Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday:

80 Lihue, Kauai
85 Honolulu, Oahu
80 Molokai
84 Kahului, Maui
85 Kailua Kona
81 Hilo, Hawaii

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 810pm Wednesday evening:


Kailua Kona – 79
Hilo, Hawaii
– 73

Haleakala Summit –   43
(near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 36 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs
Beautiful beach on Kauai

strong and gusty trades prevailing…increasing
a notch later Thursday into Saturday

Shower activity will be rather limited – with a modest
increase along our windward sides late Thursday into

Small Craft Wind Advisory…over all of Hawaii’s
coastal and channel waters

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions…as of Wednesday evening:

29  Puu Lua, Kauai – NE
35  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu – NNE
33  Molokai – ENE
38  Lanai – NE
32  Kahoolawe – NE
30  Kapalua,
Maui – NE
42  Waikoloa, Big Island – NE

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Wednesday evening (545pm totals):

0.66  Kilohana, Kauai
0.09  Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
0.04  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.50  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.62  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

The gusty trade winds will prevail across our Hawaiian Islands, picking up a notch Thursday into Friday, finally beginning to soften later this weekend into early next week…probably. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…focused on the Hawaiian Islands. ~~~ We see a moderately strong, near 1029 millibar high pressure system located to our north, moving steadily eastward…along with a second near 1028 millibar high pressure cell to the northeast. At the same time, we see a weak cold front to our north, between the high pressure cell to our north, and our islands. Our winds will be generally from the northeast, which will remain locally rather strong and gusty through most of the upcoming weekend. As we move into early next week, this trade wind flow will ease up for a few days, stay tuned on this possibility.

Satellite imagery shows scattered high clouds to the northeast of the islands…with low clouds around the edges as well.
The majority of the lower level clouds in our area are banked-up along our windward sides. The higher level clouds noted earlier in the day, are now offshore over the ocean to the northeast. Here’s a looping radar image, showing a few light showers moving across the island chain…generally over the central islands at the time of this writing. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we see the higher level clouds continuing to move away towards the northeast, and thinning as they go. There will likely be a modest increase in showers, as a weak shower band moves through the state later in the day Thursday into Friday morning.

As we move through the second half of this week, the only spike in rainfall will arrive Thursday evening into Friday morning…as a band of showers moves through the state. Our winds, at least in those windiest areas, will continue to gust up into the 30+ mph range in those windiest places. The outlook over the next few days should include gusts up to 40 mph…or a bit stronger than that. These gusty trades will bring a few passing showers to our windward sides, and perhaps even a couple over into our leeward sides on the smaller islands at times. There are no dynamic cold fronts on our horizon, nor any rainfall enhancing upper level low pressure systems, thus no major rainfall events are expected. We should however see an increase in showers later Thursday into Friday, although this won’t be a big deal. The latest model guidance shows a shower producing frontal boundary arriving around the middle of next week too, stay tuned on this as well. We’ll likely see an increase in high cloudiness this weekend, which will dim and filter our warm Hawaiian sunshine then. I’ll be back early Thursday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Wednesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula, Maui weather tower, the air temperature was 54.9 degrees at 615am on this Wednesday morning. An area of middle level clouds lit the skies up earlier this morning, while otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies were around at sunrise. It looks like a very nice day is on tap, with lots of sunshine beaming down, although at the same time…our gusty trade winds will keep conditions feeling quite comfortable. Now at 8am HST, skies have cleared almost totally, with an air temperature of 70 degrees…really nice!

It’s now 120pm in the early afternoon, under partly cloudy skies, and light breezes…with an air temperature of 76.1 degrees. Looking down towards the central valley, I see hazy conditions, which looks like vog, although with the gusty trade winds blowing…I’m doubtful about that.

It’s now early evening, at 6pm under clear to partly cloudy skies, light breezes and a warm 73.8 degrees. The last few days were spring on the calender, although they could have easily been in the summer season. Perhaps its just that I’m still acclimatizing to the tropics, after being in the temperature climate zone of northern California so recently. At any rate, I’m pretty sure that there were very few folks that minded the nice weather lately.

Extra…great underwater video

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Atlantic Ocean:
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a
satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea:

Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Eastern Pacific:
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Central Pacific Ocean:
The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

North Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans:
There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting:  Are Large Dams Economical?  A study of 245 large dams carried out at Oxford University shows that big hydro-power is uneconomic. Actual costs are typically double pre-construction estimates – and have not improved over 70 years.

Researchers at Oxford University have found that planners and policymakers systematically underestimate the costs and time required to implement large dam projects.

The actual costs of large dams were 96% higher than the estimate, on average, and implementation took 44% longer than scheduled. The new report thus explicitly states that large dams are not economical: “We find that even before accounting for negative impacts on human society and environment, the actual construction costs of large dams are too high to yield a positive return.”

The study is based on the most comprehensive economic analysis of large dams ever undertaken. “Large dams” refers to dams with a wall height in excess of 15m.

Since 1934, no improvement in economic assessments

The study, which is based on a representative sample of 245 large hydro-power dams built in 65 different countries between 1934 and 2007, concludes that cost and time overruns have not improved over time.

“Dam budgets today are as wrong as at any time during the 70 years for which data exist”, said Atif Ansar, a co-author of the study. “Dam planners seem to not learn from the past.

“For example, Brazil’s” Itaipu dam, built in the 1970s, suffered a +240% cost overrun that impaired the nation’s public finances for three decades. Despite producing much-needed electricity, Itaipu will likely never pay back the costs incurred to build it.

“Regardless, Brazil is currently building the controversial Belo Monte hydroelectric project, which has proved non-viable even before opening and awaits a fate like Itaipu’s. China, Indonesia, Pakistan and other nations show similar amnesic behavior regarding the building of dams.”

Liars and fools

The study cites two reasons for these immense cost and time overruns: firstly, both experts and laypersons are systematically “too optimistic about the time, costs, and benefits of a decision”. Secondly, project promoters deceive the decision-makers and the public with strategic misrepresentations.

Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, also a co-author, commented on the causes of the highly inaccurate budgets for dams: “Experts making forecasts about mega-projects can be usefully grouped into ‘fools’ or ‘liars’.