Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / June 15-16, 2017

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

83 – 73  Lihue, Kauai
83 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 74  Molokai
88 – 75  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 77  Kailua Kona
83 – 70  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

4.59  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
3.30  Poamoho, Oahu
0.31  Molokai
0.01  Lanai
0.01  Kahoolawe
1.77  Puu Kukui, Maui
2.99  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:

25  Port Allen, Kauai
28  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
24  Molokai
22  Lanai
29  Kahoolawe
24  Maalaea Bay, Maui
21  Pali 2, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Pacific storm track remains far to the north of the islands

Cirrus clouds are clipping the Big Island and Maui

Variable clouds 

Showers locally…mostly over the ocean
Looping radar image

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Broad Brush Overview: Drier and more stable weather will advance westward tonight, as a low pressure system aloft moves southwest away from the island chain. Moderate trade winds will weaken Friday due to a cold front passing far north of the state, resulting in local land and sea breezes into Saturday. Trade winds, although with limited moisture, will build back Sunday. Trade wind showers are likely to increase again around the middle of next week…although should remain on the light side.

Details: A low aloft just southwest of Kauai, continues bringing unstable conditions around the western end of the state. The low is slowly tracking southwest away from the island chain, while drier and more stable air is building in from the east. A few lingering heavy showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Kauai and surrounding waters. The rest of the state will see less showers, with moderate trade winds, with drier conditions reaching Kauai tonight. Cloud cover is expected to decrease generally, with Big Island and Maui still under a high cirrus cloud shield into Friday.

Looking Further Ahead: An out of season cold front approaching well northwest of the state, will decrease the trades into the light to moderate range Friday and Saturday. The low aloft will shift southwest of the state, although will remain close enough to keep conditions somewhat unstable. This should lead to a decrease in trade wind showers across the state, although some leeward upcountry areas may find some showers each afternoon…as localized sea breezes develop in the lighter trade wind flow.

The cold front well northwest of the state will stall Sunday, as high pressure builds back into the area from the east. This will result in strengthening trade winds, with the trades reaching moderate to locally strong levels Monday through the middle of next week. The models then indicate increasing moisture returning on the trades Monday night through around next Wednesday. As a result, we should see drier than normal trade wind weather Saturday night through Monday, with a return to a more typical trade wind shower pattern Monday night onward.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Model guidance generally shows a high pressure ridge moving slowly southward toward the islands, while also weakening. This will slow down the winds, along with a slight veering to a more easterly or even east-southeasterly direction. The ridge is not expected strengthen and shift back north until late Sunday into Monday. When this happens, the trades may become strong enough to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions in the windier channel waters.

An upper low over the offshore waters should produce enough instability to continue off and on thunderstorms through tonight. The highest probabilities for thunderstorms will be over the west and southwest waters. After tonight, more stable conditions should return, as the low slowly weakens and drifts farther from the state.

In terms of surf, we'[ll see the arrival of a couple of south swell trains during the next week. Surf along south facing shores should pick up this weekend through much of next week, as back-to-back south swells arrive from distant sources across the southern Pacific. The first south swell should arrive Friday, peak over the weekend, then slowly lower into the upcoming week. Surf should remain just below advisory level through the peak.

The second south swell will be slightly larger and will likely exceed advisory levels late Monday night through mid-week. The source associated with this swell evolved just south and southeast of New Zealand over the past 24 hours, which will correspond to advisory-level surf along south facing shores here in the islands Tuesday through mid-week.

King Tides (higher than normal water levels/tides), similar to the last week in May around Memorial Day and the end of April, are expected to return next week. Similar impacts associated with coastal flooding in the typical vulnerable coastal areas will become possible beginning as early as Wednesday, and continue each day through the rest of the week…around the daily peak tides. The peak of this event is expected Friday, June 23rd, through the afternoon hours.

Improving weather…lighter trade winds

>>> Southern California Weather Brief: A ridge of high pressure will continue to build across the Southwest United States through early next week, with additional warming expected during this time. The well above normal temperatures will likely continue for much of next week. Moderately strong onshore winds this weekend may delay warming for coastal areas. There will be patchy dense fog across some local beaches…with visibility one quarter mile or less at times.

Mostly clear, low clouds offshore…extending inland locally

World-wide tropical cyclone activity

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday. Additional slow development is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or two. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones