Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:

79 – 69  Lihue, Kauai
82 – 71  Honolulu, Oahu
81 – 63  Molokai
84 – 61  Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 73  Kona Int’l AP
82 – 66  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Sunday evening:

1.88  Kilohana, Kauai
0.84  Waihee Pump, Oahu
 0.02  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.04  Kaupo Gap, Maui
0.34  Lower Kahuku, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Sunday evening:

24  Poipu, Kauai
35  Kuaokala, Oahu
21  Molokai
 21  Lanai
28  Kahoolawe
28  Kapalua, Maui
28  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A cold front far north of Hawaii

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A few thunderstorms far south of the state

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A cloud band will be over Maui County tonight

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Showers over the central islands – Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…Kauai down through the Alenuihaha Channel

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad brush overview: The showery remnants of an old front will spread from Oahu down to Maui County tonight, and to the Big Island Monday. Trade winds will become stronger in the wake of the band, due to a new high pressure system well to the northwest. The high will weaken as it passes north of the islands Tuesday, allowing the trades to moderate, and lingering showers near the Big Island to diminish. Humid southwest kona winds will spread over the smaller state Wednesday into Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure moves south towards the Big Island. A late season cold front will stall over the smaller islands Friday.

Details: Clouds and showers, over mostly windward areas (although spreading leeward at times) will reach Maui County tonight, and the Big Island Monday…lingering into the night. As expected, the trades are picking up now, and will continue to become locally stronger. The returning trades are thanks to a moderately strong high pressure cell, which is approaching well to the northwest…weakening as it does so. However, these trades won’t last long, as by Tuesday the high pressure cell will pass to our north and weaken. As a result, a more typical trade wind weather is expected…with more sunshine and fewer showers then.

As the high departs to the northeast Wednesday, the ridge of high pressure will quickly push south over the islands, in advance of an unseasonably strong cold front passing to the north. This will cause a fairly abrupt decrease in wind speeds as it gets closer. Light breezes over both Maui County and Big Island will lead to more widespread land and sea breeze circulations there. In contrast, the winds will turn to muggy southerlies and southwesterly kona’s…over Kauai and Oahu.

The models are showing this cold front will have a decent amount of moisture to work with, along and ahead of it. Thus, we could see some pretty active and possibly locally heavy pre-frontal shower bands developing. There is good agreement in the model guidance, with the front reaching Kauai on Thursday, Oahu Thursday night, and then stalling over the smaller islands…as it begins to break up Friday.

Looking ahead: The cold front will gradually break up over the islands into next weekend, with breezy trades returning. Showers will be somewhat slow to diminish in a rather moist environment…so a transition to fairly wet trades is possible.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Northeasterly trade winds will gradually strengthen through Monday, as surface high pressure builds far northwest of the islands. The low level flow is expected to weaken and veer around to the southeast late Tuesday, as the surface high shifts eastward, and a cold front approaches from the northwest. South to southwest winds may briefly approach the SCA threshold across parts of the waters over the western end of the island chain Wednesday, as the front moves closer to the state. North to northeast winds will develop in the wake of the front…as it pushes down the island chain Thursday.

The current northwest swell will gradually subside through early Monday. A reinforcing northwest swell is expected to arrive later Monday, lingering into mid-week. Surf along south facing shores will be slightly above typical Spring-time heights into Monday, due to a south-southwest swell. This swell will gradually lower through Tuesday, before a new south swell arrives Wednesday, and continues through Friday. Surf along east facing shores will begin to rise once again Monday, as the trades return, and a small north-northeast swell fills in.

In the long term, the latest wave model guidance continues to depict a large northwest swell arriving in the islands Thursday. If this swell arrives as expected, surf along exposed north and west facing shores of most of the smaller islands, may approach the high surf warning criteria Thursday night into Friday.

 

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Southern California weather summary: Moist southwest to west flow will support cooler conditions and increasing cloudiness, with showers at times through Tuesday, focused to the north of Santa Barbara. Westerly flow aloft and fair skies will support some warming mid-week. More significant warming with locally gusty northerly winds are likely later in the week.

 

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Increasing clouds, although with most rain north of Santa Barbara

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Partly to mostly cloudy



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins May 15th

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 01B (Maarutha) remains active in the Bay of Bengal, here’s the graphical track map, a satellite image – Final Warning


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: March Was Second Hottest on Record Globally – The exceptional global heat of the past few years continued last month, with March ranking as the second hottest on record for the planet. It followed the second hottest February and third hottest January, showing just how much Earth has warmed from the continued buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

March was 2.02 degrees Fahrenheit (1.12 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951-1980 average, according to NASA data released Friday. It ranks behind only March 2016, which was 2.29 degrees Fahrenheit (1.27 degrees Celsius) above that same average. NASA’s global temperature records extend back 137 years.

While global temperatures in 2016 received a small boost from an exceptionally strong El Niño — which features warmer-than normal ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific — the majority of the temperature rise is due to human-caused global warming.

Current levels of carbon dioxide — the main greenhouse gas driving up global temperatures — are unprecedented in human history, and if they continued unabated, could reach a level not seen in the atmosphere in 50 million years, according to a recent study.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, carbon dioxide levels have risen from about 280 parts per million to more than 400 ppm. Those levels are expected to top 410 ppm in the next few weeks.

While 2017 isn’t expected to top 2016 as the hottest year on record globally, in part because El Niño has dissipated (though there are some signs it could return later this year), it is still likely to rank among the hottest years, according to projections from the U.K. Met Office.

So far, global temperatures this year are on track with those projections, Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said.

“We have said a number of times now that we would likely see three record years in a row and then another very warm, but perhaps not record year, in 2017, so the small number of data we have so far for 2017 also concur with that,” he said in an email last month.

Of the 17 hottest years on record, 16 have occurred in the 21st century (the exception was the strong El Niño year of 1998), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The five warmest years have all occurred since 2010.