Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:
88 – 73 Lihue, Kauai
86 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 72 Molokai
93 – 71 Kahului AP, Maui – Thursday’s high temperature record was 96…set back in 1997
88 – 76 Kailua Kona
87 – 72 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:
1.24 Kapahi, Kauai
1.10 Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
0.23 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.30 Kahoolawe
0.54 Kepuni, Maui
1.63 Kealakekua, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:
14 Mana, Kauai
20 Kalaeloa, Oahu
17 Molokai
07 Lanai
23 Kahoolawe
22 Maalaea Bay, Maui
22 South Point, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
An early season cold front is near Kauai
Scattered thunderstorms…in the deeper tropics to our south
Clear to partly cloudy…some cloudy areas
Showers locally…some are locally heavy
Looping radar image
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Broad Brush Overview: A ridge of high pressure over the Kauai end of the state, will keep our light winds in place through Friday. Daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes, will bring clouds and spotty showers over the island interiors during the afternoon and evening hours. Volcanic haze (vog) will remain in place across Maui County into Friday as well. Trade winds will return more fully Saturday, strengthening during the weekend. This will bring a return of more typical trade wind weather, with off and on windward and mountain showers…as well as blow the vog away too.
Details: The early season cold front near Kauai will remain nearly stationar, then lift northwestward away from the islands Friday. As a result, we should see the light winds giving way to returning trades later Friday. Sea breezes will once again lead to convective shower development over the islands this afternoon, with these showers lingering into the evening hours locally. As the trades return Friday, we’ll transition to a more windward focused shower pattern…with a few stretching into the leeward areas on the smaller islands.
Looking ahead: High pressure will build to the north of the islands Friday night into the weekend, then shift eastward and strengthen northeast of the state early next week. This will bring a return of moderate to locally stronger trade winds Saturday through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, the Central Pacific remains quiet in terms of tropical storms, while the eastern Pacific has Tropical Depression 15E, Post-Tropical Cyclone Max, and Tropical Storm Norma. Looking at the latest models, I don’t see any of these tropical systems moving towards the Hawaiian Islands for the time being at least.
Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map
Marine environment details: A weakening cold front has stalled over the offshore waters north of the islands, and will start moving north later today. This will allow a surface ridge near Oahu to begin moving north later today as well. The light winds today will give way to weak trades Friday, which will gradually strengthen through the weekend. Trades may reach Small Craft Advisory limits over the typically windy waters around Maui County and waters south of the Big Island Saturday…continuing through the first half of next week.
The small to moderate north swell has peaked, and a slow decline should begin later today.
The swell from the Tasman Sea did not reached it full potential, and is quite small. A reinforcing small swell is forecast to arrive Friday. It will cause a rise to the surf along south and west facing shores through the weekend.
Small surf is expected along east facing shores as the wind remain light today. However, an increase will occur over the weekend, as the trade winds pick up. At the same time, the seas will become choppy and rough.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity
>>> Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering Tropical Storm Jose, Tropical Depression 14L…along with a tropical disturbance
>>> Here’s the latest PDC Weather Wall Presentation, covering Typhoon Talim and Typhoon 21W (Doksuri)…and Tropical Depression 15E, Tropical Storm Norma and Post-Tropical Cyclone Max in the eastern Pacific
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Storm 12L (Jose) is active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Tropical Depression 14L is active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
1.) A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system while it moves westward to west- northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of this remnant low, with the looping version
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression 15E remains active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Post-Tropical Cyclone 16E (Max) is dissipating, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image – Last Advisory
Tropical Storm 17E (Norma) remains active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:
Typhoon 20W (Talim) is active, here’s a JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Typhoon 21W (Doksuri) is dissipating here’s a JTWC graphical track map, here’s a satellite image of this system – Final Warning
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Climate change challenges the survival of fish across the world – Climate change will force many amphibians, mammals and birds to move to cooler areas outside their normal ranges, provided they can find space and a clear trajectory among our urban developments and growing cities.
But what are the chances for fish to survive as climate change continues to warm waters around the world?
University of Washington researchers are tackling this question in the first analysis of how vulnerable the world’s freshwater and marine fishes are to climate change. Their paper, appearing online Sept. 11 in Nature Climate Change, used physiological data to predict how nearly 3,000 fish species living in oceans and rivers will respond to warming water temperatures in different regions.
“Climate change is happening. We need tools to try to identify areas that are going to be the most at risk and try to develop plans to conserve these areas,” said lead author Lise Comte, a postdoctoral researcher in the UW’s School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. “It’s important to look at the organisms themselves as we cannot just assume they will all be equally sensitive to these changes.”
The researchers compiled data from lab experiments involving nearly 500 fish species, conducted over the past 80 years by researchers around the world. These standardized experiments measure the highest temperatures fish are able to tolerate before they die. This analysis is the first time these disparate data from lab experiments have been combined and translated to predict how fish will respond in the wild.
The researchers found that overall, sensitivity to temperature changes varied greatly between ocean-dwelling and freshwater fish. In general, marine fish in the tropics and freshwater fish in higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were the most at risk when water temperatures warmed, the analysis showed.
“Nowhere on Earth are fish spared from having to cope with climate change,” said senior author Julian Olden, a UW professor of aquatic and fishery sciences. “Fish have unique challenges – they either have to make rapid movements to track their temperature requirements, or they will be forced to adapt quickly.”
Using years of data — and relying on the fact that many fish species are taxonomically related and tend to share the same thermal limits — the researchers were able to predict the breaking-point temperature for close to 3,000 species. Regional patterns then emerged when those data were paired with climate-model data predicting temperature increases under climate change.
For example, fish in the tropical oceans are already living in water that is approaching the upper range of their tolerance. They might not have much wiggle room when temperatures increase slightly. By contrast, in freshwater streams in the far north, fish are accustomed to cooler water temperatures but have much less tolerance for warming waters. Since the effects of climate change are acutely felt in high latitudes, this doesn’t bode well for fish in those streams that have a small window for survivable temperatures.
Fish will either migrate, adapt or die off as temperatures continue to warm, the researchers explained. Given past evolutionary rates of critical thermal limits, it’s unlikely that fish will be able to keep up with the rate at which temperatures are increasing, Olden said. The ability to move, then, is imperative for fish that live in the most critical areas identified in this analysis.
Currently, dams and other infrastructure may block fish from getting where they might need to be in the future; fish ladders and other means to allow fish to circumvent these barriers could be more readily used, although the effectiveness of these structures is highly variable. Additionally, actions to restore vegetation along the edges of streams and lakes can help shade and reduce water temperature for the benefit of fish.
“Fishes across the world face mounting challenges associated with climate change,” Olden said. “Looking forward, continued efforts to support conservation strategies that allow species to respond to these rapid changes are needed.”
Jeff Says:
Hi Glenn, in 1821 there was a cat 3 hurricane that hit NY it would have caused a trillion dollars worth of damage if that hit today. In 1935 the Keys got hit with the strongest hurricane with 210mph winds. The record for major hurricanes to hit the USA is 23hrs, happened in 1933 with 2 of them hitting. My question is if input of CO2 is causing more intense hurricanes then why is Hurricane Jose barely hanging on and was over very warm water. It does not seem logical that CO2 is a culprit. Also it had been 12 years since a major hurricane had made landfall in the USA. Regards, Jeff
~~~ Hi Jeff, thanks for pointing out prior hurricanes from the distant past.
I don’t think that C02 is the only culprit here, although it certainly is playing its part.
These major hurricanes are sure having their way with the Caribbean and the United States this year.
Lets hope that the rest of this years hurricane season cools off, and that these hurricanes stay over the open ocean…rather than coming ashore!
Aloha, Glenn
Woody Says:
Really impressed that these scientists came to the conclusion that the fish will move, adapt or die..I’d have never figured out with my layman’s background..also,’Tropical Tidbits”(East pac.)(the path of computer models linked to)are down…maybe chk it…Let’s hope that these systems stay East and south,be nice to have a “barren”rather than”bumber”year for the Spinmasters..Da Bess to you,mom&you too Linda…hope you are healing well..Aloha Nui
~~~ Hi Woody, good to hear from you, glad you enjoyed today’s interesting article.
I just fixed the links to the computer model output for the storms in the eastern Pacific…thanks for letting me know.
I appreciate you taking the time send your comment…thanks!
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Aloha, Glenn
Kathy Blackman Says:
Hi Glenn,
Is it a likely possibility that hurricane seasons will get extended now that we are in an era of a “New Normal” and monster storm events aren’t playing by the usual rules? What are your thoughts please.
~~~ Hi Kathy, that’s an interesting idea, I don’t honestly know…although I think you might be on to something!
Aloha, Glenn
kevin Says:
Hi Glenn! Im visiting Maui late next week through the end of the month. I have been checking in with your site (as I usually do before visiting the islands) and I am a little concerned with the approaching weather from the north east. Do you anticipate much rain and overcast on the leeward side in the upcoming weeks? Thanks for all the insight and info on your page!
~~~ Hi Kevin, the weather over the next couple of weeks is beyond my scope, although I don’t see anything too concerning at the moment.
You can use these forecast pages to keep an eye on what’s coming up…in terms of weather:
http://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/maui.php?zone=HIZ021
http://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/maui.php?zone=HIZ018
Best wishes, and have a great vacation!
Aloha, Glenn