Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

88 – 79  Lihue, Kauai
90 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu – record Thursday 93…back in 1984
88 – 77  Molokai AP
91 – 78  Kahului AP, Maui – record Thursday 95…back in 1968
90 – 80  Kona AP
86 – 73  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Friday morning:

1.40  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.28  Kahana, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.25  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.13  Honaunau, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Friday morning:

24  Port Allen, Kauai
42  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
31  Molokai
32  Lanai37
40  Kahoolawe
37  Kaupo Gap
35  Waikoloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Category 2 Hurricane Lester moving towards our islands…on a weakening trend

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Hurricane Watch…over Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island!

 

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Hurricane Lester is intimidating…as it continues to spin in our direction  

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Close-up view of the central eye for Hurricane Lester 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13E/imagery/vis-animated.gif

 

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Just a few showers approaching the windward sides – Looping radar image

A Hurricane Watch…is in effect for Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe and Maui  

A Hurricane Watch…for all waters east of Oahu including Oahu’s windward waters

High Surf Advisory…for east shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island

Small Craft Advisory…for all Hawaiian waters

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

I’d like to point out that we have inclement weather conditions on the horizon, and I may lose power, which would cut off my ongoing weather updates…just so you know.

A windy trade wind weather pattern is expected today…with major changes tonight into the weekend. Tropical Depression Madeline will depart and track away from the islands. Winds will increase from the north tonight over the Big Island, Maui County Saturday, and the over Oahu Saturday afternoon…and Kauai Saturday night. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong near 1029 millibar high pressure system northeast of Hawaii. In contrast, hurricane Lester’s central pressure is a very low 957 millibars. Locally strong and gusty trade winds will continue across parts of the state over the next 12 hours. Much stronger winds will increase tonight into the weekend, in advance of Hurricane Lester…with the potential for hazardous weather for the entire state over the Holiday weekend.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

There will be an increase in deep layer moisture…as the periphery of Lester moves over the eastern islands tonight. We should see showers increase in coverage and intensity…over both Maui and the Big Island. Tropical moisture will overspread the rest of the island chain…from east to west into Saturday. This rainfall event could very easily lead to serious flooding issues. Unsettled conditions are expected to continue through Sunday in association with Lester. Looking further ahead, as we get into Labor Day through Tuesday, Lester will be moving away from the state. This will result in improving conditions with a more typical trade wind pattern becoming established across the Aloha state through the rest of the week.

HAZARDS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS:

WIND: Hurricane conditions (74+ mph winds) are possible over Hawaii and Maui Counties tonight through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible over Oahu Saturday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lester will arrive in Hawaiian waters the next couple of days, including the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Surf generated these swells will peak this weekend in the main Hawaiian Islands, becoming very large and possibly damaging along exposed shorelines.

RAIN: Heavy rains associated with Lester may reach Hawaii and Maui counties late today into Saturday, and may impact Oahu Saturday and Saturday night.

Marine environment details: A tight pressure gradient will continue over the islands today as Madeline continues to move further away from the islands.

The large and very dangerous swell generated by Hurricane Lester will be spreading across the island waters. A high surf advisory is currently in effect for the east facing shores of most islands. In due course during the next 12 to 30 hours, the advisory will likely be elevated to a warning. As Lester passes from east to west, surf will quickly rise along the north facing exposures and will likely exceed advisory-levels by the end of the weekend. With the large surf, coastal flooding due to surge and overwash will become a possibility, which could translate to road closures in the locations that are typically vulnerable to wave runup.

The latest advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center depicts the highest probabilities for tropical storm force winds occurring over the windward waters tonight through Sunday, which support hurricane watches for waters around the Big Island and Maui, as well as Oahu windward waters. These areas will be expanded or contracted over the next 48 hours depending on the track of Lester.

 

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Generally ok weather for the time being  


World-wide tropical cyclone activity..

 

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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about a 180 miles to the west-northwest of the central Azores…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0716W5+gif/203810W_sm.gif

1.)  A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur while it approaches the Lesser Antilles and continues westward into the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Storm 09L (Hermine) is now inland over Georgia, located about 55 miles west-southwest of Savannah, Georgia…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916W5+gif/205108W_sm.gif

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

1.)  A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, and continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Locally heavy rain, flash floods and mud slides are likely in these areas starting later today and continuing through the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

2.) A weak area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is expected to meander during the next few days, and any development should be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Depression Madeline remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located about 445 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

Hurricane Lester remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 435 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer model are showing

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 15W (Namtheun) remains active, located about 323 NM south of Sasebo, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image …and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Climate change has less impact on drought than previously expected – As a multiyear drought grinds on in the Southwestern United States, many wonder about the impact of global climate change on more frequent and longer dry spells. As humans emit more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, how will water supply for people, farms, and forests be affected?

A new study from the University of California, Irvine and the University of Washington shows that water conserved by plants under high CO2 conditions compensates for much of the effect of warmer temperatures, retaining more water on land than predicted in commonly used drought assessments.

According to the study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the implications of plants needing less water with more CO2 in the environment changes assumptions of climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, wildfire risk, and plant growth.

The study compares current drought indices with ones that take into account changes in plant water use. Reduced precipitation will increase droughts across southern North America, southern Europe and northeastern South America. But the results show that in Central Africa and temperate Asia — including China, the Middle East, East Asia and most of Russia — water conservation by plants will largely counteract the parching due to climate change.

“This study confirms that drought will intensify in many regions in the future,” said coauthor James Randerson, UCI professor of Earth system science. “It also shows that plant water needs will have an important influence on water availability, and this part of the equation has been neglected in many drought and hydrology studies.”

Recent studies have estimated that more than 70 percent of our planet will experience more drought as carbon dioxide levels quadruple from pre-industrial levels over about the next 100 years. But when researchers account for changes in plants’ water needs, this falls to 37 percent, with bigger differences concentrated in certain regions.

The reason is that when Earth’s atmosphere holds more carbon dioxide, plants actually benefit from having more of the molecules they need to build their carbon-rich bodies. Plants take in carbon dioxide through tiny openings called stomata that cover their leaves. But as they draw in carbon dioxide, moisture escapes. When carbon dioxide is more plentiful, the stomata don’t need to be open for as long, and so the plants lose less water. The plants thus draw less water from the soil through their roots.

Global climate models already account for these changes in plant growth. But many estimates of future drought use today’s standard indices, like the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which only consider atmospheric variables such as future temperature, humidity and precipitation.

“New satellite observations and improvements in our understanding hydrological cycle have led to significant advances in our ability to model changes in soil moisture,” said Randerson. “Unfortunately, using proxy estimates of drought stress can give us misleading results because they ignore well-established principles from plant physiology.”

Planners will need accurate long-term drought predictions to design future water supplies, anticipate ecosystem stresses, project wildfire risks and decide where to locate agricultural fields.

“In some sense there’s an easy solution to this problem, which is we just have to create new metrics that take into account what the plants are doing,” said lead author Abigail Swann, a University of Washington assistant professor of atmospheric sciences. “We already have the information to do that; we just have to be more careful about ensuring that we’re considering the role of the plants.”

Is this good news for climate change? Although the drying may be less extreme than in some current estimates, droughts will certainly increase, researchers said, and other aspects of climate change could have severe effects on vegetation.

“There’s a lot we don’t know, especially about hot droughts,” Swann said. The same drought at a higher temperature might have more severe impacts, she noted, or might make plants more stressed and susceptible to pests.

“Even if droughts are not extremely more prevalent or frequent, they may be more deadly when they do happen,” she said.