Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday:

77  Lihue, Kauai
79  Honolulu, Oahu
79  Molokai
81  Kahului, Maui
82  Kona, Hawaii
80  Hilo, Hawaii

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 830pm Monday evening:


Kailua Kona – 76
Port Allen, Kauai
– 66

Haleakala Summit –   46
(near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 34 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

The northwest swell will lower a bit today,
with a
very large to giant northwest swell
Wednesday into Thursday…followed by more
big waves into the weekend and beyond!

Generally good weather expected, although with
cloudy periods and a few showers at times…in parts
of the state through this morning – becoming
windy from the south and southwest into

Then, as we get into tonight and Wednesday, an
active cold front will arrive, bringing a quick dose
of heavy showers to most of the state…followed
by relatively cool breezes – and drier weather
Thursday into the weekend

There’s a chance we’ll see another cold front bringing
showers Sunday or next Monday…stay tuned

Gale Warning…over offshore waters around Hawaii

Small Craft Advisory...coastal and channel waters
from Kauai to Maui County – 10am this morning
through 6pm Wednesday

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Monday evening:

12  Puu Opae, Kauai – SSW
13  Kuaokala, Oahu – SSW
12  Molokai – SE
15  Lanai – SW
16  Kahoolawe – SE
12  Hana, Maui – E
20  PTA West, Big Island – NW

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Monday evening (545pm totals):

0.05  Hanalei, Kauai
0.07  Maunawili, Oahu
0.01  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Maui
0.02  Glenwood, Big Island

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Generally light and variable breezes on this Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. This will be followed by gusty south and southwesterly winds later Tuesday…ahead of a strong cold front into Wednesday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. ~~~ We find a weak near 1014 millibar high pressure system near the western end of the Hawaiian island chain. At the same time, we see a deep near 952 millibar storm low pressure system to our northwest, with its associated cold front to our northwest as well. This low has hurricane force winds wrapping around its southwest side…which is generating a very large northwest swell in our direction.

Satellite imagery shows small areas of low clouds over the ocean…with clouds over the interior sections of islands locally.
There are cloudy conditions over some areas, these clouds will drop a few showers, although will evaporate quickly after dark…leading to a generally clear and cool Tuesday morning. Here’s the looping radar image, showing just a few showers falling over the ocean, especially to the southeast of the Big Island. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we can see areas of deep clouds, the brighter white ones, moving by offshore to the east, north…along with a robust cold front advancing quickly in our direction to the northwest. This front will continue moving southeast into our area later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tonight into Tuesday morning will be a transition period between the rather benign weather we’ve seen the last couple of days…and a more dynamic event that will arrive later Tuesday into Wednesday. This will come in the form of a cold front, a well advertised event I might add…that’s expected to be considerably stronger than the last two we’ve seen. This front will be preceded by locally strong and gusty Kona winds during the day Tuesday, and followed by fair weather…with slightly cooler northerly breezes in the wake of its passage later Wednesday into Thursday morning. The front itself will bring a brief period of locally heavy rains, likely reaching down through the entire state by Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the parent storm low pressure system, of this next cold front, will bring a very large high surf event Wednesday and Thursday. This will require great caution when getting near the ocean on our north and west facing shores! Friday into the upcoming weekend, should see warmer weather, with a fairly typical trade wind weather pattern, in other words good weather with light breezes. ~~~ I’ll be back early Tuesday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Atlantic Ocean:
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a
satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea:

Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Eastern Pacific:
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Central Pacific Ocean:
The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Western Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

South Pacific Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans:
There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Researchers have found that natural disasters similar to El Nino are likely to double in the next century.In the journal Nature Climate Change, a group of researchers from around the world including Australia have claimed that extreme El Nino events will occur every 10 years. As opposed to every 20 years like it has been in the previous century. This is due to human activity that continues to warm the planet.

El Nino is a natural climate event that occurs when water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean periodically rise, shifting rainfall patterns.

Researchers have used 20 climate models to help them predict impact on extreme El Nino frequency of global greenhouse emissions continuing at current high rates.

They found that El Nino events are likely to occur twice as often between 1991 and 2090 as they have in the previous century.

El Nino has been defined as an event as such a large pattern shift occurs that rainfall exceeded five millimeters a day in the ”eastern equatorial Pacific” region around parts of Central and South America. It would take weaker changes in ocean temperatures to prompt an extreme El Nino.

These events usually results in higher rainfall in some parts of South America and has the potential to create floods. Meanwhile promoting less rain fall in south-east Asia and Australia creating drought and brush fires.

These extreme El Ninos over the 20th century have costed between $35 to $45 billion and 23,000 deaths world wide.

If global warming is true it has the potential to double these events, as it changes the temperature in the ocean creating these climate changes.

Until recently, it was thought that the weather phenomenon, characterized by warming in the eastern and tropical Pacific Ocean, would be relatively unaffected by climate change. This new study has been brought to our attention, now we fear we may see a lot more natural disasters in the future.