Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday:

85  Lihue, Kauai
85  Honolulu, Oahu
85  Molokai
88  Kahului, Maui
88  Kona, Hawaii
86  Hilo, Hawaii


Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 1010pm Friday evening:


Kailua Kona – 79
Hana airport, Maui – 73


Haleakala Summit –    M (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 39 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)


Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions. Here’s the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui – if it’s working.

 


Aloha Paragraphs



http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5141/5553280514_07244a7bf8_z.jpg

Our local trade winds will finally pick up some
after the weekend

Increasing windward showers into Saturday…
fairly minor in most areas, a few heavy




The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Friday evening:

24  Port Allen, Kauai – SE
29  Kuaokala, Oahu – N
21  Molokai – NNE
33  Lanai – NE
24  Kahoolawe – ENE
21  Kapalua, Maui – NE
29  PTA Keamuku, Big Island – NNE


Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Friday evening:

0.01  Lihue, Kauai
0.14  Makaha Stream, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Lanai
0.12  Haiku, Maui
0.17  Island Dairy, Big Island


We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The winds will be lighter than normal through the weekend…although with the trade winds gradually strengthening on Monday. Here’s a weather chart showing a near 1018 millibar high pressure system located to the west, and another near 1028 millibar high pressure cell far northeast of the islands. At the same time, we find an early season cold front approaching the state towards the northwest. This front won’t get down into the islands, although is weakening our high pressure ridge to the north, keeping the trade winds from returning for the time being. We’ll find light trades, along with daytime sea breezes prevailing through Sunday. The forecast calls for recovering trade winds after the weekend for many days.

Windward showers increasing tonight into the weekend, although nothing too pronounced in most areas. Satellite imagery shows an area of low level clouds over the ocean upwind of the islands…the largest of which is positioned just east of Maui and the Big Island at the time of this writing. Here’s the looping radar image, showing just a few showers over the islands…mostly over the ocean heading into the windward sides of the eastern islands at the time of this writing. Arriving later today into Saturday, we’ll see an increase in these clouds and showers along our windward sides. The approaching area of clouds, that will be responsible for these upcoming showers, is viewable over the ocean east of the Big Island and Maui…using this looping satellite image.


Reflections from Maui: Here on Maui, as we move into the evening hours, skies were quite cloudy, with a rather impressive increase especially along our windward coasts and slopes.  The air temperature at my place here in Kula at 5pm was 78.3F degrees, under partly cloudy skies. Meanwhile, down at the airport in Kahului, it was becoming cloudier at about the same time, with a warmer 85 degrees.  As the winds are still on the soft side, and will remain that way through most of the weekend, I’ll be looking for more afternoon clouds in the interior sections both Saturday and Sunday…with a few light showers here and there. That slug of moisture out to our east, should bring showers along our windward sides into the weekend as well.  I’ll be back early Saturday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Friday evening film: I’m going to see one that really has me looking forward to! It’s called The Grandmaster, starring Tony Leung, Zhang Ziyi, Zhang Jin, among many others. The synopsis:  The Grandmaster is an epic action feature inspired by the life and times of the legendary kung fu master, Ip Man. The story spans the tumultuous Republican era that followed the fall of China’s last dynasty, a time of chaos, division and war, that was also the golden age of Chinese martial arts. Filmed in a range of stunning locations that include the snow-swept landscapes of Northeast China and the subtropical South, The Grandmaster features virtuoso performances by some of the greatest stars of contemporary Asian cinema, including Tony Leung and Ziyi Zhang. The critics are giving it a strong 75% rating, while the viewers are providing a somewhat softer 64%. Some are saying that this film ranks up there with Crouching Tiger-Hidden Dragon, Hero, and House of Flying Daggers…as one of the most elegant and beautiful martial-arts films to play on American screens. I’ll be sure to let you know what I thought, and I’ll have a few folks with me, that I’ll canvas for opinions right after the film too. Here’s a trailer for this action film, it’s pretty interesting…although there’s quite a bit of fighting going on too.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:


Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones




DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AN



Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones







Gulf of Mexico: Tropical depression 08L is now active over the east coast of Mexico. Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this system.



Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.



Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)



Eastern Pacific: Tropical depression 12E (Lorena) remains active in the northeast Pacific. Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this system.


 


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.



Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


 


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)



Western Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones 





South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


 


North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones



Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)









Interesting: Hawaii Coastlines on Track to Lose 100 Feet of Beach – Hawaii is known for it’s pristine beaches and it’s 750 miles of coastline. However with looming sea water rise due to melting ice caps and climate change, a new study by the University of Hawaii shows the state is on pace to lose 100 feet of beach in the coming decades.



According to the study, Maui beaches are most at risk as the sea-level rise is approximately 65% higher compared to the island of Oahu.



While many beaches have been faced with erosion for years, predictions show that beaches will start to disappear even faster.



Researchers with the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) studied 100 years of data for both Maui and Oahu. They found global warming is causing the sea level to rise which in turn is causing beaches to erode. In the next 25 to 30 years the prediction is Hawaii shores could lose 100 feet of beach.



Island-wide and regional historical shoreline trends were calculated for the islands using shoreline positions measured from aerial photographs and survey charts. Shoreline positions were manually digitized using photogrammetric and geographic information system (GIS) software from aerial photo mosaics and topographic and hydrographic survey charts provided by the National Ocean Service (NOS).



“A hundred feet of shoreline erosion around Hawaii takes us into homes and communities and highways so this is a coming problem that has already started and it’s going to become magnified within the next decade or two,” said Charles Fletcher, PhD. SOEST Associate Dean.



In places like Kailua and Waikiki sand has been added which is good but not a permanent fix.



“We patch potholes in our roads, it’s not a permanent solution but it gets you through the next couple of years. It makes the roads usable,” said Prof. Fletcher. “Putting sand on the beach is a form of environmental maintenance.”



Not only is sea level rising around Maui and the Big Island, but the islands are also sinking because the volcanoes there are relatively new and haven’t fully settled.



Managing coastal erosion is a daunting task. Not only does it take hundreds of man hours to create temporary solutions, but it can cost hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars. In order to combat these issues, planning needs to occur.



The authors of the study hope to show that sea level rise is a primary cause of shoreline change on a regional scale. They also hope to encourage managers and other coastal zone decision-makers to focus on these impacts in their own research programs and long-term planning.