Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

86 – 79  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 73  Molokai
89 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 77  Kailua Kona
84 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

0.46  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.24  Wheeler AF, Oahu
 0.10  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.46  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.82  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:

25  Port Allen, Kauai
35  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27  Molokai
31  Lanai
38  Kahoolawe
32  Maalaea Bay, Maui
39  PTA Keamuku, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Pacific Storm Track remains far north of Hawaii


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms well offshore in many directions

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif
Low clouds arriving on the trade winds…high cloud streaks from the southwest


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…Kaiwi Channel, and windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: A moderately strong, near 1029 millibar high pressure system directly north of the state, will keep the trade winds blowing across the island chain through the remainder of the work week. The trades will then become lighter over the weekend into early next week…as the ridge of high pressure north of the state weakens. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas as usual, with a few showers being carried into the leeward sides locally. An increase in trade wind showers and muggy conditions are possible early next week, as tropical moisture lifts northward into the area from the southeast.

Looking further ahead: High pressure north of the islands will weaken, as a cold front passes by well to the north of the state. This will weaken the trades into the light to locally moderate range Sunday through early next week. Models show deeper tropical moisture trying to lift northward into the area Sunday through next Tuesday, could bring an increase in showers…especially over and around Maui and the Big Island. In addition to this increase in showers, muggy conditions will likely return then as well. The trades will pick up after this surge of tropical moisture moves past by the middle of next week. There are no threatening tropical cyclones expected through the next week.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: High pressure passing north of the state has led to a strengthening of the trade winds, with small craft advisory conditions active over many coasts and channels….including the leeward waters around Maui County and Oahu. Winds will start to decrease Friday, with a more widespread softening of the trades through early next week…as the high pressure ridge shifts southward toward the state.

These gusty trade winds will generate choppy surf along east facing shores. In addition, small swells from the East Pacific may be around today. South facing shores may see a small rise this weekend as portions of a Tasman swell reach the islands.

 https://i.pinimg.com/564x/67/65/7e/67657e3ed7ceb9456a56893aba9b9dd7.jpg
Typical trade wind weather pattern holding firm



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif


>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: 

Hurricane 09L (Harvey) remains active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) A trough of low pressure extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico over central Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although strong upper-level winds could limit tropical cyclone formation, some subtropical development is possible over the weekend or early next week while the system moves northeastward over the western Atlantic before it merges with a front. Regardless of development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of southern and central Florida during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Storm 16W (Pakhar) remains active, here’s a JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Climate change is luring Kodiak bears away from their iconic salmon streams – Kodiak brown bears are abandoning salmon–their iconic prey–due to climate change, according to a new study.

The bears are more interested in chowing down on early-arriving red elderberries. The likely result of this “prey switch,” the researchers conclude, is a disrupted ecosystem on Alaska’s Kodiak Island. The research was conducted by biologists at Oregon State University, University of Montana’s Flathead Lake Biological Station, and Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge.

The findings were published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The bears–the largest in the world–typically gorge on sockeye salmon in the summer. But in 2014, researchers were surprised to see streams in the Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge full of salmon–with no bears in sight. The scene repeated itself the next year.

“Prior to that summer, we found streams that were littered with thousands of shredded salmon carcasses,” Will Deacy, a postdoctoral researcher in OSU’s College of Agricultural Sciences and lead author on the study. “In 2014 and again in ’15, we were stunned to find such a strikingly different scene. There were piles of rotting, intact carcasses that had died after spawning instead of being killed by bears.”

It turns out the bears were on the hillsides, feeding on abundant red elderberries, which typically ripen after salmon have finished spawning in streams. Wild fruit, chock full of carbohydrates, is typically an important part of a brown bear’s diet, especially when the spawning salmon are gone.

Until recently, the bears would eat fish for most of the summer and then move on to the berries, which typically ripen at the end of the salmon season and are available from late August into early September. Bears are generalists that consume dozens of different foods throughout the year, but sockeye salmon and red elderberries are key foods for them.

The researchers found that due to warm spring temperatures on Kodiak, the berries were developing fruit weeks earlier, at the same time as the peak of the salmon migration; 2014 was one of the warmest years on the island since record-keeping began 60 years ago. Although there will continue to be considerable variation in Kodiak’s climate, the warming trend is likely to continue.

The research team analyzed the bears’ scat to find direct evidence that the bears were consuming the berries and not the salmon.

“An earlier berry crop shut down one of the most iconic predator-prey scenes in nature,” said Jonny Armstrong, an ecologist at OSU and member of the research team. “As climate change reschedules ecosystems, species that were once separated in time are now getting a chance to interact—in this case the berries, bears and salmon. This is going to have large impacts that are hard to predict.”

For example, birds that depend on bears pulling salmon out of the stream, could be seriously affected, he said. Other far-reaching effects may include changes in bear demographics due to the change in their diet, evolving salmon populations and impacts on plant pollinators.

“It is a strange, indirect effect of climate change,” Deacy said. “These bears eat dozens of different foods throughout the year but now two of them are overlapping. This is causing a disruption in the food web that could have profound implications for the ecology of the island.”

The abundance of salmon and berries on Kodiak Island are why there are so many bears there, and why they are so large, said Jack Stanford, director emeritus at the University of Montana’s Flathead Lake Biological Station and one of the study’s co-authors.

“This overlap in their resources forces the bears to make a choice that could in the long run result in fewer bears and/or unexpected changes in ecosystem structure,” Stanford said.