The latest update to this website was at 525am Tuesday (HST)

 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday morning:

0.53  Puu Lua, Kauai
0.25  Punaluu Stream, Oahu
0.11  Molokai 1, Molokai
0.09  Lanai 1, Lanai
0.07  Kula 1, Maui
0.34  Kaiholena, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Tuesday morning:

23  Lihue, Kauai
18  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
15  Makapulapai, Molokai
22  Lanai 1, Lanai
17  Mamane Pl, Maui
27  Kawaihae Rd, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

Thunderstorms south and northeast…low pressure systems with their associated troughs and cold fronts northeast through northwest 

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

High clouds moving by just south of the state

 

 

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https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

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Showers locally 

 

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Tuesday comments:  I’m home here in upper Kula, Maui, Hawaii.

It’s mostly clear here in Maui County early this morning. The low temperature at my place was 53.5 degrees…with a relative humidity of 69%.

Weather Wit of the day: Air Quality Sampler – Scentermeter

Interesting Blog…Mauka Showers – Wrapping Up Dry Season 2025, And Look, La Niña is Here!

>>> Highest Temperature Monday, October 13, 2025 – 98 at Castolon, Texas
>>> Lowest Temperature Tuesday, October 14, 2025 – 16 near Swan Lake, Montana

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview: An upper level low pressure system continues to slip south towards the Hawaiian Islands. This unstable system will combine forces with low level cloud bands, and produce extended periods of wet weather across the islands Wednesday into the weekend.

Moderate to breezy trade winds during this time period will help to lift showers up over windward island mountains, where the highest rainfall amounts are expected. Showers will likely become locally heavy in terrain favored locations, with potential for thunderstorm activity Wednesday night through Friday afternoon.

Forecast projections for the upcoming weekend show the unstable upper low drifting westward away from the state, with improving weather trends in the forecast.

Hawaii’s Weather Details: The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a low pressure system with two embedded low centers roughly 300 to 500 miles north of the Hawaiian Islands. Looking into the infrared satellite channel we see an area of numerous thunderstorms continues to fire surrounding the northern-most low center. This unstable cold core upper low will continue to drift south towards the islands over the next two days.

Roughly 500 miles east of the Big Island a long, unsettled cloud band is riding towards the islands on the easterly trade winds. This cloud band is the convergent remnants of an old Eastern Pacific cold front. Based on the latest short range forecast model guidance, the upper low and remnant low level convergent cloud band will combine forces, bringing periods of wet weather to the entire island chain from Wednesday night through Friday.

The short range forecast calls for increasing shower trends, as the unstable upper low approaches the islands from the north. Currently only a few bands of showers are moving through the islands in a hybrid light to moderate easterly trade wind, and leeward land and sea breeze pattern. Morning upper air balloon soundings from Hilo and Lihue show subsidence temperature inversion heights in the 7,000 to 9,000 foot range respectively.

Although the Lihue sounding is likely elevated a bit due to a passing shower band at the time of observation. The large scale downward motions (subsidence) will weaken as the low center drifts into a position near Kauai and Oahu by Wednesday afternoon, lifting the subsidence temperature inversion in the process.

By Wednesday morning expect inversion heights around the 8,000 foot level or higher across the state, leading to periods of increasing wet weather. At this point, much will depend upon how the smaller scale (mesoscale) weather pattern interacts with the larger upper low. Low level convergence bands and trade winds lifting clouds up over windward island mountains, will be the primary drivers for any locally heavy rainfall.

While any location may see periods of locally heavy rain, windward areas and mountains will be favored especially near the upper low center, or under any developing thunderstorms. Storm total rainfall estimates for this entire two to three day event may exceed 2 inches in terrain favored locations.

For the moment it remains too early to pin down any islands for flooding, however a Flood Watch may be needed at some point as this event unfolds. Any flooding potential may tend to favor the western half of the state, as these islands will be closer to the unstable upper low center.

Thunderstorm activity will favor the western half of the state including the islands of Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu from Wednesday night through Friday. The Big Island may also see isolated thunderstorms from late Thursday morning to early evening, as the low level convergent band drifts across that island.

Starting Friday night to Saturday, we begin to see another change in the weather, with decreasing shower trends as the upper low begins to drift westward away from the Hawaiian Islands. Expect decreasing showers this weekend in a moderate to locally breezy easterly trade wind pattern, with some lingering passing showers favoring the windward and mountain areas during the overnight to early morning hours.

Long range weather models are hinting at yet another unstable upper low drifting towards the Hawaiian Islands early next week, potentially triggering yet another round of wet weather across the island chain. Stay tuned.

Fire weather:  Wind speeds and afternoon minimum humidity levels will likely remain below critical fire weather thresholds this week. Unstable conditions will produce increasing wet weather trends across the state from Wednesday through Friday. Locally heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible during this time period. Temperature inversion heights near Maui and the Big Island will range from the 6,000 to 7,000 feet elevation range today.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment: A trough north of the state will continue to disrupt trades, supporting gentle to fresh easterly winds prevailing across the coastal waters. This trough is forecast to fade, while high pressure builds far to the northeast. As this occurs, expect trade winds to build back through the rest of the week.

Meanwhile, a an upper level low will move over the islands beginning tonight. This low is already producing thunderstorms near the offshore waters, which will continue through Friday. As the low comes closer to the islands it will destabilize the atmosphere enough to support isolated thunderstorm chances across the coastal waters ,from Tuesday night through Friday.

Latest buoy observations show that a moderate, long period northwest (320 degree) swell is currently moving through the islands. This swell is originating from a deep low pressure system that produced storm force winds in the far NW Pacific during the second half of last week, then continued to aim gale force winds at Hawaii through early Sunday as it weakened. Additionally, the quick-moving remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Halong also produced a closer, very brief fetch aimed at Hawaii from a slightly more WNW (300 degree) direction late last week.

As a result, the current northwest swell is expected to peak, then begin its decline later in the day. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, and for north facing shores of Maui through this evening. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all Kauai Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters and Big Island windward Waters. With winds increasing tonight especially across the windier waters and channels, a SCA will go in effect around Maui Co. and the Big Island.

Small, medium period south swell energy will continue through the week, with minor pulses of longer periods arriving tonight and again on Saturday. East shores will remain small due to light winds, but should begin to increase beginning Wednesday as trades strengthen.

 



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  

Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo is located about 1385 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands

LORENZO WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC

According to the NHC advisory number 6

Lorenzo is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the north tonight. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

cone graphic

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

 

Northeastern Pacific: 

South of Southern Mexico:

>>> A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coast of southern Mexico and portions of Central America. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend. This system is expected to move little during the next few days, but a slow northwestward motion near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico is expected by the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

 

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Nakri)…is located approximately 703 NM east-northeast of Minami Tori Shima – Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2925.gif

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Can Solar Farms Become Future Refuges for Bumblebees?

Solar farms could become important refuges for bumblebees in Britain, a new study reveals – though their benefits only go so far.

In the first study to investigate the role of solar farms in future biodiversity conservation, a research team, from Lancaster University, the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and the University of Reading, set out to discover if the UK’s existing solar farms could support bumblebees in the face of a changing countryside.

They found that solar farm management – wildflower margins verses turf – was the main factor influencing the number of bumblebees within solar farms themselves.

Read more at: Lancaster University