Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

88 – 73  Lihue, Kauai
75  Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 72  Molokai
9371  Kahului AP, MauiThursday’s high temperature record was 96…set back in 1997
88 – 76  Kailua Kona
87 – 72  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

1.24  Kapahi, Kauai
1.10  Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
0.23  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.30  Kahoolawe

0.54  Kepuni, Maui
1.63  Kealakekua, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:

14  Mana, Kauai
20  Kalaeloa, Oahu
17  Molokai
07  Lanai

23  Kahoolawe
22  Maalaea Bay, Maui
22  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs
An early season cold front is near Kauai
Scattered thunderstorms…in the deeper tropics to our south
Clear to partly cloudy…some cloudy areas
Showers locally…some are locally heavy
Looping radar image

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~


Broad Brush Overview: A ridge of high pressure over the Kauai end of the state, will keep our light winds in place through Friday. Daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes, will bring clouds and spotty showers over the island interiors during the afternoon and evening hours. Volcanic haze (vog) will remain in place across Maui County into Friday as well. Trade winds will return more fully Saturday, strengthening during the weekend. This will bring a return of more typical trade wind weather, with off and on windward and mountain showers…as well as blow the vog away too.

Details: The early season cold front near Kauai will remain nearly stationar, then lift northwestward away from the islands Friday. As a result, we should see the light winds giving way to returning trades later Friday. Sea breezes will once again lead to convective shower development over the islands this afternoon, with these showers lingering into the evening hours locally. As the trades return Friday, we’ll transition to a more windward focused shower pattern…with a few stretching into the leeward areas on the smaller islands.

Looking ahead: High pressure will build to the north of the islands Friday night into the weekend, then shift eastward and strengthen northeast of the state early next week. This will bring a return of moderate to locally stronger trade winds Saturday through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, the Central Pacific remains quiet in terms of tropical storms, while the eastern Pacific has Tropical Depression 15E, Post-Tropical Cyclone Max, and Tropical Storm Norma. Looking at the latest models, I don’t see any of these tropical systems moving towards the Hawaiian Islands for the time being at least.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: A weakening cold front has stalled over the offshore waters north of the islands, and will start moving north later today. This will allow a surface ridge near Oahu to begin moving north later today as well. The light winds today will give way to weak trades Friday, which will gradually strengthen through the weekend. Trades may reach Small Craft Advisory limits over the typically windy waters around Maui County and waters south of the Big Island Saturday…continuing through the first half of next week.

The small to moderate north swell has peaked, and a slow decline should begin later today.

The swell from the Tasman Sea did not reached it full potential, and is quite small. A reinforcing small swell is forecast to arrive Friday. It will cause a rise to the surf along south and west facing shores through the weekend.

Small surf is expected along east facing shores as the wind remain light today. However, an increase will occur over the weekend, as the trade winds pick up. At the same time, the seas will become choppy and rough.

World-wide tropical cyclone activity

>>> Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering Tropical Storm Jose, Tropical Depression 14L…along with a tropical disturbance

>>> Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering Typhoon Talim and Typhoon 21W (Doksuri)…and Tropical Depression 15E, Tropical Storm Norma and Post-Tropical Cyclone Max in the eastern Pacific

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 12L (Jose) is active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Depression 14L is active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system while it moves westward to west- northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of this remnant low, with the looping version

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Depression 15E remains active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Post-Tropical Cyclone 16E (Max) is dissipating, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite imageLast Advisory

Tropical Storm 17E (Norma) remains active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 20W (Talim) is active, here’s a JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Typhoon 21W (Doksuri) is dissipating here’s a JTWC graphical track map, here’s a satellite image of this system – Final Warning

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Climate change challenges the survival of fish across the world
– Climate change will force many amphibians, mammals and birds to move to cooler areas outside their normal ranges, provided they can find space and a clear trajectory among our urban developments and growing cities.

But what are the chances for fish to survive as climate change continues to warm waters around the world?

University of Washington researchers are tackling this question in the first analysis of how vulnerable the world’s freshwater and marine fishes are to climate change. Their paper, appearing online Sept. 11 in Nature Climate Change, used physiological data to predict how nearly 3,000 fish species living in oceans and rivers will respond to warming water temperatures in different regions.

“Climate change is happening. We need tools to try to identify areas that are going to be the most at risk and try to develop plans to conserve these areas,” said lead author Lise Comte, a postdoctoral researcher in the UW’s School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. “It’s important to look at the organisms themselves as we cannot just assume they will all be equally sensitive to these changes.”

The researchers compiled data from lab experiments involving nearly 500 fish species, conducted over the past 80 years by researchers around the world. These standardized experiments measure the highest temperatures fish are able to tolerate before they die. This analysis is the first time these disparate data from lab experiments have been combined and translated to predict how fish will respond in the wild.

The researchers found that overall, sensitivity to temperature changes varied greatly between ocean-dwelling and freshwater fish. In general, marine fish in the tropics and freshwater fish in higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were the most at risk when water temperatures warmed, the analysis showed.

“Nowhere on Earth are fish spared from having to cope with climate change,” said senior author Julian Olden, a UW professor of aquatic and fishery sciences. “Fish have unique challenges – they either have to make rapid movements to track their temperature requirements, or they will be forced to adapt quickly.”

Using years of data — and relying on the fact that many fish species are taxonomically related and tend to share the same thermal limits — the researchers were able to predict the breaking-point temperature for close to 3,000 species. Regional patterns then emerged when those data were paired with climate-model data predicting temperature increases under climate change.

For example, fish in the tropical oceans are already living in water that is approaching the upper range of their tolerance. They might not have much wiggle room when temperatures increase slightly. By contrast, in freshwater streams in the far north, fish are accustomed to cooler water temperatures but have much less tolerance for warming waters. Since the effects of climate change are acutely felt in high latitudes, this doesn’t bode well for fish in those streams that have a small window for survivable temperatures.

Fish will either migrate, adapt or die off as temperatures continue to warm, the researchers explained. Given past evolutionary rates of critical thermal limits, it’s unlikely that fish will be able to keep up with the rate at which temperatures are increasing, Olden said. The ability to move, then, is imperative for fish that live in the most critical areas identified in this analysis.

Currently, dams and other infrastructure may block fish from getting where they might need to be in the future; fish ladders and other means to allow fish to circumvent these barriers could be more readily used, although the effectiveness of these structures is highly variable. Additionally, actions to restore vegetation along the edges of streams and lakes can help shade and reduce water temperature for the benefit of fish.

“Fishes across the world face mounting challenges associated with climate change,” Olden said. “Looking forward, continued efforts to support conservation strategies that allow species to respond to these rapid changes are needed.”