Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

88 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 77  Molokai
90 74  Kahului AP, Mauirecord high temperature Tuesday was 94…back in 1953
86 – 74  Kailua Kona
82 – 70  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:

1.56  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.43  Poamoho RG, Oahu
0.18  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe

0.66  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.68  Waiakea Experiment Stn, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday evening:

27  Port Allen, Kauai
35  Kuaokala, Oahu
29  Molokai
28  Lanai

30  Kahoolawe
35  Maalaea Bay, Maui

29 South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs
Hurricane Fernanda (left) and Tropical Storm Greg (right), with newly formed Tropical Depression 08E (in the middle)
Fernanda continues to head towards Hawaii…although will be running out of steam before it gets close
Fernanda will move into the central Pacific Thursday…and likely to the north of Hawaii
Fernanda is now a Category 1 hurricane (90 mph)
Hurricane Fernanda spinning into the picture…to the far right
Variable clouds…higher level clouds in the vicinity
Showers mostly windward and mountains…and offshore
Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory
…windiest coasts and channel around Maui County and the Big Island

Special Weather Statement…Coastal Flooding Possible:

Coastal flooding associated with King tides will be a possibility the next couple of days. The greatest potential for coastal flooding impacts will be during the mid to late afternoon hours through the weekend, when highest tides are expected.

Waves generated by distant Hurricane Fernanda are expected to lead to increasing surf along east facing shores the next couple of days, and this may lead to greater wave run-up along exposed windward coastlines.

Impacts of the King tides may include flooding of beaches that are normally dry, salt water inundation of typically vulnerable low-lying roads, docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure. The potential for coastal flooding will diminish early next week as the peak daily tides diminish.


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~


Broad Brush Overview: Trade wind weather conditions will continue through Sunday morning, with passing clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain areas, occasionally spreading to leeward areas on the smaller islands. This trade flow should remain somewhat showery through Wednesday, with fewer showers Thursday through most of Sunday. Although it’s too soon to know for sure, increased moisture associated with the remnants of Fernanda may affect the state late this weekend…into early next week.

Details: A moderately strong high pressure system is located generally north of the islands, which is generating moderate to locally stronger trade winds across the Hawaiian Islands. Low clouds embedded in this flow are supplying off and on showers, focused most intently along the windward sides. Meanwhile, we continue to see high and middle level clouds adding some nice color to island skies during the sunrise and sunset periods…especially over the eastern islands.

Looking Ahead: More limited showers are expected Thursday into Saturday, although by late in the weekend and early next week, tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Fernanda, will likely bring a period of wet weather. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Fernanda dissipating to a remnant low, while it is still well east of the Big Island Saturday.

Hurricane Fernanda, still in the eastern Pacific, will continue moving northwest, and as a result…the Hawaiian Islands will need to keep an eye on it. Fernanda will move into our central Pacific Thursday..although will be losing strength quickly as it moves closer. It’s still too early to know exactly what influence this storm could have on the islands, as it moves into the area east or even northeast of the state later this week, although at least high surf can be assumed as we move through the week. Whatever is left of Fernanda [the current hurricane force winds will be long gone], may bring clouds and showers, some of which may be locally heavy, into the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands by later in the upcoming weekend into early next week. However, there’s a chance that most of Fernanda’s rainfall will pass by to the north of the islands. If Fernanda passes by to the northeast and then north of Hawaii, it would cut off our trade winds…bringing sultry conditions into the state for a day or two.

Here’s a weather model showing Fernanda moving by to the north of the islands.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: A high pressure system far northwest of the area, will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for waters around Maui County and the Big Island through early Friday morning.

Very small swells are expected along the north, south, and west facing shores for the next several days.

Hurricane Fernanda, still far east-southeast of the state, has been moving toward the northwest around 10 mph. An east swell currently arriving from Fernanda will build through the week. The eventual size of this swell will be dependent on the exact track and intensity of Fernanda.
Trades with off and on…mostly windward showers

>>> Southern California Weather Brief: An overnight coastal marine layer will persist into early next week. The dominate high pressure system will bring temperatures around normal this week, with a slight cooling for next week. A moist monsoonal flow will bring possible afternoon and evening thunderstorms and showers to the Antelope valley and the San Gabriel mountains into Wednesday.
Mostly clear inland, low clouds offshore


>>> San Francisco Bay area weather brief: Seasonable weather conditions are forecast to persist through much of the week, with temperatures near seasonal averages… along with late night and morning low clouds. A slight warming and drying trend is then expected by the weekend.

Low clouds offshore

World-wide tropical cyclone activity

>>> Atlantic Ocean: 

1.) An elongated low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Fernanda remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm Greg remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Depression 08E remains active, having spun up in the middle of the two systems above, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) A tropical wave located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days and a tropical depression could form well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

2.) Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclones

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fernanda, centered east-southeast of Hawaii. Fernanda is expected to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility Thursday.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific OceanNo active tropical cyclones 

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

New rules urgently needed to protect our oceans, Oxford scientists warn
— Urgent action is needed to protect marine life, with more than 60 per cent of the world’s oceans lacking effective conservation measures, according to new Oxford University study.

Marine scientists from Oxford’s, Department of Zoology, have presented a United Nations (UN) panel with an overview of the risks facing our oceans.The UN members were meeting for the latest round of negotiations towards a possible high seas treaty.

The Oxford report reveals the severe risk to the open ocean from climate change, over-fishing, deep-sea mining, farm and plastics pollution. The paper calls for immediate legal protection of the high seas.

The work was carried out to better understand the role that the ocean’s play in our lives, and considered the high seas, which are beyond national jurisdiction. In total 271 academic studies were considered, all of which have been published in the last five years, since the Rio+20 Earth Summit in 2012.

Dr Lucy Woodall, co-author and Researcher at the University of Oxford, Ocean Research and Conservation Group, said: ‘The function, complexity and connectivity of the oceans are highlighted in the report. It shows that the most remote places on our planet are very relevant to our lives everyday. Recognizing the influence of the high seas it is important to ensure appropriate legal instruments are enacted.’

The Bay of Bengal was flagged as being particularly at a tipping point, which could impact global fishery stocks.  Run off from farmland fertilisers is contaminating the Bay, causing nutrient levels to increase. Nutrients like, nitrate, act as a fertiliser to algae, stimulating bacteria growth, which competes with fish and marine organisms for oxygen.

If oxygen levels in the Bay of Bengal decrease any further, the area is at risk of flipping to a ‘no oxygen’ status. This would result in the formation of new bacteria that then remove nitrates from the water, de-stabilizing the Bay’s ocean ecosystem. The de-nitrified water could then be carried away by ocean currents and reduce productivity elsewhere.

Professor Alex Rogers, Professor in Conservation Biology at Oxford’s Department of Zoology, said: ‘This is very, very important. A lot of states are looking towards developing industrial activities in the ocean – fishing, deep-sea mining, renewable energy, even aquaculture offshore. It’s really vital that we come to some international agreement on how to protect or manage biodiversity on high seas in the face of all these pressures.’

The findings from the report will inform the UN’s review of current marine conservation measures on the high seas. Over time the insights will support them in setting up a legal framework, under a new acronym: Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ).