Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

89 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 76  Molokai
88 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 75  Kailua Kona
84 – 70  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:

0.88  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.58  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
 0.38  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.02  Kahoolawe
0.86  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.92  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday evening:

28  Port Allen, Kauai
30  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
24  Molokai
31  Lanai
27  Kahoolawe
25  Maalaea Bay, Maui 
31  PTA Keamuku, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
High pressure north-northeast of the islands…low pressure south

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms far southwest, south and southeast

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif
Low clouds arriving from the east on the trades…cirrus from the west


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally…generally offshore and windward
Looping radar image



Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

Coastal Flooding Possible:

Coastal flooding associated with King tides will be a possibility the next couple of days. The greatest potential for coastal flooding impacts will be in the mid to late afternoon hours Friday into early next week.

Impacts of the King tides may include flooding of beaches that are normally dry, salt water inundation of typically vulnerable low-lying roads, docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure. The potential for coastal flooding will diminish early next week as the peak daily tides diminish.

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: A moderately strong, near 1030 millibar high pressure system far north-northeast of the islands, will maintain moderate trade winds over the islands…at least through the rest of the work week. Clouds and showers will favor the windward and mountain areas, carried our way on the summertime trade wind flow. The leeward side of the Big Island will see clouds and showers beginning during the afternoon hours, typically continuing into the evenings.

The high far north-northeast will drift further east and weaken slightly over the next few days, then remain nearly stationary over the weekend into early next week. A slow weakening trend will take place in the winds over the islands through the next few days…gradually easing into the low to moderate levels. Limited change in low level moisture levels are expected over the next few days, though model guidance indicates an increase of tropical moisture over the state this weekend into early next week.

Looking further ahead: An area of disturbed weather about 750 miles southeast of the Big Island continues to be monitored for potential development of a tropical depression. Although organization has not increased, there is a medium chance that a weak tropical cyclone will develop over the next several days.  Forecast models differ in their handling of the associated pressure and moisture fields, especially early next week. An increase in moisture riding in on the trades during the Sunday-Tuesday time frame is the general expectation, with trade winds potentially enhanced or weakened…depending on the evolution and track of the area of disturbed weather. The low aloft and its associated destabilizing cool pocket of mid-level air is expected to be closer to the islands at the same time, and there is a chance this combination leads to the development of heavy showers.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for locally strong trade winds across the typically windy waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. The SCA is currently in effect through Thursday afternoon. The latest forecast maintains SCA conditions in these same areas into the weekend.

A small south swell will maintain small surf along south facing shores through tonight. A small south-southeast swell is expected to fill in Thursday, peak Friday, and then gradually subside during the  weekend. Another small, reinforcing southwest swell is forecast to reach the islands this weekend.

Rough moderate surf will persist along east facing shores due to breezy trades in the vicinity of, and upstream of the islands. Surf may trend down along east facing shores this weekend…as the trades weaken slightly. Surf will likely remain below the High Surf Advisory criteria along all shorelines through early next week.

 https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/be/50/b3/be50b31585e6806d86a4b135d0241c0d.jpg
Another nice summer day



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif


>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Hurricane 08L (Gert) remains active, here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing

1.) Satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the system moves westward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

2.) Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles has also become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. Continued gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours..medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

3.)  A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) An area of low pressure is located about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system has a broad circulation, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression may form within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium…60 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located less than 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have become slightly better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear to remain conducive for additional development of this system during the next few days as it drifts toward the west-northwest. If the recent trend of improved organization persists, a tropical depression could form in this area later today or tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high…80 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 14W (Banyan) is dissipating, here’s a JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image –Final Warning

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Seafood for Thought —  Covering 70 percent of Earth’s surface, the world’s oceans are vast and deep. So vast, in fact, that nearly every coastal country has the potential to meet its own domestic seafood needs through aquaculture. In fact, each country could do so using a tiny fraction of its ocean territory.

So finds a study led by scientists from UC Santa Barbara and including researchers from the Nature Conservancy, UCLA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Their research, published today in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, demonstrates the oceans’ potential to support aquaculture. Also known as fish farming, the practice is the fastest-growing food sector, and it’s poised to address increasing issues of food insecurity around the globe.

“There is a lot of space that is suitable for aquaculture, and that is not what’s going to limit its development,” said lead author Rebecca Gentry, who recently completed her Ph.D. at UCSB’s Bren School of Environmental Science & Management. “It’s going to be other things such as governance and economics.”

According to the study, among the first global assessments of the potential for marine aquaculture, the world’s oceans are rife with aquaculture “hot spots” that provide enough space to produce 15 billion metric tons of finfish annually. That is more than 100 times the current global seafood consumption.

More realistically, the researchers note, if aquaculture were developed in only the most productive areas, the oceans could theoretically produce the same amount of seafood that the world’s wild-caught fisheries currently produce globally, but in less than 1 percent of the total ocean surface — a combined area the size of Lake Michigan.

“There are only a couple of countries that are producing the vast majority of what’s being produced right now in the oceans,” Gentry said. “We show that aquaculture could actually be spread a lot more across the world, and every coastal country has this opportunity.”

The United States, for example, has enormous untapped potential and could produce enough farmed seafood to meet national demand using only 0.01 percent of its exclusive economic zone, Gentry noted. Given that the U.S. imports more than 90 percent of its seafood, aquaculture presents a powerful opportunity to increase domestic supply and reduce the nation’s seafood trade deficit, which now totals over $13 billion.

“Marine aquaculture provides a means and an opportunity to support both human livelihoods and economic growth, in addition to providing food security,” said co-author Ben Halpern, executive director of the UCSB-affiliated National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). “It’s not a question of if aquaculture will be part of future food production but, instead, where and when. Our results help guide that trajectory.”

To determine aquaculture’s global potential, the researchers identified areas where ocean conditions are suitable enough to support farms. They used synthesized data on oceanographic parameters like ocean depth and temperature and the biological needs of 180 species of finfish and bivalve mollusks, such as oysters and mussels.

The research team ruled out places that would come into conflict with other human uses, such as high shipping zones and marine protected areas, and excluded ocean depths that exceed 200 meters, following current industry practice to keep their assessment economically realistic. Their analysis did not consider all possible political or social constraints that may limit production.

“There’s so much area available that there’s a lot of flexibility to think about how to do this in the best way for conservation, economic development and other uses,” said Gentry.

Co-author Halley Froehlich noted that aquaculture could also help make up for the limitations of wild-caught fisheries. In the past two decades, the wild-caught industry has hit a production wall, stagnating at about 90 million metric tons, with little evidence that things will pick up.

“Aquaculture is expected to increase by 39 percent in the next decade,” said Froehlich, a postdoctoral researcher at NCEAS. “Not only is this growth rate fast, but the amount of biomass aquaculture produces has already surpassed wild seafood catches and beef production.”

Froehlich emphasized that it will be crucial for science, conservation, policy and industry to work together to proactively ensure fish farms are not just well placed but also well managed, such as balancing nutrient inputs and outputs to avoid pollution and monitoring for diseases. This study is a step in that collaborative direction.

“Like any food system, aquaculture can be done poorly; we’ve seen it,” she said, referring to the boom and bust of shrimp farming in the 1990s, a fallout of poor management. “This is really an opportunity to shape the future of food for the betterment of people and the environment.”