Hawaiian Islands weather islands & Aloha paragraphs / October 18-19, 2010

October 18-19, 2010

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday afternoon:

Lihue airport, Kauai –  84
Honolulu airport, Oahu –  85
Kaneohe MCAS, Oahu –  84
Molokai airport – 86
Kahului airport, Maui – 88
Ke-ahole airport (Kona) –   84
Hilo airport, Hawaii –   82

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Monday evening:

Barking Sands, Kauai – 82F
Molokai airport – 78 

Haleakala Crater –    46 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 32 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Monday afternoon: 

0.23 Mount Waialeale, Kauai  
0.12 Luluku, Oahu
0.00 Molokai 
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.05 Ulupalakua, Maui
0.30 Laupahoehoe, Big Island

Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing high pressure systems to the far northwest, and east-northeast of our islands. At the same time, a cold front is pushing a ridge down closer to the islands. Our local winds will remain on the light side Tuesday and Wednesday.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here. Of course, as we know, our hurricane season won't end until November 31st here in the central Pacific.

 Aloha Paragraphs

Generally good weather through mid-week
 

Our local winds will remain quite light through mid-week.  In addition to our air flow being softer, there will be daytime sea breezes in those more sheltered leeward areas too. This weather map shows high pressure systems far to the northwest, and also east-northeast Monday night…along with an approaching cold front to our north. As we move into later Wednesday or Thursday…our trade winds will start to fill back into the islands, lasting through the rest of the week.

What few showers that are around now will be spread out between the windward sides, and the upcountry leeward slopes. There may be a few generous down pours popping-up here and there. As we can see from glancing at this satellite image, there are a few patches of lower level clouds in our vicinity Monday night. At the same time we see areas of high cirrus clouds to our southwest. We'll perhaps see some intrusion of high clouds, which could bring back those nice colors at sunrise and sunsets over the next few days. Glancing down further to the southeast, there’s a substantial area of thunderstorms…using this larger view of the central Pacific.

 It's Monday as I begin writing this last section of this evening's narrative update. As pointed out above, as this new work week unfolds, we’ll find a few weather changes occurring, especially considering the well advertised lighter winds. If the winds get as light as expected through mid-week, we'll definitely grade into a convective weather pattern. This typically manifests as clear, slightly cool mornings…giving way to afternoon clouds forming around the mountains. Again, there’s that chance of some showers, a few of which could give a good soaking. Often, the beaches remain mostly sunny and pleasant during the days. We should see this form of weather pattern through Wednesday into Thursday. As the trade winds return later Thursday, whatever showers that are around then, will migrate back more exclusively towards the windward sides.

~~~ Here in Kihei, Maui, before I take the drive back upcountry, its generally clear. As that satellite image just up the page shows, there's a dynamic area of thunderstorms to the southeast of the Big Island. This will likely stay down that way, although deserves to be watched for the time being. I'll be back early Tuesday morning with your next new weather narrative. Don't forget that I leave for vacation on Thursday, although all the daily updated forecasts for each of the islands, will remain available. Aloha for now…Glenn. 

Interesting: The Philippines declared a state of calamity in a northern province after super typhoon Megi made landfall on Monday, cutting off power, forcing flight cancellations and putting the region's rice crop at risk. Megi, the 10th and strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines this year, hit Isabela province at 11:25 a.m. (0325 GMT) and was heading west-southwest across the north of the main island of Luzon with winds of 117 mph near the center, forecasters said.

Tropical Storm Risk said Megi, known locally as Juan, was a category 5 super typhoon, the highest rating, with winds of more than 155 mph.

The weather bureau said the typhoon had weakened and slowed down after it slammed into mountains in northwest Luzon late in the morning. Lieutenant-General Gaudencio Pangilinan, head of the military in northern Luzon, said the typhoon's fury was felt in Cagayan and Isabela provinces, where trees were uprooted and roofs of houses blown away.

"There's almost zero visibility in some areas due to heavy rain and strong wind," Pangilinan told Reuters by phone. "We expect extensive damage on property and agriculture. We're still validating reports from the field." The typhoon is expected to clear Luzon island on Monday night, and head across the South China Sea toward China and possibly Vietnam, which is already suffering from floods.

Interesting2: While it's still hotly debated among scientists whether climate change causes a shift from the traditional form of El Nino to one known as El Nino Modoki, scientists now say that El Nino Modoki affects long-term changes in currents in the North Pacific Ocean. The research is published online in the journal Nature Geoscience.

El Nino is a periodic warming in the eastern tropical Pacific that occurs along the coast of South America. Recently, scientists have noticed that El Nino warming is stronger in the Central Pacific rather than the Eastern Pacific, a phenomenon known as El Nino Modoki (Modoki is a Japanese term for "similar, but different").

Last year, the journal Nature published a paper that found climate change is behind this shift from El Nino to El Nino Modoki. While the findings of that paper are still being debated, this latest paper in Nature Geoscience presents evidence that El Nino Modoki drives a climate pattern known as the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO).

"We've found that El Nino Modoki is responsible for changes in the NPGO,"said Emanuele Di Lorenzo, associate professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. "The reason this is important is because the NPGO has significant effects on fish stocks and ocean nutrient distributions in the Pacific, especially along the west coast of the United States."

The NPGO, first named two years ago by Di Lorenzo and colleagues in a paper in Geophysical Research Letters, explained for the first time long-term changes in ocean circulation of the North Pacific, which scientists now link to an increasing number of dramatic transitions in coastal marine ecosystems.

"The ecosystems of the Pacific may very well become more sensitive to the NPGO in the future," said Di Lorenzo. "Our data show that this NPGO is definitively linked to El Nino Modoki, so as Modoki becomes more frequent in the central tropical Pacific, the NPGO will also intensify."

Interesting3: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) today reopened to commercial and recreational fishing 6,879 square miles of Gulf waters about 180-200 nautical miles south of the Florida panhandle, between the Florida-Alabama state line and Cape San Blas, Florida. This is the ninth reopening in federal waters since July 22. This is all good news but it does not mean that there was no impact or the impact is over.

The total area reopened today is about 3 percent of the federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico and 29 percent of the current closed area, as last modified on October 5. No oil or sheen has been documented in the area since July 13. At its closest point, the area to be reopened is about 110 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon BP wellhead.

NOAA sampled this area between August 7 through September 18 for finfish, including tuna, swordfish, and mahi mahi. NOAA will continue to take samples for testing from the newly reopened area. The agency will also continue dockside sampling to test fish caught throughout the Gulf by commercial fishermen. The remaining closed area now covers 16,481 square miles, or about 7 percent of the federal waters in the Gulf.

The boundary of the fishery closure has changed 30 times after it was first instituted on May 2, at which time it covered about 3 percent (6,817 square miles) of Gulf waters around the wellhead. As oil continued to spill from the wellhead, the area grew in size, peaking at 37 percent (88,522 square miles) of Gulf waters on June 2. To date, NOAA has reopened more than 67,000 square miles of oil-impacted federal waters under this protocol and sampling regime. So the area allowed to be fished has expanded.

However, juvenile Atlantic tuna at a major spawning site in the Gulf of Mexico probably fell by at least a fifth this year as a result of the BP oil spill, the European Space Agency (ESA) said on October 18. The Atlantic tuna is a valuable commercial species that is already in an alarming decline, especially in the western part of the ocean, where stocks have plummeted by 82 percent over the last 30 years. Western Atlantic tuna migrate to the Gulf from January to June each year to reproduce, spawning in two important sites in April and May.

In one of sites in the northeast, the number of bluefin fry fell by more than 20 percent as the suspected result of surface oil that was tracked by radar from the Earth-sensing satellite Envisat. The fish were especially vulnerable as they spawn in surface waters, which means the floating oil could harm eggs, larvae and even adult tuna, the agency said.

Samples taken from the seafloor near BP's blown-out wellhead indicate miles of murky, oily residue sitting atop hard sediment with a report issued in mid-September. Moreover, inside that residue are dead shrimp, zooplankton, worms and other invertebrates. This may be the murky residue from the original oil release. So it is getting better but long term effects are still to be evaluated.

Interesting4: The Department of Interior is planning to assess Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve for energy development. Spanning 37,000 square miles across western Alaska, the NPR-A is the biggest piece of public land in the United States. For now, this Arctic landscape is mostly undeveloped and home to caribou, grizzly bears, wolves, and a wide variety of birds, among other northern wildlife.

Sending public comments to the Bureau of Land Management, WCS has asked the government to permanently protect certain places within the NPR-A that are vital to wildlife. WCS also urged the BLM to form a scientific advisory panel for evaluating how to manage the land in the face of energy development and climate change.

"Western Arctic Alaska has the largest wetland complex in the entire polar world, hosting a truly international assemblage of migratory birds that come to breed in huge numbers," said Dr.Steve Zack, a scientist who has led WCS studies of Arctic wildlife for the past decade. "We feel that there is room for balancing wildlife protection with energy development in this landscape rich in many resources, including wildlife.

By protecting the existing Special Areas from all future development, that balance can be achieved and wildlife conservation secured." Permanent "no lease" provisions for the Teshekpuk Lake, Utukok River Uplands, and Colville River Special Areas would offer protection for some of the world's last great wildlife spectacles.

Teshekpuk Lake surrounds caribou calving grounds and wetland habitat that draw waterfowl, shorebirds, songbirds, and loons from across the globe. The Utukok River Uplands shelter wolves, bears, wolverines, and the calving grounds of Alaska’s largest caribou herd. And the Colville River protects the Arctic’s biggest populations of breeding birds of prey, including gyrfalcon, prairie falcon, and golden eagles.

Over the summer, WCS CEO Dr. Steven Sanderson, Zack and other WCS scientists traveled up the Utukok River to determine which scientific studies were needed to inform our government of policies that could balance development and wildlife protection in the area. (Read a daily blog of their expedition.) In the past, WCS collaborative studies have shown how oil development can affect wildlife indirectly by

Interesting5: If it were ever possible or even realistic to put the words Appalachia and victory in the same sentence, this might be one of those rare times: the Environmental Protection Agency's Region 3 Administrator Shawn Garvin has recommended the withdrawal of the mining permit for the nation's largest proposed mountaintop removal coal mine site, the Spruce No. 1 Mine in Logan County, West Virginia. If Garvin's decision, released in an 84-page report on Friday, becomes the final EPA say about Spruce No. 1, the mine's owner, Arch Coal, will be barred from disposing mining waste in the state's streams.

This will effectively block operation of the mine. A year ago the EPA determined that Spruce No. 1 "raised significant environmental and water quality concerns" and halted further action on the company's Clean Water permit process. A subsequent legal maneuver appeared to set the stage for EPA and Arch to work out their differences regarding Spruce No. 1 and for EPA to determine if a revised mining plan could be developed that would comply with the Clean Water Act.

But Garvin's report said the mine should be halted because "mitigation is not likely to offset anticipated impacts." If allowed to proceed, Spruce No.1 would clear more than 2,200 acres of forest, bury more than seven miles of headwater streams, and contaminate the downstream water supply. In mountaintop coal removal, the tops of mountains are literally blasted away to get at the coal seams.