June 7-8, 2010


Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday afternoon:

Lihue, Kauai – 83
Honolulu, Oahu – 86
Kaneohe, Oahu – 82
Kaunakakai, Molokai – 84
Kahului, Maui – 87
Hilo, Hawaii – 85
Kailua-kona – 82

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level around the state – and on the highest mountains…at 5pm Monday evening:

Barking Sands, Kauai – 85F
Hilo, Hawaii – 77

Haleakala Crater –    66 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 46 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Monday afternoon:

0.80 Mount Waialaele, Kauai  
0.40 Manoa Valley, Oahu
0.00 Molokai 
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.07 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.07 Kealakekua, Big Island

Marine WindsHere’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a long ridge of high pressure to the north of our islands…extending out of a far away 1028 millibar high to the northeast. The trade wind flow will be strengthening Tuesday into Wednesday.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here’s a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the
National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here. Of course, as we know, our hurricane season won’t begin again until June 1st here in the central Pacific.

 Aloha Paragraphs

http://www.artkauai.com/Along%20the%20Napali%208%20x%2010.jpg
Windward Kauai…Pierre Bouret

 

The trade winds have remained active through the last week, and are forecast to remain so through this week…right on into next week. Wind speeds have qualified for the light to moderately strong classification of late, although are forecast to bump up a notch Tuesday. As we glance at this weather map, we spot a 1028 millibar high pressure system far to our northeast, offshore from the California/Oregon border…moving northward towards the Gulf of Alaska. This departing high pressure cell has an elongated ridge extending south and then westward, running by our islands to the north. The models suggest that by this weekend into early next week, our local trade winds will be easing up again some. June is a month typically filled with trade winds, which blow on average 91% of the time.



As we know, our weather has been dry, exceptionally dry this spring. Our winter rainy season wasn’t very productive at all, which helped set the stage for the extreme drought conditions we find now. The few showers that we’ve found lately, as usual, have fallen along the windward coasts and slopes. The next few days are expected to see some increase in showers, again most often along those north and east facing areas. The reason for this possible increase is that an upper level trough of low pressure is edging in our direction from the east. Since it’s migrating towards the west, the Big Island is expected to find the first sign of showers. As this IR satellite image shows, we see the leading edge of those showers right on the Big Island’s front porch now. Although, by shifting over to this looping radar image, there aren’t many showers falling just yet. This large view shows some middle level clouds moving towards the islands too, as this upper trough, with its colder air aloft pushes into the state. This precipitation isn’t expected to be enough to influence our drought situation all that much, although every drop helps at this point. As the trade winds ramp up over the next few days, the trade winds may be strong enough to carry a few of these windward biased showers over into the leeward sides.

It’s Monday evening as I begin writing the last section of today’s narrative. The trade winds will be strong enough soon, that the NWS forecast office has issued a small craft wind advisory in the southern part of the island chain, in anticipation.  As that satellite image above shows, we have showers heading into the Big Island and then Maui, along with some middle level clouds too. Despite all the mention of strong winds, and increased showers, many areas of the island chain will remain quite nice. ~~~ Wednesday I will be taking off for a week long visit to see my family in Long Beach, California. I’ll fly back to Maui the following Wednesday. I look forward to seeing my Mom and Dad, and my sisters and brother too. ~~~ Here in Kihei, Maui early this evening, its mostly clear, especially over the Wailea beaches. The winds are up, and becoming gusty, which should get even more so Tuesday. I’m looking forward to taking the drive back upcountry, and getting home to Kula. I can hardly wait to get out for my evening walk, which always feels so good, after sitting at a desk all day. I’ll have your next new weather narrative available here come early Tuesday morning, have a great Monday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.





Interesting: The mystery of how the world’s largest living reptile — the estuarine crocodile — has come to occupy so many South Pacific islands separated by huge stretches of ocean despite being a poor swimmer has at last been solved by a group of Australian ecologists. Publishing their new study in the British Ecological Society’s Journal of Animal Ecology, they say that like a surfer catching a wave, the crocodiles ride ocean currents to cross large areas of open sea.

The estuarine crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) is a semi-aquatic reptile, living mainly in rivers, mangroves and estuaries. Its geographical range extends over 10,000 km2 of the South-East Pacific, from East India to Fiji and from southern China to North Australia. Although it spends most of its life in salt-water, it cannot be considered a marine reptile in the same way as a turtle is, for example, because it relies on land for food and water.

Many anecdotal accounts exist of large crocodiles being sighted far out to sea, but this is the first study to show — using underwater acoustic tags and satellite tracking — that estuarine crocodiles ride surface currents during long-distance travel, which would enable them to voyage from one oceanic island and another.

The results explain why, despite occupying such a large range, species diversification of the estuarine crocodile has not occurred. Working in the remote Kennedy River in North Queensland, Australia, Dr Hamish Campbell from University of Queensland and colleagues from Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service and Australia Zoo tagged 27 adult estuarine crocodiles with sonar transmitters and used underwater receivers to track their every move over 12 months.

During that time they recorded 1.2 million data packets and found that both male and female adult crocodiles undertook long-distance journeys, regularly travelling more than 50km from their home area to the river mouth and beyond into open sea. The data showed that crocodiles always began long-distance travel within an hour of the tide changing, allowing them to go with the flow, and that they halted their journeys by hauling out on to the river bank when the tide turned against them.

The team — which included the late Steve Irwin ("The Crocodile Hunter") — also re-analyzed archival data from the few crocodiles that have been satellite tracked whilst undertaking ocean travel. By overlaying the crocodiles’ movements with surface current estimates they found that ocean swimming crocodiles showed a similar behavioral strategy when at sea.

One satellite-tagged crocodile — a 3.84 meter-long male — left the Kennedy River and travelled 590 km over 25 days down the west coast of Cape York Peninsula timing its journey to coincide with a seasonal current system that develops in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

A second crocodile — a 4.84 meter-long male — travelled more than 411 km in only 20 days from the east coast of Cape York Peninsula through the Torres Straits to the Wenlock River on the west coast of Cape York.

The Torres Straits are notorious for strong water currents, and when the crocodile arrived the currents were moving opposite to its direction of travel. It waited in a sheltered bay for four days and only passed through the Straits when the currents switched to favor its journey.

According to Dr Campbell: "The estuarine crocodile occurs as island populations throughout the Indian and Pacific ocean, and because they are the only species of salt-water living crocodile to exist across this vast area, regular mixing between the island populations probably occurs.

"Because these crocodiles are poor swimmers, it is unlikely that they swim across vast tracts of ocean. But they can survive for long periods in salt-water without eating or drinking, so by only travelling when surface currents are favorable, they would be able to move long distances by sea.

This not only helps to explains how estuarine crocodiles move between oceanic islands, but also contributes to the theory that crocodilians have crossed major marine barriers during their evolutionary past."

Interesting2: The oil crisis in the Gulf of Mexico has steadily taken its toll on the waters of the gulf and surrounding coastlines. However, the prevailing currents will not allow the oil to be stationary. The Loop Current, which is a clockwise current in the Gulf that originates from Caribbean waters that flow north along the Yucatan, around the Gulf, and out to the Atlantic, will bring the oil around the southern tip of Florida.

Then, the stronger Gulf Stream current will take it along the eastern seaboard and deep into the North Atlantic by as early as mid-July. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) constructed a detailed computer model which outlines the possible trajectory of oil from the moment of the Deepwater Horizon rig sinking to late August.

The model is not meant to be a forecast, but merely a possible scenario for the oil dispersal. The NCAR project was funded by the National Science Foundation and was managed by the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research. The results of the research show the scope of the problem to be much vaster than many predicted.

"I’ve had a lot of people ask me, ‘Will the oil reach Florida?’" says NCAR scientist Synte Peacock, who worked on the study. "Actually, our best knowledge says the scope of this environmental disaster is likely to reach far beyond Florida, with impacts that have yet to be understood."

The computer modeling used is analogous to dropping virtual dye into the water and watching its pathway. However, the virtual dye does not have the same characteristics of oil. It has the same weight and density as water, does not coagulate, and cannot be broken down by bacteria or other forces.

This is why the research team emphasized that this model is not a true forecast, just a possible scenario. On the other hand, the prediction of the range of the oil dispersal is more confident because the existing ocean currents are well understood. The timing for the model relies greatly on the configuration of the Loop Current as well as the overlying atmosphere which determines the wind intensity.

Once the Loop Current brings the oil around Florida, the Gulf Stream will pick it up and spread the oil throughout the North Atlantic. The reason the oil has not moved much in the one and a half months since the spill began is because it occurred in a stagnant area of the Gulf.

However, the model predicts that the dispersal speed will increase to 40 miles per day in the Loop Current. The Gulf Stream Current will carry it at 100 miles per day. Studies of what will happen to the oil once it is in the Atlantic are under way, such as whether or not it will affect the shores of Europe.

According to Martin Visbeck, member of the research team, the oil should biodegrade and be dispersed enough through lateral mixing, that its levels should be reduced below harmful concentrations along European beaches. Concentrations of oil in the Gulf Stream, particularly the further north it goes, should be much less than that found currently in the Gulf of Mexico.