Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday:

82  Lihue, Kauai
81  Honolulu, Oahu
78  Molokai
83  Kahului, Maui
84  Kona, Hawaii
83  Hilo, Hawaii


Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 843pm Thursday evening:

 

Kailua Kona – 77
Lihue, Kauai – 71


Haleakala Summit –   39 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 32 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)


Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

 


Aloha Paragraphs

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Winds increasing from the south to southwest ahead of an
approaching cold front into Friday

This cold front is prompting pre-frontal showers…especially
over Kauai and Oahu, followed by the front’s showers tonight
into Friday night across the rest of the state, some will be
locally heavy – cooler weather arriving in the wake of the
fronts passage.

>The extended forecast calls for showers to fall, possibly very
heavy with flooding over the Big Island side of the chain late
Sunday into early next week…stay tuned.

>Looking even further ahead, there’s a chance that we could see
a heavy duty Kona Storm setting up shop to the west of the state
later next week, these are infamous for bringing very strong
winds and rainy weather to our islands…stay tuned.

Small Craft Wind Advisory…Kauai, Oahu, and Maui County
coastal and channel waters – through 6pm Friday

Real time wind profile, centered on Hawaii…showing the
south to southwest Kona winds – and the parent low
pressure system, rotating in a counter-clockwise
fashion to the north of Hawai, with its cold front…
near Kauai heading towards Oahu





The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Thursday evening:

30  Lihue, Kauai – S
30  Kuaokala, Oahu – SW
32  Molokai – SW
32  Lanai – SW
23  Kahoolawe – SW
27  Kaupo Gap, Maui – SSE
27  Kaupulehu, Big Island – SSE


Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening:

1.36  Waialae, Kauai
0.54  Waihee Pump, Oahu
0.70  Molokai
0.15  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.24  Kaupo Gap, Maui
0.75  Kealakomo – Big Island


We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds will become stronger from the south to southwest into Friday…ahead of a cold front. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the Pacific Ocean. ~~~ We find high pressure systems far to the northeast of the state. At the same time, we see a  storm low pressure system, with hurricane force winds well to our north, with its associated cold front, soon to be moving into our island chain. ~~~ The winds will come in from the south and southwest Friday, becoming locally strong and gusty…especially as it gets in close to, and into the Aloha State. 

The south and southwesterly winds, called Kona winds, will bring showers our way…at least locally. Satellite imagery shows clouds over and around the islands…especially just over Kauai and Oahu at the time of this writing.  These clouds are being carried our way…with off and on showers. These showers, called pre-frontal showers, will arrive before the actual cold front arrives this evening over Kauai. These showers will make their way down to Oahu tonight, Maui County Friday, reaching the Big Island Friday night…if it doesn’t stall before arriving. Here’s the looping radar image, showing these showers  over the ocean streaming over Kauai, Oahu, parts of Maui County at the time of this writing.  Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we can see the quickly approaching cold front to the northwest of Kauai, and the showery clouds being drawn up from the deeper tropics…moving over us now too.

A quick moving (20 mph), and rather vigorous cold front will bring widespread rains to the Hawaiian Islands…with cooler weather (tropically speaking) following in its wake. As we’re now into this second half of the week, this cold front will interrupt our recent generally fair weather conditions. It will bring strong and gusty Kona winds (south to southwest) ahead of it, along with pre-frontal showers…mainly affecting our leeward sides of the islands. The cold front itself will arrive later on Kauai, and work its way down through the island chain through Friday night…then perhaps stalling near the Big Island perhaps Friday night or Saturday morning. The frontal band itself will bring more widespread precipitation to most of the state…followed by relatively cool weather conditions in its wake into the weekend.

The models are pointing out something that sounds rather threatening, which is the chance that copious rainfall may arrive late Sunday into early next week. The moisture left over from the cold front could interact with the arrival of a cold pool of air aloft, called an upper level low. If these weather features combine forces in just the right way, and that’s still a question at this point, it could produce large amounts of rain…especially for the Big Island and potentially Maui County.  At that time, the trade winds should have returned, so likely the better part of this potentially heavy rainfall would end up on our windward sides. We could see lots of thunderstorm activity at that time too, which would be very unusual. The cold air aloft would likely bring lots of snow to the summits on the Big Island as well. Stay tuned on this prospect, it may change, but then again…it might not. If the models stick to their guns on this longer range forecast, there could be a major flooding event in the offing for the Big Island…which certainly doesn’t need it! I will be monitoring this situation very closely, although first we need to address the current cold front’s arrival and passage through our state through Friday. ~~~ I’ll be back early Friday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you happen to be spending it.  I should also add, if you’re out driving on wet roads, be very careful, as it will be slippery and locally challenging. Aloha for now…Glenn.



World-wide tropical cyclone activity:


Atlantic Ocean: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary


Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea:

Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Eastern Pacific: The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.


Central Pacific Ocean: The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


Western Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


North and South Indian Oceans: Tropical Cyclone 06S (Bejisa) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a NOAA satellite image.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting:  New analysis of 28-years of satellite imagery has shown that mangrove forests have been expanding northward along the Atlantic coast of Florida for the last few decades. While one might assume that this may be occurring because of a general warming trend, researchers are claiming that this northern expansion is likely because cold snaps there are becoming a thing of the past.


Study lead author Kyle Cavanaugh, a postdoctoral researcher at Brown University and at the Smithsonian Institution states: “One unique aspect of this work is that we were able to use this incredible time series of large-scale satellite imagery to show that this expansion is a regional phenomenon. It’s a very large-scale change.”


Cavanaugh and his colleagues tested various hypotheses by correlating the satellite observations with reams of other data. What emerged from their tests of statistical significance was the area’s decline in the frequency of days where temperature dips below minus 4 C (25 F). That, not coincidentally, is a physiological temperature limit of mangrove survival.


For the analysis, the research team had to rule out increases in mean annual or winter temperatures as well as changes in precipitation and changes in nearby urban and agricultural landcover. They also ruled out sea level rise.


Instead seemingly subtle differences from 1984 through 2011 of just 1.4 fewer days a year below 25 F in Daytona Beach or 1.2 days a year in Titusville appear to explain as much as a doubling of mangrove habitat in those areas.


As a result of the mangroves’ northern expansion, Cavanaugh says, “The mangroves are expanding into and invading salt marsh, which also provides an important habitat for a variety of species.”


The next question is to understand how these changes affect the lives and interactions of the species in each ecosystem.


The findings are published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.