Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

83 – 73  Lihue, Kauai
84
73  Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 69  Molokai
9269  Kahului AP, Mauirecord high temperature Monday was 93
87 – 76  Kailua Kona
88 – 69  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Monday evening:

3.12  Moloaa Dairy, Kauai
1.26  Makaha Stream, Oahu
0.05  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe

0.00  Maui
0.46  Glenwood, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Monday evening:

36  Lihue, Kauai
46  Kuaokala, Oahu
25  Molokai
20  Lanai
12  Kahoolawe
30  Kula 1, Maui
25  Hilo AP, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
A vigorous cold front will move into the state

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms offshore south…dynamic cold front north

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Increasing clouds and showers…localized thunderstorms

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Locally heavy rain in the vicinity of Oahu (yellow, orange and red is heavy)
  Looping image


Flash Flood Watch
…Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island through Tuesday afternoon

High Wind Warning…Big Island summits this evening through Tuesday afternoon / 40-60+ mph

High Surf Advisory…north shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Maui

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels / mostly windward

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Thunderstorms and locally heavy showers, associated with a strong cold front and upper trough, could lead to flash flooding…especially from Oahu to the Big Island through Tuesday. This cold front will reach Kauai tonight, then continue down the island chain and shift east of the Big Island Wednesday night into Thursday. Cooler and drier air with breezy northerly winds will follow the front through the second half of the week.

Details: Precipitation will steadily increase, as deep tropical moisture pools northward ahead of the cold front and upper trough. Current radar imagery shows heavy showers developing and expanding in coverage along a pre-frontal cloud band near Oahu. This band will shift eastward across the eastern half of the state tonight through Tuesday…as the front moves down the island chain.

Impacts associated with this inclement weather event will include: the potential for flash flooding, strong thunderstorms or even an isolated severe cell, gusty downslope winds over the windward sides of both Oahu and Kauai, and the potential for a wintry mix of weather, and gusty southwest kona winds over the Big Island summits tonight into Tuesday.

Looking Further Ahead: Drier and cooler air from the north-northeast will fill in across the islands through the second half of the week…as the band of deep tropical moisture associated with the front exits to the east of the Big Island. Winds are forecast to weaken once again over the upcoming weekend as another…although weaker cold front approaches the state about a week from today.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Winds will be out of the south and southwest today, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front is expected to reach the Kauai waters by this evening, and then continue down the island chain, reaching the Big Island waters Tuesday. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the front.

In the wake of the front, locally strong northerly winds are expected, although should become light to moderate northerlies by Wednesday…persisting through the rest of the week.

The current northwest swell is peaking along north facing shores, just below advisory levels, and is expected to decline today. A larger northwest swell on Tuesday and Wednesday will likely produce surf well above the advisory threshold for north and west facing shores. An even larger northwest swell is forecast to arrive Friday, which could produce warning level surf along north and west facing shores.

A low east of New Zealand generated a swell which will produce surf near the advisory level along south facing shores today.

 https://i.pinimg.com/564x/17/0a/0a/170a0acfb29d5a22b23602ff5162cb32.jpg
Inclement weather conditions on tap


World-wide Tropical Cyclone activity

>>> Here’s the Monday PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering Tropical Storm 27W in the northwest Pacific Ocean

>>> Here’s the Monday PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering a possible tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea


https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif


>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 27W remains active, here’s a graphical track map…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting:
Rising Sea Levels Creating First Native American Climate Refugees
Rising sea levels and human activities are fast creating a “worst case scenario” for Native Americans of the Mississippi Delta who stand to lose not just their homes, but their irreplaceable heritage, to climate change.

“This took a long time to evolve,” said Shirell Parfait-Dardar, Chief of the Grand Caillou/Dulac Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Indians in Dulac, Louisiana. Canal construction, oil and gas extraction from the Gulf Coast, climate change and the routing of the Mississippi River and its land-building floods away from other delta areas have made the loss of land inevitable. “It’s gotten so bad there is no way to repair it.”

The landscape has gradually become more of a waterscape, resembling a “laced doily” of land when seen from the air. Sea-level rise and subsidence of the Mississippi Delta are causing large swaths of land to turn to marsh, then open water, leaving narrow strands of land barely above the muddy waters.

“It can be a bit deceiving. It’s absolutely beautiful here,” said Parfait-Dardar of what people see from the roads. “You can still see some trees in spots. But I’m on a sliver of land. Everything has changed.”

The story of what this and other bands of Mississippi River Delta Native Americans are experiencing will be presented on Monday at the meeting of the Geological Society of America in Seattle, Washington. Presenting for Parfait-Dardar will be Williams College geoscientist Rónadh Cox, whose students have benefited from visiting Dulac and learning the plight of the Grand Caillou/Dulac Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Indians from Parfait-Dardar.

Tribal members live 17 miles from the coast, but despite this the community has been losing land at an average of 1% per year between 1974 and 1990, according to previous research. A more recent analysis shows that subsidence rates in the Dulac area average one-half inch per year—among the highest in southern Louisiana.

Fields and woodlands in which Parfait-Dardar and tribal members wandered as children now have to be crossed by boat. In Dulac, areas that never flooded from the sea now do so regularly. It no longer takes a storm to flood the area: A strong south wind coinciding with a high spring tide is all that’s needed.

“Younger people, they get out. They have to survive,” she said. But that survival comes at a high cost. “We’re losing our culture and our people. You don’t just lose your home, you lose who you are.”

Even ancestors are not spared. Coffins frequently come loose during floods and float away. Some are not recovered.

To mitigate the effects of flooding, many homes have been elevated 13 feet with stilts. There’s even one that’s 19 feet high, Parfait-Dardar said. But this poses yet another problem: Many of the people living in these elevated houses are Elders. Navigating stairs and being cut off from services is not safe for them. Many others, however, cannot afford to elevate their houses. A lot of properties have been abandoned due to repeated flooding, said Parfait-Dardar.

Relocating is not an easy option, since ties to traditional ways of life are strong and hard to leave behind and relocation require financial resources that are beyond the reach of many tribal members.

The Grand Caillou/Dulac Band is not the only Native American group being threatened. Others include the Grand Bayou Atakapa tribe, whose homes are accessible only by boat. Another is the nearby Isle de Jean Charles band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw who are currently undergoing federal resettlement, making them the first American “climate refugees.”