Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

82 – 65  Lihue, Kauai
83 – 71  Honolulu, Oahu
79 – 69  Molokai
82 – 68  Kahului AP, Maui
81 – 76  Kailua Kona
84 – 73  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:

0.02  Kilohana, Kauai
0.04  Kawailoa, Oahu
 0.86  Molokai
0.43  Lanai
 0.24  Kahoolawe
1.07  Ulupalakua, Maui
1.13  Kahua Ranch, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday evening:

10  Port Allen, Kauai
18  Kuaokala, Oahu
18  Molokai
25  Lanai
32  Kahoolawe
24  Maalaea Bay, Maui
10  PTA Keamuku, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
The next cold front is now well northwest

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
A weakening cold front remains near the Big Island

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Heavy clouds Big Island…lower clouds elsewhere

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally…especially near the Big Island
Looping image


High Surf Advisory…west shore of Oahu

Small Craft Advisory…hazardous boating conditions are expected across most waters due to a large north-northwest swell, and strengthening north winds

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: The recent cold front will shift east of the islands tonight. Deep moisture associated with the front will linger over or near the Big Island Thursday, keeping shower chances highest over the eastern end of the state. Cooler and drier conditions with north winds will prevail across Kauai and Oahu through the rest of the work week, and will slowly push over Maui County…in the wake of the front. Lighter winds, more humid weather, and increasing shower chances may affect the island chain this weekend into early next week.

Details: The latest forecast shows the front near the Big Island shifting slowly eastward, as the upper level trough currently just west of the state, shifts eastward. At the same time, the weak low due south of the Big Island will lift steadily northward, with the low merging with the weak front or frontal remnants just east of the Big Island through Thursday night. Light to moderate northerly winds are expected across the smaller islands through the period, while light southerlies over the Big Island shift around to the north tonight…as the front moves east of the island chain.

Scattered showers will continue to stream northward across the Big Island. Some heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible…although the threat for flash flooding is diminishing. The deeper moisture will shift east of the Big Island tonight through Thursday night, leading to a decrease in shower coverage over Maui County and the Big Island. Kauai and Oahu will drier weather, as a drier northerly flow should keep showers light and confined to mainly the north facing slopes.

Looking Further Ahead:  Meanwhile, the latest model output suggests that a lingering trough of low pressure and associated deep moisture east of the Big Island, will begin to shift westward and back across the island chain over the weekend into early next week. This in turn would suggest that shower coverage will be increasing from east to west across the state…during the weekend into early next week. Additionally, we should see an increase in humidity and volcanic haze (vog), as winds once again shift around to the southeast and south…with the next cold front approaching from the northwest.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: A cold front near the Big Island will be moving slowly east through tonight. It will end up being east of the Big Island Thursday. The front is then expected to stall and weaken to a trough over the eastern offshore waters during the second half of the week.

A large north-northwest swell, generated by a strong low pressure system north of Kauai a couple of days ago, is spreading across the island waters today. This swell is larger than expected, prompting a high surf warning for the north and west facing shores of a few islands, and a high surf advisory for the west facing shores of Oahu. Therefore, expect elevated, dangerous surf today for our north and west facing shores.

The large swell has also resulted in a small craft advisory (SCA) for most of the marine zones. The SCA is good through 6am Thursday, with the likelihood of an extension, as the next large northwest swell begins impacting the north and west facing shores of most islands Thursday night. This swell generated by former Typhoon Lan in the far northwest Pacific several days ago, will bring another round of warning level surf to the north and west facing shores of most islands. This swell should peak Friday. A smaller moderate size northwest swell is expected to arrive Tuesday of next week.

The east facing shores will get some wrap from the large northwest swells. Otherwise, surf will be small during this period due to the light trades.

The south facing shores will be getting some small pulses mainly from the southeast through Friday…trending smaller thereafter.

 

 https://kids.nationalgeographic.com/content/dam/kids/photos/States/A-I/hawaii-beach.adapt.945.1.png
Unsettled weather over the Big island…drier conditions with northerly breezes elsewhere


World-wide Tropical Cyclone activity

>>> Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering Tropical Storm 27W (Saola) in the northwest Pacific Ocean

>>> Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering a possible tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea


https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif


>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 27W (Saola) remains active, here’s a graphical track map…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Rising Sea Levels Creating First Native American Climate Refugees – Rising sea levels and human activities are fast creating a “worst case scenario” for Native Americans of the Mississippi Delta who stand to lose not just their homes, but their irreplaceable heritage, to climate change.

“This took a long time to evolve,” said Shirell Parfait-Dardar, Chief of the Grand Caillou/Dulac Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Indians in Dulac, Louisiana. Canal construction, oil and gas extraction from the Gulf Coast, climate change and the routing of the Mississippi River and its land-building floods away from other delta areas have made the loss of land inevitable. “It’s gotten so bad there is no way to repair it.”

The landscape has gradually become more of a waterscape, resembling a “laced doily” of land when seen from the air. Sea-level rise and subsidence of the Mississippi Delta are causing large swaths of land to turn to marsh, then open water, leaving narrow strands of land barely above the muddy waters.

“It can be a bit deceiving. It’s absolutely beautiful here,” said Parfait-Dardar of what people see from the roads. “You can still see some trees in spots. But I’m on a sliver of land. Everything has changed.”

The story of what this and other bands of Mississippi River Delta Native Americans are experiencing will be presented on Monday at the meeting of the Geological Society of America in Seattle, Washington. Presenting for Parfait-Dardar will be Williams College geoscientist Rónadh Cox, whose students have benefited from visiting Dulac and learning the plight of the Grand Caillou/Dulac Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Indians from Parfait-Dardar.

Tribal members live 17 miles from the coast, but despite this the community has been losing land at an average of 1% per year between 1974 and 1990, according to previous research. A more recent analysis shows that subsidence rates in the Dulac area average one-half inch per year—among the highest in southern Louisiana.

Fields and woodlands in which Parfait-Dardar and tribal members wandered as children now have to be crossed by boat. In Dulac, areas that never flooded from the sea now do so regularly. It no longer takes a storm to flood the area: A strong south wind coinciding with a high spring tide is all that’s needed.

“Younger people, they get out. They have to survive,” she said. But that survival comes at a high cost. “We’re losing our culture and our people. You don’t just lose your home, you lose who you are.”

Even ancestors are not spared. Coffins frequently come loose during floods and float away. Some are not recovered.

To mitigate the effects of flooding, many homes have been elevated 13 feet with stilts. There’s even one that’s 19 feet high, Parfait-Dardar said. But this poses yet another problem: Many of the people living in these elevated houses are Elders. Navigating stairs and being cut off from services is not safe for them. Many others, however, cannot afford to elevate their houses. A lot of properties have been abandoned due to repeated flooding, said Parfait-Dardar.

Relocating is not an easy option, since ties to traditional ways of life are strong and hard to leave behind and relocation require financial resources that are beyond the reach of many tribal members.

The Grand Caillou/Dulac Band is not the only Native American group being threatened. Others include the Grand Bayou Atakapa tribe, whose homes are accessible only by boat. Another is the nearby Isle de Jean Charles band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw who are currently undergoing federal resettlement, making them the first American “climate refugees.”