Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

84 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
81 – 72  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 68  Molokai
88 – 69  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 76  Kailua Kona
84 – 69  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:

1.09  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.53  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
 0.14  Molokai
0.37  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.22  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.31  Pahoa, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday evening:

14  Port Allen, Kauai
27  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
24  Molokai
 22  Lanai
31  Kahoolawe
25  Kahului AP, Maui
27  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Pacific storm track remains north of the islands

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An out-of-season cold front northwest…spotty thunderstorms far south

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Clear to partly cloudy…cloudy areas locally


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A few showers…especially offshore
Looping radar image

 

High Surf Advisory…south facing shores statewide

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: A ridge of high pressure north of the State will keep light to moderate trade winds in place through the weekend. The trades are then expected to increase early next week, as high pressure strengthens north of the island chain. Showers will favor windward and mountain areas through early next week, with a slight increase in trade showers expected Wednesday night into the weekend.

Details: High pressure will hold firm well northeast of the state, while the weakening cold front northwest of the islands shifts eastward. It will end up well northwest of Kauai…before stalling late Wednesday afternoon. The trade winds are expected to ease tonight and Wednesday as the weakening front edges closer to the area. In fact, localized sea breezes will likely develop again Wednesday, particularly over the western end of the State. The airmass is expected to remain dry and stable through the period, as upper level ridging holds over the island chain. As a result, showers should remain light, and focus primarily over windward areas. Some isolated shower activity will be possible again Wednesday afternoon over leeward and interior sections of the islands…due to sea breezes.

Looking Further Ahead: Light to moderate trades will continue for the second half of the work week and through the upcoming weekend, as a ridge of high pressure remains north of the island chain. This will allow for localized sea breezes to develop in the more sheltered areas each afternoon. A mid-level trough will approach from the east Wednesday night through Friday night, then push eastward through the island chain during the weekend. As a result, we should see at least some increase in trade wind showers, as well as some leeward shower development during the afternoon and evening hours. The trade winds will be on the increase by early next week, and trade showers will decrease…as a more stable and drier airmass moves over the island chain.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Trade winds will remain light to moderate into the weekend.

A south-southwest swell will peak tonight before gradually subsiding through Thursday. A high surf advisory has been posted for all south facing through Wednesday afternoon. This swell will be reinforced by another south swell of about equal size, arriving Thursday afternoon, and peaking Friday. The afternoon high tides will steadily increase each day this week reaching over 2.5 feet Friday and Saturday afternoons. These “King” tides, combined with the south swell may translate to beach and street flooding in the typical vulnerable locations.

A small off-season northwest swell will diminish overnight and into Thursday. A trade wind generated swell will provide small to moderate size surf along the east facing shores, with a southeast swell adding to surf heights. This southeast swell will continue into the weekend.

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Summer is here!


>>> Southern California Weather Brief:  Strong high pressure over the area will continue the above normal temperatures for the valleys, interiors, and deserts this week. The night through early morning low clouds and fog across some coastal areas will continue as well. A weak upper trough of low pressure will help with some cooling by the weekend

There is an interesting wrinkle possible for Saturday. Reliable models indicate a weak upper level disturbance rotating northward on the back-side of the high pressure ridge Saturday afternoon. A typical scenario with the break down of the ridge and several days of heating, is to see monsoon like moisture surging northward into southwest California…and this is no exception. It wouldn’t take very much mid-level moisture to see high-based convection building over the area, especially the mountains. This is definitely something to keep an eye on, due to the hot and dry conditions in place…which would be very receptive to fire starts if any lightning was to occur.

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Clear…with low clouds offshore locally


World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cindy, located about 200 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas

NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Deadly heat waves could affect 74 percent of the world’s population – Seventy-four percent of the world’s population will be exposed to deadly heat waves by 2100 if carbon gas emissions continue to rise at current rates, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change. Even if emissions are aggressively reduced, the percent of the world’s human population affected is expected to reach 48 percent.

“We are running out of choices for the future,” said Camilo Mora, associate professor of geography in the College of Social Sciences at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and lead author of the study. “For heat waves, our options are now between bad or terrible. Many people around the world are already paying the ultimate price of heat waves, and while models suggest that this is likely to continue, it could be much worse if emissions are not considerably reduced. The human body can only function within a narrow range of core body temperatures around 37°C (99F). Heat waves pose a considerable risk to human life because hot weather, aggravated with high humidity, can raise body temperature, leading to life threatening conditions.”

Numerous examples, such as the 2003 European heat wave that killed approximately 70,000 people, the 2010 Moscow heat wave that killed 10,000 people and the 1995 Chicago heat wave that killed 700 people are staggering examples of the risk to life posed by heat waves. But beyond these highly cited examples, little was known about how common such killer heat waves are.

A team of researchers lead by Mora conducted an extensive review of over 30,000 relevant publications and found more than 1,900 cases of locations worldwide where high ambient temperatures have killed people since 1980. From those cases, dates were obtained for 783 lethal heat waves in 164 cities across 36 countries, with most cases recorded in developed countries at mid-latitudes. Some of the cities that have experienced lethal heat waves included New York, Washington, Los Angeles, Chicago, Toronto, London, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney and São Paulo.

Threshold for deadly temperatures and humidities

By analyzing the climatic conditions of these lethal heat episodes, researchers identified a threshold beyond which temperatures and humidities become deadly. The area of the planet where such a threshold is crossed for 20 or more days per year has been increasing, and is projected to grow even with dramatic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, about 30 percent of the world’s human population is exposed to such deadly conditions each year.

“Finding a threshold beyond which climatic conditions turn deadly is scientifically important yet frightening,” said Farrah Powell, a UH M?noa graduate student and one of the co-authors in the study. “This threshold now allows us to identify conditions that are harmful to people. And because it is based on documented cases of real people across the globe, it makes it that more credible and relevant. The scary thing is how common those deadly conditions are already.”

By 2100 New York is projected to have around 50 days with temperatures and humidities exceeding the threshold in which people have previously died. That same year, the number of deadly days for Sydney will be 20, 30 for Los Angeles, and the entire summer for Orlando and Houston.

The study also found that the greatest risk to human life from deadly heat was projected for tropical areas. This is because the tropics are hot and humid year round, whereas for higher latitudes the risk of deadly heat is restricted to summer.

“Warming at the poles has been one of the iconic climatic changes associated with the ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases,” said co-author Iain Caldwell, a post-doctoral researcher at UH M?noa. “Our study shows, however, that it is warming in the tropics what will pose the greatest risk to people from deadly heat events. With high temperatures and humidities, it takes very little warming for conditions to turn deadly in the tropics.”

“Climate change has put humanity on a path that will become increasingly dangerous and difficult to reverse if greenhouse gas emissions are not taken much more seriously,” says Mora. “Actions like the withdrawal from the Paris agreement is a step in the wrong direction that will inevitably delay fixing a problem for which there is simply no time to waste.”