Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the minimums Wednesday:

78 – 59  Lihue, Kauai
79 – 63  Honolulu, Oahu
79 – 56  Molokai AP
81 – 56  Kahului AP, Maui
82 – 62  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Wednesday evening:

0.01  Lihue, Kauai
0.01  Olomana, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Maui
0.00  Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Wednesday evening:

12  Waimea Heights, Kauai – SW
17  Makua Range, Oahu – NE
18  Molokai – ENE
13  Lanai – ENE
15  Kahoolawe – NE
23  Kapalua, Maui – NNE
22 Pali 2, Big Island – SE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Fragmenting cold front moving by just to the north of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Scattered low clouds in our area…with thunderstorms
far to our southwest

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear with partly cloudy areas locally, the ragged
cloud band associated with a dissipating cold front
very near Kauai

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Limited showers – looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…most coasts and channels across the state

High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai, Oahu,
Molokai, north shore of Maui, west shore of the Big Island

High Surf Advisory…for the north shore of the Big Island

Marine Weather Statement…a large and dangerous northwest
swell will produce harbor surges and large breaking waves at
the harbor entrances exposed to this swell. This includes the
Hanalei, Waianae, Haleiwa, and Honokohau boat harbors

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Light and variable winds, becoming light trades into Friday…followed by light southeast breezes along with more vog again by the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find high pressure systems west and far east-northeast of the islands….with an associated ridge over Kauai and Oahu. In addition, there are several deep gale low pressure systems far to the north and northeast of Hawaii. The gale low to the northeast has an associated cold front, which continues to move by very near Kauai. We’ll find one more night of these light and variable winds, with periods of vog locally. The forecast then shows trade winds Thursday through Friday, which hopefully will blow the vog away. As we get into the weekend, a cold front will approach the state, swinging our winds around to the southeast…with returning volcanic haze over many areas of the state. Thereafter, and in the wake of the cold fronts passage Monday, chilly north to northeasterly winds will move over the state for a few days early next week…locally rather strong and gusty.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol…animated graphic – showing vog forecast

A relatively cool and dry air mass remains over the state…with very limited showers. Dry air continues to come into the state, so showers continue to be very limited everywhere. This is due to the dry and stable atmosphere that is parked over the Hawaiian Islands at this time. We have light winds currently, with daytime onshore flowing sea breezes, and in combination with the daytime heating of the islands…will prompt afternoon clouds to form over the interior sections. As the trade winds return Thursday and Friday, a cold front moving by to our north will likely contribute a few showers along our windward sides. The next best chance of a cold front arriving into the state would be late Sunday into next Monday, which could bring showers and stronger winds our way then. These winds will bring another short period of winter coolness to the state for a couple of days…along with lots of passing windward showers into mid-week.

Here in Maui County…It’s mostly clear early this Wednesday morning…with light vog. Here in upcountry Kula we have an air temperature of 44.9F degrees just after sunrise. The temperature at near the same time was 57 degrees down in Kahului, 61 out in Hana, 59 at Maalaea Bay…and 43 atop the Haleakala Crater. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe was 61 degrees, 57 at Lanai City, with 63 at the Molokai airport.

– We’re into the middle afternoon now, and the view from here at my upcountry Kula weather tower…shows tons of very thick volcanic haze! The onshore sea breezes, combined with the daytime heating of Maui, is bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies up the slopes of both the West Maui Mountains, and Haleakala. It definitely doesn’t feel like showers will be falling, although it has gotten darker at times this afternoon…with the thicker cloudy periods. I can also see very large waves breaking along the north shore from here to0.

– Early evening, before sunset, under rapidly clearing skies…although the thick vog is holding fast! The temperature at 555pm was a relatively warm 69.8 degrees, although it’s heading down for sure. / Now at 755pm it’s 52.8 under a star filled sky, with the temperature absolutely going down into the low to mid 40’s by Thursday morning – by the way, at near the same time, it was a much warmer 72 down in Kahului, and 41 atop the Haleakala Crater. Speaking of the Crater, I was up on the slopes again this morning skateboarding. I love this blend of snow skiing, surfing and snowboarding…that I’m able to do in my large backyard just up the mountain from here in Kula!

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Wednesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: 


Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the Southwest Pacific Ocean, located 398 NM west of Suva, Fiji, with sustained winds of 63 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Cyclone 12P (Tatiana) remains active in the Coral Sea, located 559 NM west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, with sustained winds of 52 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: 

Tropical Cyclone 10S (Daya) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located 361 NM south of Saint Denis, La Reunion Island, with sustained winds of 52 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  Are we impacting the future of our planet for thousands of years? – The Earth may suffer irreversible damage that could last tens of thousands of years because of the rate humans are emitting carbon into the atmosphere.

In a new study in Nature Climate Change, researchers at Oregon State University, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and collaborating institutions found that the longer-term impacts of climate change go well past the 21st century.

“Much of the carbon we are putting in the air from burning fossil fuels will stay there for thousands of years — and some of it will be there for more than 100,000 years,” said Peter Clark, an Oregon State University paleoclimatologist and lead author on the article. “People need to understand that the effects of climate change on the planet won’t go away, at least not for thousands of generations.”

LLNL’s Benjamin Santer said the focus on climate change at the end of the 21st century needs to be shifted toward a much longer-term perspective.

“Our greenhouse gas emissions today produce climate-change commitments for many centuries to come,” Santer said. “Today’s actions — or inaction — will have long-term climate consequences for generations of our descendants.”

“The long-term view sends the chilling message what the real risks and consequences are of the fossil fuel era,” said Thomas Stocker of the University of Bern in Switzerland, who is past co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Working Group I. “It will commit us to massive adaptation efforts so that for many, dislocation and migration becomes the only option.”

Sea level rise is one of the most noticeable impacts of global warming, yet its effects are just starting to be seen, according to the article. The latest IPCC report calls for sea level rise of one meter by the year 2100. In the new study, however, the authors look at four different sea level-rise scenarios based on different rates of warming, from a low rate that could only be reached with massive efforts to eliminate fossil fuel use over the next few decades, to a higher rate based on the consumption of half the remaining fossil fuels over the next few centuries.

With just two degrees (Celsius) warming in the low-end scenario, sea levels are predicted to eventually rise by about 25 meters. With seven degrees warming at the high-end scenario, the rise is estimated at 50 meters, although over a period of several centuries to millennia.

“It takes sea level rise a very long time to react — on the order of centuries,” Clark said. “It’s like heating a pot of water on the stove; it doesn’t boil for quite a while after the heat is turned on — but then it will continue to boil as long as the heat persists. Once carbon is in the atmosphere, it will stay there for tens or hundreds of thousands of years, and the warming, as well as the higher seas, will remain.”

For the low-end scenario, an estimated 122 countries have at least 10 percent of their population in areas that will be directly affected by rising sea levels, and some 1.3 billion people — or 20 percent of the global population — may be directly affected. The impacts become greater as the warming and sea level rise increases.

The new paper makes the fundamental point that considering the long time scales of the carbon cycle and of climate change means that reducing emissions slightly or even significantly is not sufficient. “To spare future generations from the worst impacts of climate change, the target must be zero — or even negative carbon emissions — as soon as possible,” Clark said.

The researchers’ work was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the German Science Foundation and the Swiss National Science Foundation