Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

88 – 78  Lihue, Kauai
– 78  Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 74  Molokai
87 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 76  Kailua Kona
81 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Friday evening:

0.33  Kilohana, Kauai
0.06  Moanalua, Oahu
0.34  Molokai
0.01  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe

2.20  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.74  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Friday evening:

25  Port Allen, Kauai
32  Kuaokala, Oahu
37  Molokai
38  Lanai

35  Kahoolawe
38  Maalaea Bay, Maui

43  PTA Keamuku, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs
Low pressure far north of the islands…thunderstorms well southeast through southwest
Higher clouds near Kauai…low clouds arriving on the trades from the east
Showers locally…mostly offshore and windward areas
Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory
…Kaiwi Channel, and windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~


Broad Brush Overview: The trades will strengthen…remaining locally stronger into the weekend. The trade winds will continue to carry clouds and some showers over windward areas. The upcountry sections of leeward Big Island will have a chance of showers each afternoon. There’s the chance of increasing windward showers early next week, as an upper trough of low pressure arrives.

Details: The latest model guidance depicts mostly dry and stable trade wind weather persisting over much of the area…through the weekend. However, clouds and showers that do show up will favor windward areas, leaving leeward areas mostly dry as usual. Windward shower coverage may periodically become enhanced as pockets of moisture within the trades move through.  

Looking further ahead: No significant changes are anticipated, as high pressure will remain parked north of the state. The models depict a weak upper trough approaching and moving over the area from the east…early next week. This upper feature combined with pockets of enhanced moisture within the trades could support better shower coverage periodically, mainly over the windward areas.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Slow moving high pressure far north of the area will strengthen slightly over the weekend, supporting strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Saturday for the typically windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island, and the Kaiwi Channel. Winds will likely remain elevated sufficiently long to warrant a time extension of the SCA.

Wind swell waves coming ashore along east facing shores, will keep surf elevated, although below high surf advisory levels. Otherwise, the only other exception to the nearly flat surf conditions will be the arrival of a small south swell today into the weekend, which is expected to deliver near head-high sets along south facing exposures during the peak.
Wet day along the windward sides

World-wide tropical cyclone activity

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A low pressure area located about 150 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands has become a little better defined this morning and the shower activity has increased somewhat since yesterday. Conditions are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. The low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward through the weekend, and then turn to the northeast away from the United States early next week.

This disturbance is being referred to as Invest 99L, here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific

Tropical Storm 12E (Jova) is now active, which is the remnant of recent Atlantic Hurricane Franklin. Here’s a NHC graphical track map, a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing

1.) Disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a surface trough. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high…70 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Storm 14W (Banyan) remains active, here’s a JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

El Nino’s Absence May Fuel a Stormy Hurricane Season
The hurricane season is likely to be extra active this year in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico, thanks to a likely no-show from El Niño.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released an updated hurricane season outlook today (Aug. 9). The new prediction ups the odds for a blustery, extremely active hurricane season – and possibly even the most active since 2010.

“We’re now entering the peak of the season, when the bulk of the storms usually form,” Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement. “The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is, in part, because the chance of El Niño forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.” (El Niño is a climate phenomenon most distinguished by the shift of warm water from the western to the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.)

One other factor fueling a more active hurricane season: The waters off the tropical Atlantic Ocean are warmer than usual.

The new forecast puts the odds of an above-average season at 60 percent, up from the initial forecast of 45 percent in May. In addition, the forecast now predicts between 14 and 19 named storms, or those with sustained winds of 39 mph,  and between two and five major hurricanes with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph.

The NOAA center typically puts out an initial hurricane forecast in late May. This year, they initially predicted between 11 and 17 named storms and between two and four major hurricanes, and about even odds for an average and above-average season.

So far, the season has already had six named storms, double what’s typically expected by this point. (The storms were Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin and Gert). Typically, it takes six months to rack up that many storms; an average season has 12 major storms, six of which become hurricanes and three of which are major hurricanes. Hurricane season typically lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30.