeast winds, along with dry air has overspread the state, as a cold front continues to move away to the east. Dry and stable conditions are expected Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure builds over the area. Winds will quickly trend down and become light beginning Wednesday. Another couple of cold fronts will move through the islands on Friday and Saturday, resulting in a modest increase in showers. Dry and stable conditions will return by Sunday. Yet another cold front will approach the state early next week.

Details: The blustery north-northeast winds and very dry air will overspread the state in the wake of this first cold front in a series. Surface winds will reach the 25 to 30 mph range for exposed areas, with stronger 40-50 mph winds due to terrain accelerations that occur within the northerly flow. Dry and stable conditions are expected Wednesday through Thursday, as high pressure pushes over the area behind the cold front. Winds will rapidly drop off tonight, likely giving way to land and sea breeze conditions Wednesday into Friday. The dry air, however, will likely preclude any afternoon shower potential each day through this time. The weather should be nice Wednesday and Thursday, with just afternoon clouds around the mountains…and ample sunshine beaming down over the leeward beaches.

Looking Further Ahead: A weak cold front will drift southward across Kauai and Oahu Friday before dissipating, with a stronger cold front quickly following behind it Saturday. The fronts may bring an increase in clouds and showers going into the weekend. Guidance indicates the second front will usher in another shot of very dry air and gusty northerly flow following its passage Saturday and Saturday night. Winds are expected to rapidly drop off Sunday morning with another ridge filling in behind. Yet another front may approach the state from the north around Monday night or Tuesday of next week…which may turn out to be the wettest of the recent cold fronts.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Northeast winds will increase significantly in response to a cold front moving in from the northwest. Widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected to hold into mid-week, with gale force conditions likely for the Alenuihaha Channel, Maalaea Bay, and Maui leeward waters. This surge of widespread strong winds will be short-lived, with winds dropping below SCA levels Wednesday…through the end of the week.

A new northwest swell has arrived and will continue to build. Models continue to indicate surf rising through Wednesday as a large reinforcing north-northwest swell arrives. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect for the north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, as well as the north shore of Maui. The HSA will likely be upgraded for warning level surf as the reinforcing swell fills in tonight and Wednesday. This series of swells will slowly trend down through the end of the week. The forecast then calls for a very large north-northwest swell to start building Saturday.

Large surf associated with the aforementioned swells coinciding with strong northerly winds, peak monthly tides, and beach erosion from recent large surf events could translate to some overwash onto vulnerable roadways through Wednesday. The best chance for overwash will be centered around the pre-dawn high tide cycles Wednesday.

East facing shores will be exposed to a north-northeast swell that will bring advisory-level surf…then diminishing through the rest of the week.

Small swells will keep surf from going flat for the south facing shores this week.

https://i.pinimg.com/564x/4b/1d/9b/4b1d9b296217c7cad9ab5f359a37e341.jpg



World-wide Tropical Cyclone activity

>>> Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering retiring Tropical Cyclone 03B, with two tropical disturbances being referred to as Invest 93W…and Invest 95W


https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif


>>> Atlantic Ocean:

>>> Caribbean Sea:

>>> Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Eastern Pacific
:

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
:

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting: 
The Invention of a New Kind of Political Party in Sweden
– Michael Wernstedt lives in the future, in the center of Stockholm. It is a “co-living space,” a former hotel now inhabited by fifty people who share five kitchens and a variety of common spaces on four floors; each tenant also has a bedroom with a private bathroom. All of it is breathtakingly well-designed and meticulously clean. While Wernstedt and I talked, sitting on one of several giant gray couches in one of the common spaces, about a dozen people of different genders and skin colors (though all roughly in their mid-thirties) shared a casual meal in another. During a recent house meeting, Wernstedt told me, someone asked those present to recall the happiest time of their lives—and they all said that they were happiest right now. Wernstedt’s vision for the future of Sweden, and democratic politics in general, resembles this house: it is happy, healthy, sustainable, and co-created.

Last week, the co-living space hosted a press conference, during which Wernstedt and two co-organizers announced the formation of a new political party, the Initiative. Few people in Sweden have heard of the new party yet, though its older sister, Denmark’s the Alternative, has assembled an impressive constituency in just four years. To register as a party in Stockholm, the Initiative had to collect fifty physical, pen-and-ink signatures; it will take another fifteen hundred to get on the national ballot. The Initiative plans to meet the national threshold by August, the deadline for next September’s parliamentary election. Getting into parliament would require winning at least four per cent of the vote. There are about three dozen nationwide political parties in Sweden, but only eight are represented in parliament. The youngest party to break the four-per-cent barrier is the Sweden Democrats, an ultra-nationalist, anti-immigrant party that was founded in 1988 and has been seated in parliament since 2010.

Wernstedt interprets the rise of the Sweden Democrats, like the election of Donald Trump in the United States, as an opportunity of sorts: “This is scary, but it shows that people want something new. And we have to take responsibility for democracy.” Better yet, Wernstedt wants to reinvent politics. The Initiative’s most important innovation is launching a party without a program but with two lists. One is a list of six values that the Party espouses: courage, openness, compassion, optimism, co-creation, and actionability. The other is a list of three crises that the Party must address: the crisis of faith in democracy, the environmental crisis, and the crisis of mental health. Last year, according to Wernstedt, Swedes missed more workdays for being mentally unwell than they did for being physically unwell; the leading cause of death among people under thirty-five is suicide. Starting next week, the Initiative plans to begin holding workshops around Sweden to develop a political program to address the three crises in ways consistent with the six values.

Wernstedt, who is thirty-five, used to work as an international lawyer. Five or six years ago, he told me, he realized that he found his outwardly successful life deeply unsatisfying. He started casting about for a meaningful project. One happened to be handy: Wernstedt’s grandmother is Nina Lagergren, the half-sister of Raoul Wallenberg, the Swedish diplomat who saved tens of thousands of Jews in Nazi-occupied Budapest before vanishing into the Soviet Gulag. Lagergren had spent several decades working to find out what happened to Wallenberg and to publicize his plight. When Wernstedt was having his crisis of purpose, Lagergren had recently founded the Raoul Wallenberg Academy, a human-rights and leadership school for teen-agers. Wernstedt took over the enterprise and, in just four years, he said, expanded it from fifty to ten thousand students. Then he traveled the world with his partner, Lemarc Thomas, looking for new ways to apply himself. When the couple suggested organizing for L.G.B.T. rights in Kenya, local activists told them to stand down. But when they made it to Thomas’s home island of St. Helena they volunteered their services for a referendum on same-sex marriage; when that failed, they filed a test case, which is currently pending before the island’s Supreme Court. Then they returned to Sweden, and Wernstedt decided to start a political party.

Philosophical inspiration for the project came from the work of Emil Ejner Friis and Daniel Görtz, who together created Hanzi Freinacht, an imaginary “philosopher, historian, and sociologist” who lives in seclusion in the Swiss Alps. Freinacht blogs at metamoderna.org, where he puts forward ideas of a society based on the principles of metamodernism, a school of thought that purports to succeed postmodernism. Metamodernism combines the hope of modernism with the critique of postmodernism. It is both questioning and visionary, and it believes in the future. Most important, Freinacht writes, a metamodern politics moves beyond liberal ideas toward shared responsibility for maximizing the happiness and health of everyone in the world. Welfare, in metamodern politics, must not merely guarantee material well-being and physical health but also “a listening society, where every person is seen and heard.”

A political party born of this philosophy cannot claim to tell people what’s good for them. It is a vessel for their needs and desires; otherwise it must be, as Freinacht puts it, “a party about nothing.” Wernstedt and about forty allies began the Initiative expecting only to design a new way of creating a party. They quickly discovered, though, that there is nothing more difficult than collectively devising a process for collective decision-making. They scrapped the blank slate in favor of a few basic starting points: a party leader (Wernstedt), a governing board of seven, and the lists of values and crises.

Everything else about the Initiative is expected to emerge from the workshops. The Danish Alternative has followed the same process, eventually involving about a thousand people in a series of twenty-five-person workshops led by about seventy party facilitators. Facilitators are to the Alternative what field organizers and political consultants are to conventional political parties: everything. Few observers in Denmark took the Alternative seriously when it launched, in 2013, but just two years later the new party was seated in parliament; this year, it turned in a respectable performance in local elections.

The facilitated-workshop process does not end with the drafting of a party platform: the process is ongoing, and it is very much the point of the Initiative’s existence. Wernstedt hopes that the process might inspire or engage other parties, eventually transforming the very perception of how democracy works. In his vision, Swedish politicians will then stop “talking about whether we need to lower taxes by one per cent or increase taxes by one per cent,” he said, and start talking instead about a future in which only about half the population has a job but everyone receives an income, in which technological advances and behavioral adjustments have transformed consumption and revolutionized education, and in which politics is continuously co-created.

For now, this vision of the future may be confined to the fanciful corners of the Internet and the too-beautiful co-living space in Stockholm. Then again, the Sweden Democrats, much like other far-right European parties, seemed marginal, even laughable, just a few years ago, and now they are polling third among Swedish parties. Established, conventional political parties seem utterly incapable of addressing the gaps in well-being that the far right is so rapidly filling. If an effective response to a party like the Sweden Democrats is possible, it will come from those who dare to think differently—and even strangely—about politics, the future, and the future of politics.