Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / June 14-15, 2017

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

84 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 74  Molokai
88 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 74  Kailua Kona
85 – 68  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:

3.75  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.44  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.35  Molokai
0.11  Lanai
0.01  Kahoolawe
0.89  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.06  Kaupulehu, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday evening:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
29  Kuaokala, Oahu
24  Molokai
20  Lanai
29  Kahoolawe
25  Maalaea Bay, Maui
27  Pali 2, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Pacific storm track remains far to the north of the islands

Thunderstorms in the general vicinity

Variable clouds…with embedded cumulonimbus clouds

Showers locally…some are heavy
Looping radar image

Special Marine Warning…strong thunderstorms Alenuihaha Channel and Maui County leeward waters / Kauai Channel, and Kauai windward waters, along with Oahu leeward and windward waters

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Broad Brush Overview: High pressure ridging far north of the islands will maintain moderate trade winds through Thursday. The trades will ease thereafter into the weekend, as the ridge moves south closer to the islands. An unstable airmass, prompted by an upper level disturbance over the Kauai side of the island chain, will remain in place through Thursday. This will keep a chance of thunderstorms, and the potential for heavy flooding rainfall over the state. Drier more stable atmospherics will then build across the islands Friday into early next week…with showers favoring windward and mountain areas.

Details: The upper level disturbance of low pressure is located over the southern part of the Kauai Channel at the moment. It’s forecast to linger there tonight, before moving away, towards the west-southwest during the day Thursday. Any significant improvement, with less of a threat of heavy rains and thunderstorms…likely won’t arrive until later Thursday into Friday morning.

Looking Further Ahead: A moderately strong high pressure system is located well northeast of Hawaii. An associated ridge extends from the high to north of Kauai. The ridge will be moving south toward the islands Friday evening. This in turn will cause the trades to weaken from moderate to light to moderate over the islands into the weekend…with some daytime sea breezes locally. We can expect the trades to reach locally strong levels early next week.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: The latest model guidance shows a weakness within the ridge north of the islands through the second half of the week, as a series of cold fronts pass across the central Pacific…far north of the state. This weakness, combined with a southward shift of the ridge toward the local waters, will translate to slightly weaker trade winds, especially over the smaller islands Thursday night through Friday night.

Later in the weekend and through the first portion of next week, the trades are forecast to increase, as the ridge shifts northward. This will likely result in small craft conditions due to winds returning across the windier coastal and channel waters. Choppy surf will persist along east facing shores, with a slight downward trend expected Thursday through Saturday, as the winds weaken somewhat. Surf will likely become rough again later in the weekend into next week, as the trades strengthen.

Surf along south facing shores is expected to increase during the weekend and through much of next week, as back-to-back south swells fill in from distant sources across the southern Pacific. The first south swell should arrive through the day Friday, peak over the weekend, then slowly lower into next week. Surf should remain just below advisory level through the peak period. The second south swell will be slightly larger and may reach advisory levels late Monday night through next Wednesday…which will likely correspond to advisory level surf along south facing shores.

An out of season northwest swell will likely arrive Sunday…and hold through Monday before trending down.

 
Locally heavy showers with thunderstorms today

>>> Southern California Weather Brief: A high pressure system over the Sonoran Desert will strengthen and expand into the Southwest United States. Well above normal temperatures are forecast through next week, with near record heat possible early next week. Fair skies are expected at this time…except for patchy night through morning low clouds and fog along the coast.

Mostly clear…a few low clouds locally along the coast and offshore

World-wide tropical cyclone activity

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

A complex area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclone

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones