Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

77 – 64  Lihue, Kauai
79 – 69  Honolulu, Oahu
78 – 69  Molokai
81 – 68  Kahului AP, Maui
81 – 70  Kona Int’l AP
81 – 66  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

0.17  Anahola, Kauai
0.96  Ahuimanu Loop, Oahu
 0.64  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.03  Ulupalakua, Maui
1.12  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday evening:

13  Poipu, Kauai
21  Kuaokala, Oahu
12  Molokai
 07  Lanai
09  Kahoolawe
10  Kaupo Gap, Maui
13  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A large area of low pressure is spinning well north of the islands

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A large swath of clouds covers some of the state…with embedded thunderstorms

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Clear to partly cloudy Kauai and Oahu…partly to mostly cloudy elsewhere

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Showers locally…some are heavy
 Looping radar image



High Surf advisory…north and west shores of Kauai and north shore of Oahu

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad brush overview: Unsettled weather, with heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue across the state into Friday, as an upper level disturbance passes over the island chain. Lingering moisture over the eastern islands has spread to Oahu, and may reach Kauai tonight, bringing an increased threat of heavy rain for those islands. Gradually improving conditions are expected during the weekend, with a more settled weather pattern and light winds…and possible humid conditions with volcanic haze.

Details: Lingering moisture across Maui County and the Big Island continues to bring showers to those islands. Moisture temporarily spread west to Oahu, with showers locally there. Radar images indicate that there are embedded heavier showers throughout the area, generally offshore from the windward sides of Maui and the Big Island. Another trough of low pressure currently near Kauai, will pass eastward over the islands tonight. The passing of this trough, with its cold air aloft, will keep the atmosphere unstable, prompting the development of more generous rainfall. Moisture may reach west to Kauai, increasing the threat of heavy rain for that island as well. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through the night for all islands.

The upper level trough will gradually shift further east Friday, leading to improving weather conditions for the state. Light southeasterly winds are expected, then turning more south during the weekend, as another cold front approaches the islands from the northwest. The airmass will be more stable over us then, although there may still be enough moisture to bring showers to the islands. This will be especially true during the afternoon and evening hours…as sea breezes develop over the islands, triggering upcountry clouds and showers. Additionally, it may also feel more muggy due to the increased moisture and light winds. Volcanic emissions (vog) from the Big Island vents, may spread to the smaller islands under these south to southeasterly winds.

Looking ahead: We’ll find another cold front stalling and weakening northwest of the area Tuesday and Wednesday, with little in the way of associated rainfall expected across our area. In the meantime, a surface ridge of high pressure will establish itself just north of the area, while a mid-level ridge builds in over the area as well. The expected result will be a gradual return of the trades, though they may be light enough for local land and sea breeze circulations as well. The mid-level ridge will keep the atmosphere rather stable…so generally dry weather will be the result.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Observations at the nearshore buoys have remained a few feet higher than predicted, due to a large northwest swell impacting the islands. This trend will likely continue, before slowly lowering tonight through the weekend. As a result, the small craft advisory and high surf warning for the exposed beaches and waters remains in place at the time of this writing. Seas should lower just below advisory criteria tonight. At the beaches, surf will likely remain around advisory levels through tonight before dropping Friday.

Another gale force low pressure system is forecast to develop several hundred miles northwest of Midway Island near the International Date Line Friday into the weekend. A moderate west-northwest swell is expected from this source Sunday night into the new week ahead. If this swell comes in slightly larger than predicted, advisory level surf will become a possibility late Sunday night into Monday, along exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands.

Local winds will remain in the light to moderate category as a weak cold front dissipates over the eastern waters, and a ridge of high pressure builds over the islands this weekend. Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast, due to a combination of this weakening front…and an upper disturbance over the region.

 

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High surf north and west shores…and continued unsettled weather locally

Southern California Weather Summary: High pressure and a weak offshore flow will persist through Sunday…with much above normal high temperatures. Dry weather with continued above normal temperatures are expected through early next week. A slight cool down is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, although temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year. There will be high cirrus clouds at times through this extended forecast period.

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Mostly clear…high cirrus clouds approaching to the west
Looping radar for Southern California



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins May 15th

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Eastern Pacific Basin

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2017 hurricane season begins June 1st

Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclone


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Enawo) has regenerated over the South Indian Ocean, here’s a graphical track map, along with a satellite image of the system…and what the computer models are show

Tropical Cyclone 11S remains active over the South Indian Ocean, here’s a graphical track map, along with a satellite image of the system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: The Hawaiian Islands are home to the largest documented shoreline collapse in history, an ancient seaward landslide that sent rocks from the island of Oahu to sites more than 100 miles offshore – The Hawaiian Islands are home to the largest documented shoreline collapse in history, an ancient seaward landslide that sent rocks from the island of Oahu to sites more than 100 miles offshore. The avalanche of debris from the northeast shore of Oahu probably occurred between 1.5 and 3 million years ago, and it undoubtedly created one of the largest tsunamis in Earth’s history, a wave large enough to inundate every coastline of the northern Pacific Ocean.

Today, geologists are studying whether seismic and tectonic forces are creating the potential for a similar disaster on the southeast shore of the big island of Hawaii, near Kilauea volcano. The world’s most active volcano, Kilauea is continually growing larger. At the same time, its seaward flank is moving toward the Pacific, currently at the rate of about 10 centimeters per year. Kilauea’s movement takes several forms. Layers of lava and sediment atop the mountain are pulled down by the force of gravity. The entire mountain itself also moves slowly out to sea as magma derived from deep within the earth’s mantle intrudes into the core of the volcano.

“From previous studies, we know that Kilauea is the site of an active landslide, the Hilina slump, which has moved in historic times,” said Julia Morgan, assistant professor of Earth Science at Rice University. “We now recognize that Kilauea also experienced a catastrophic landslide in the past, possibly within 25,000-50,000 years, which is quite recent in geologic terms.”

The 10-by-15 mile Hilina slump is partially detached from the seaward flank of Kilauea, and is thought to be a candidate for catastrophic collapse. At this week’s fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, Morgan will present new findings that the debris left over from the last catastrophic landslide on Kilauea is forming a buffer that stabilizes the Hilina slump. Morgan and her colleagues, Gregory Moore at the University of Hawaii and David Clague at Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), reached this conclusion after a comprehensive analysis of two offshore seismic and seafloor mapping surveys conducted in 1998 by the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and MBARI.

They found that the most recent collapse on Kilauea involved a detached piece of the mountain that was similar in size to the Hilina slump and located immediately to its northeast. When this section of the volcano slid away, it settled beneath the ocean at the base of Kilauea. As the entire volcano grew and slid oceanward, this debris piled up, much like snow piles up in front of a snowplow. The result is a broad, bench-like, submarine structure that sits at the foot of the mountain, about 15-20 miles off the coast. The downslope edge of the Hilina slump now impinges on the outer bench.

“Based on what we’ve seen, we believe that the outer bench is still growing, and we expect that the buttressing effect it exerts on the Hilina slump will increase accordingly,” Morgan said. “This interaction reduces the likelihood of catastrophic detachment of the Hilina slump under present conditions.”

However, because the outer bench contains a good deal of loose sediment and debris, it is also subject to catastrophic failure. For instance, the bench is riddled with small-scale faults and fractures. A massive volcanic eruption or a large earthquake like the 7.2-magnitude temblor that hit Hawaii in 1975 could shake the outer bench to pieces. Morgan said there is geologic evidence that something similar occurred on nearby Mauna Loa about 100,000 years ago.