Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday:

80  Lihue, Kauai
77  Honolulu, Oahu
80  Molokai
83  Kahului, Maui
85  Kailua Kona
82  Hilo, Hawaii

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 910pm Saturday evening:


Kailua Kona – 79
Poipu, Kauai
– 68

Haleakala Summit –   39
(near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 30 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

The leading edge of a slow moving cold front is trying to push
down into the state – which will bring wet weather, and possible
localized flooding later Sunday and Monday – first on Kauai and
Oahu, and then down the chain to Maui County and the Big Island

Prefrontal showers will be light to moderately heavy…although
more generous at times locally

southeast to southwest ahead of, and along the cold
frontthen veering to the northwest and north, with a chill
in the wake of the front into the first part of the new week

Improved weather should arrive by Tuesday…continuing
through most of the new work week ahead – with the next
possible cold front arriving later Friday into next Saturday

Extra Large to Giant high surf event… north and west shores of
Kauai and Oahu, expanding to Maui County and the Big Island –
starting later today through Sunday…
dangerously high!

High Wind Warning…
Big Island summits – through 6am Monday –
50-70 mph with stronger gusts to near 80

Small Craft Wind Advisory…all coastal and channels waters

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions…as of Saturday evening:

21  Port Allen, Kauai – WNW
20  Kii, Oahu – SW
15  Molokai – WNW
12  Lanai – SW
14  Kahoolawe – SW
23  Kaupo Gap,
Maui – S
25  Waikoloa, Big Island – NW

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Saturday evening (845pm totals):

0.25  Puu Lua, Kauai
1.86  Palehua, Oahu
0.06  Molokai
0.03  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.16  Kaupo Gap, Maui
1.17  Pohakuloa Keamuku, Big Island

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

There will be rather muggy Kona winds blowing ahead of a cold front…pushing down into the state through Sunday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. Here’s a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…centered on the Hawaiian Islands. ~~~ We find low pressure systems far northwest and north of the state, with a cold front trailing to the south…which is migrating down into the state. Meanwhile, we see a high pressure system offshore well to the east-northeast of the state, which continues to move away. Winds will generally be light to moderately strong from the southeast, south and southwest…ahead of this active cold front. Our winds will veer around to the cooler northwest and northerly directions in the wake of the fronts passage, called a fropa in the weather business…gradually becoming more mild mannered trade winds as we move through the new work week ahead.

Satellite imagery shows a large area of showery clouds moving towards the state to the southwest …along with the well advertised cold front that’s moving into the state now too.
Some of the clouds out ahead of the frontal cloud band, are dropping light to moderately heavy showers…called prefrontal shower activity. Here’s the looping radar image, showing showers being drawn up over the central islands on the southwest Kona winds…generally from Kauai and Oahu down through Maui County, with just a few heading towards the Big Island at the time of this writing. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we can see this robust frontal cloud band, those bright whiter clouds, are steadily moving east and southeast, now into our islands, along with those rather threatening looking clouds not far away to our southwest…which appear to be taking aim on our islands. The combination of these moisture sources, are what will dump rain over us through the rest of this weekend.

This cold front is slowly but surely moving into the state from the northwest, and will travel down over Kauai and Oahu…and then likely stall over Maui County and perhaps the Big Island Sunday into Monday. The primary concern with this cold front, especially over Maui County and the Big Island, is the expected slowing pace as it gets into the state. The slower the front, the better chance it has to drop more rainfall on us…which may lead to some localized flooding issues. Weather early in the new week ahead will show a marked improvement, with generally fair conditions…although a bit on the cool side at first. There should be some leftover moisture bringing drizzle or light showers to the windward sides for a few days into the new week as well. The latest forecast models are now suggesting that we’ll see yet another cold front approaching the state, with unsettled weather later next weekend. I’ll be back later this evening with another update, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula, Maui weather tower, the air temperature was 58.1 degrees at 625am on this Saturday morning.
Our skies here on Maui are completely cloudy, with very low bases, and showers falling off in the distance…down in the Central Valley at the moment. Here in Kula it’s not raining, although my weather deck outside is still wet from earlier showers. As I noted above, the cold front is about to arrive over Kauai, and will do so over the next few hours. It will then bring showers to Oahu during the day, as it gradually slows in forward speed. By the way, this frontal cloud band is a wide one, stretching 300+ miles from one side to the other. Here at 7am, there’s a few breaks in the overcast, and I can see some blue patches over parts of the Haleakala Crater.

~~~ The first round of cloudy, foggy, and light showery weather just came through my area. At just around 9am, skies lightened up some, with an air temperature of 63.5 degrees. Looking to the south and west however, it looks like the next wave of moisture is coming my way. I love this kind of day, knowing something, this cold front, is heading in my direction…with rainy onslaughts preceding the main event. This is almost like the trailers I see at the theater, before the actual film starts.

~~~ I just got back from my shopping spree at the health food store in Paia, now at 1245pm. The weather was a little showery when I left here, although I found warm, and partly sunny weather down there. It’s even a little sunny here in Kula at the moment, with a relatively warm 69.3 degrees on my thermometer. Looking at the satellite image up the page, and the radar too, it looks like our weather will remain pretty good, although that doesn’t mean a few showers aren’t going to be coming through. I’m home now through the rest of the weekend, having no plans to go out, so I’m be keeping a very close eye on what’s going on here in the Aloha State. It appears that the leeward side of Oahu is having the most showers at the time of this writing.

~~~ It’s now 305pm on this breezy, cloudy/foggy afternoon here in Kula, with just light drizzle at the moment…with an air temperature of 66 degrees. This is one of the few times that I have my weather tower pretty well shut up, with only two windows open, while the other three are closed tight. The winds are blowing strong enough, which would carry moisture inside, which of course I don’t want that to happen. We can see that this cold front seems to be slowing down before even moving into the state. I’d figured that it would pass steadily over Kauai and Oahu, and then slow down over the eastern islands. As I was mentioning above, the slower this front moves, the more time it will have to rain down on us. At the same time, we have an area of low pressure aloft that’s expected to move over us later today into Sunday, which will enhance whatever showers that are falling. This of course increases the chances of flooding precipitation, we’ll have to wait and see what happens. I’ll keep you abreast of what’s up here in the state throughout this weekend, you can count on that.

~~~ We’re into the early evening hours now, as it’s 530pm here in the islands. There’s been off and on sunshine today, mixed with cloudy periods, and a few light showers. The kind of day that you could be outside without difficulty, and without getting very wet. As I look at the latest looping satellite image, I’m closely eyeballing that large area of tropical moisture down to the southwest of our islands, and then of course we have the cold front now moving very slowly down the island chain as well. Quite honestly, I’m not too sure which of these weather features will bring us the most rainfall.

~~~ It’s late at 1050pm, with cloudy skies, although its not raining here, with an air temperature of 59.7 degrees. This cold front seems to be hung up just to the northwest of Kauai at the moment. I’m quite sure that it will begin to move down through the state, although it’s in a bit of resting mode it seems. Radar is finding light to moderately heavy showers coming towards Kauai, and over parts of Oahu at this time. Maui County and the Big Island remain with little rainfall for the moment. We’ll see what happens during the night, and I’ll catch up with you early Sunday morning.

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Atlantic Ocean:
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a
satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea:

Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Eastern Pacific:
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Central Pacific Ocean:
The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

North Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 03W  remains active in the northwestern Pacific, to the southeast of Guam. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image.

South Pacific Ocean:
Tropical Cyclone 16P (Kofi) remains active in the southwestern Pacific…near Fiji. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image.

North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting:  Melting summer ice in Antarctica –
Antarctica’s Ross Sea is one of the few Polar Regions where summer sea-ice coverage has increased during the last few decades, bucking a global trend of drastic declines in summer sea ice across the Arctic Ocean and in two adjacent embayments of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. But now, a modeling study led by Professor Walker Smith of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science suggests that the Ross Sea’s recent observed increase in summer sea-ice cover is likely short-lived, with the area projected to lose more than half its summer sea ice by 2050 and more than three quarters by 2100.

These changes, says Smith, will significantly impact marine life in what is one of the world’s most productive and unspoiled marine ecosystems, where rich blooms of phytoplankton feed krill, fish, and higher predators such as whales, penguins, and seals.

Smith, who has been conducting ship-based fieldwork in the Ross Sea since the 1980s, collaborated on the study with colleagues at Old Dominion University. Their paper, “The effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of the Ross Sea in the 21st century,” appears in the Feb. 26 issue of Geophysical Research Letters. Smith’s co-authors are Mike Dinniman, Eileen Hofmann, and John Klinck.

Smith says “The Ross Sea is critically important in regulating the production of Antarctica’s sea ice overall and is biologically very productive, which makes changes in its physical environment of global concern. Our study predicts that it will soon reverse its present trend and experience major drops in ice cover in summer, which, along with decreased mixing of the vertical column, will extend the season of phytoplankton growth. These changes will substantially alter the area’s pristine food web.”

Researchers attribute the observed increase in summertime sea ice in the Ross Sea—where the number of days with ice cover has grown by more two months over the past three decades—to a complex interplay of factors, including changes in wind speed, precipitation, salinity, ocean currents, and air and water temperature.

Sea ice covers a large part of the Ross Sea in this summer 2007 photo. A large opening in the ice cover, or polynya, extends to the east. Photo courtesy of NASA. But global climate models agree that air temperatures in Antarctica will increase substantially in the coming decades, with corresponding changes in the speed and direction of winds and ocean currents. When Smith and his colleagues fed these global projections into a high-resolution computer model of air-sea-ice dynamics in the Ross Sea, they saw a drastic reduction in the extent and duration of summer sea ice.