Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:
88 – 76 Lihue, Kauai
88 – 77 Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 77 Molokai
91 – 72 Kahului AP, Maui – Saturday’s high temperature record was 93…back in 1951
88 – 76 Kailua Kona
85 – 72 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday evening:
1.02 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.15 Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.02 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.07 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.41 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday evening:
17 Port Allen, Kauai
25 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27 Molokai
24 Lanai
32 Kahoolawe
24 Maalaea Bay, Maui
32 Waikoloa, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Thunderstorms south and southwest…low pressure far north of the islands
High cirrus over parts of the state…low clouds arriving from the east
Showers locally…not many – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Broad Brush Overview: A typical early August trade wind weather pattern will continue through the upcoming week, thanks to a long lasting ridge of high pressure to the north of the islands. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas, with an occasional shower reaching the leeward sides. The trade winds will be strongest this weekend, before easing slightly Monday through Wednesday…before picking up some later next week.
Looking Further Ahead: Moderately strong high pressure systems are located to our north…which are keeping breezy trade winds alive. Satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies across the state. Meanwhile, there are high cirrus clouds moving across island skies too, which provided some nice color at sunrise. Radar shows a few light showers moving into the windward areas, with a stray shower drifting leeward from time to time.
A ridge of high pressure will remain to the north of the state well into the future, keeping trade winds blowing across the island chain. The trades will remain in the moderate to locally stronger range through this weekend, before easing slightly during the first half of the upcoming work week. The trades are then expected to strengthen back to moderate and locally stronger levels Thursday through next weekend. Showers will be most active during the overnight and early morning hours.
As far as tropical cyclone activity goes here in the Central Pacific: there isn’t expected to be any change…from the quiet reality we now have. Some of the models are showing a tropical disturbance trying to spin up well to the southeast of the islands around August 9th (Wednesday)…and then moving by to the south of the islands around August 13th (next Sunday)…stay tuned.
Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map
Marine environment details: The small craft advisory has been extended through early Monday morning across the typically windier channel waters, Maalaea Bay, and the waters south of the Big Island. Additionally, the Maui County windward waters, Kaiwi Channel and the leeward Oahu waters have been included in the advisory through early Sunday morning. Winds are forecast to briefly trend down to moderately strong Monday, then strengthen once again by mid-week, likely reaching advisory levels over the windier channel waters.
A new south-southwest swell associated with a gale that setup east of New Zealand last weekend, will fill in and peak today, then slowly lower Sunday and Sunday night. The latest spectral density plot at the offshore buoys to the south have spiked through the overnight hours within the 15 and 16 second bands. In addition to this new swell, a lingering south-southeast swell will hold today, before trending down slightly Sunday. For the upcoming week, mainly small south-southwest and south-southeast swells will keep the surf from going flat along south facing shores.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through the weekend, due to strong onshore winds locally, and upstream of the islands. Surf may trend down Monday, although will become rough once again by mid-week as the trades strengthen.
Summer weather…very pleasant
World-wide tropical cyclone activity
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclone
An area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains elongated, and the associated showers and thunderstorms are not well organized. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclone
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a strong tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Monday or early Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the Bay of Campeche by midweek. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled for today has been canceled, but a new mission has been scheduled for Monday, if necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclone
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclone
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific:
No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:
Typhoon 07W (Noru) is active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Tropical Depression 13W (Nalgae) is dissipating, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image – Final Warning
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Alaska’s North Slope Snow Free Season is Lengthening — On the North Slope of Alaska, snow is melting earlier in the spring and the snow-in date is happening later in the fall, according to a new study by CIRES and NOAA researchers. Atmospheric dynamics and sea ice conditions are behind this lengthening of the snow-free season, the scientists found, and the consequences are far reaching—including birds laying eggs sooner and iced-over rivers flowing earlier.
“The timing of snowmelt and length of the snow-free season significantly impacts weather, the permafrost, and wildlife—in short, the Arctic terrestrial system as a whole,” said Christopher Cox, a scientist with CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s Physical Sciences Division in Boulder, Colorado. The study has been accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Focusing on the transition seasons on the North Slope—the springtime snowmelt and the autumn onset of snowpack—the researchers found that since the mid-1970s, the spring melt has been happening earlier, and the first snow has been happening later. The end result: an increase in length of the snow-free season, by about one week per decade from 1975 to 2016. From 1975 to 2016, the spring snowmelt has arrived nearly three days earlier every decade, and from 1979-2016, snow onset has arrived later, by about 4.5 days every decade.
CIRES and NOAA researchers and their colleagues analyzed long-term observations of snow cover and meteorology at the NOAA Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory outside of Utqia?vik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, along with other records of environmental variables in the region.
Despite natural swings up and down, a persistent, long-term warming trend emerged: eight of the 10 earliest melt dates have occurred since 1990, pointing to the influence of warming Arctic temperatures. 2016 experienced the earliest melt, the latest onset of snow in autumn, and the longest snow-free season in 115 years of record-keeping—about 45 percent longer than the average over the previous four decades.
The researchers then began dissecting their data to find weather-related factors that might be contributing to these observed changes. They found different factors at work in spring versus fall. Changes in flow patterns of warm Pacific Ocean air from the south were driving earlier spring snowmelt, while decreasing summer sea ice had the greatest influence on later onset of snowpack in the fall.
The researchers found that large-scale features of atmospheric circulation—in particular, the strength and position of the Aleutian Low, a semi-permanent, subpolar area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Alaska near the Aleutian Islands—largely determined the timing of snowmelt during spring in Alaska, by either facilitating or inhibiting the transport of warm, moist air into the region.
Conversely, in autumn, the amount of open water in the Beaufort and eastern Chukchi Seas appeared to be very influential in affecting the temperature at Utqia?vik and the subsequent timing of the onset of snowpack. The extent of open water in the region during autumn has increased significantly in the past several decades, a signal other studies have linked to Arctic amplification.
The rapid expansion of the North Slope’s snow-free season has had consequences for water resources, wildlife behavior, the plant growing season and more, the research team reported in the new paper. For example, on Cooper Island near Utqia?vik, where a colony of black guillemots has been monitored since 1975, researchers found that the timing of the seabirds’ egg laying correlates with Utqia?vik’s snowmelt, so earlier melt means earlier egg laying. The timing of snowmelt also influenced the timing of peak discharge from the North Slope river system and the start of the vegetative growing season, according to the researchers.
“It’s remarkable how rapidly things are changing in the Arctic and how the longer snow-free season affects so many other patterns—the guillemots, vegetation growth, and fluxes of gases from the tundra,” said Diane Stanitski, co-author of the paper and a scientist at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.
This spring’s snowmelt date at Utqia?vik was late, on June 18, said lead author Cox. This late melt didn’t make it into the paper, because analyses were done by then, but the atmospheric conditions that led to the later melt were consistent with the findings in the paper. Such variability underscores the need for continued monitoring of snow cover, Cox said.
Long-term datasets from the region help scientists understand the reasons behind long-term changes and predict what the region will face in the future. “This study takes an integrated approach that addresses the need to advance Arctic environmental research at the system level, a challenge that has been recognized by the broad scientific community as necessary to improve predictions of future change,” said Cox.
Email Glenn James: 
Helen Says:
Whoa Typhoon Noru looks huge.
Praying for people in southern Japan.
~~~ Hi Helen, yes, TY Noru is still powerful, and tracking straight up through the Japanese Islands.
Agree…stay safe Japan!
Aloha, Glenn