The latest update to this website was at 926am, Thursday (HST)

 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday morning:

1.86  N Wailua Ditch, Kauai
0.59  Kalahee Ridge, Oahu
0.02  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.12  Lanai 1, Lanai
0.01  Kula Branch Stn, Maui
1.52  Pali 2, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Thursday morning:

06  Port Allen, Kauai
15  Kalahee Ridge, Oahu
15  Kalae Hwy, Molokai
13  Lanai 1, Lanai
17  Honoapiilani2, Maui
12  PTA West, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcams on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii, and atop the Haleakala Crater (~10,023 feet) on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

Thunderstorms south…cold fronts northwest 

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

High and middle level clouds to the south…well developed cumulus clouds just northeast of Kauai and Oahu

 

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

Showers locally…some quite heavy 

 

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Thursday comments:  I’m home here in upper Kula, Maui, Hawaii.

It’s mostly clear although with some clouds locally here in Maui County early this morning. The low temperature at my place was 53 degrees…with a relative humidity of 80%. It’s still voggy here in Maui County at least.

 

Weather Wit of the day: I think it’s amazing. We now have coffee without caffeine, beer without alcohol and milk without fat. What’s next-a-weekend without rain?

 

>>> Highest Temperature Wednesday, October 8, 2025 – 103 near Tecopa, CA
>>> Lowest Temperature Thursday, October 9, 2025 – 18 near Bynum, MT

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview: Light south to southeasterly flow will be with us into Friday, with overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes. A lingering area of increased moisture will support scattered to numerous showers near the western end of the state for the next couple of days. Light to moderate trades return late Friday, as surface high pressure northeast of the state becomes re-established.

Hawaii’s Weather Details: A surface low north of the state will weaken through Friday, allowing surface high pressure well off to the northeast to become our dominant wind feature by Saturday. This will bring a return of light to moderate easterly trade winds, and limit the influence of sea and land breezes. However, until that time, today and Friday will still have a strong component of these breezes.

This will once again bring an above-average amount of leeward showers to the state. The best chance for showers will be over Kauai, where a lingering but decaying boundary holds increased moisture. Radar has been active, with lightning observed to the northeast of the Kauai coastal waters. Additional showers were observed over the southeast and northwest coasts of the Big Island.

Models have come into better agreement on the evolution of an upper level trough forecast to form nearby in the early to middle part of next week, with the trough expected to form just north of, and then drift just west of, the state. The surface reflection of this feature will increase the pressure gradient (low pressure nearby to contrast with the high far off to our northeast), and thereby increase east to southeast flow Tuesday and Wednesday. This is not a true trade wind due to its direction, but the increase in speed will result in a different pattern compared to what we are experiencing this week. The exact details of these differences will become clearer as we get closer in time.

Fire weather:  Weak winds and continued isolated to scattered showers will help mitigate fire weather concerns for the next several days. Inversion heights across the state will range from as low as 5,000 to as high as 9,000 feet.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Vog map animation / 8-Day Precipitation model

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif 

 

Hawaii’s Marine Environment:  A surface trough near Kauai and Oahu will continue to drift northwest through the end of the week. Light to gentle southeast to south flow will also give way to localized land and sea breezes over nearshore waters. Gentle to locally fresh easterly trade winds will build in from the east through the day on Friday and hold through the weekend. Early next week, a potential surface trough develops north of the waters and may disrupt the trade winds for another round of light to gentle southeast winds.

A mix of a small, medium period northwest swell and a small, short period north-northeast swell will maintain small surf for north facing shores through Saturday. Another small, medium period northwest swell will fill in late Saturday, followed by a moderate, medium to long period northwest swell that is expected to fill in Sunday and peak on Monday near High Surf Advisory criteria. Recent model guidance has exhibited a low bias, compared with observed nearshore buoy readings running higher than forecast guidance. As a result, surf heights may come in larger then currently indicated by the model output.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the weekend, with a series of small, medium to long period south and southwest swells. East facing shores will remain tiny to small through Friday except for select shorelines exposed to the current small north-northeast swell. A slight increase is expected this weekend as easterly trade winds return. In addition, a small, medium to long period easterly swell from Tropical Cyclone Priscilla in the East Pacific is forecast to arrive late Saturday into Sunday.

Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas through early next week. Coastal flooding will coincide with the daily peak tide each morning. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all coastal areas through Friday, but will likely need to be extended into early next week.

 



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  

Tropical Cyclone Jerry…is located about 310 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands

JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BARBUDA

According to the NHC advisory number 9

Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected late today, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Barbuda later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area later today into Friday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

cone graphic

 

North Atlantic:

Invest 96L

>>> A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger shear environment.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent 
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent

 

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

Gulf of America:  There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7-days.

 

Northeastern Pacific: 

Post-Tropical Cyclone 15E (Octave)…is located about 360 miles south of the southern tip of Baja CA – Last Advisory

OCTAVE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE

According to the NHC advisory number 38

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph. This motion will continue until the system dissipates into an open trough later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph with higher gusts. The system is expected to continue to weaken and dissipate into an open trough later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

cone graphic

                

Tropical Cyclone 16E (Priscilla)…is located about 165 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja CA

PRISCILLA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND

According to the NHC advisory number 20 

Priscilla is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph . A turn toward the north is anticipated later today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

cone graphic

 

Tropical Cyclone 17E is located about 750 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Friday, followed by a northward turn by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Friday and then be near southern Baja California Sur Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday, but weakening is likely over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

cone graphic

 

North Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclone

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 28W (Halong)…is located approximately 356 NM east-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2825.gif

Tropical Cyclone 29W (Nakri)…is located approximately 368 NM east-southeast of Kadena AB

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2925.gif

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

South Indian Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  Tree-ring Data Sheds Light on Past and Present Summer Climate Extremes

A new study led by scientists at the University of Arizona used historical tree-ring data to study a key driver for widespread, extreme summer weather events: locked jet stream wave patterns that are often preceded by winter La Niña conditions in the Pacific.

The results from the paper, published in the journal AGU Advances, are poised to inform early warning systems that could better predict extreme weather events that present risks to agricultural crops, food supply, infrastructure and vulnerable populations.

“These types of patterns are particularly impactful, especially when they occur in major crop-growing regions, because they set the stage for what are called ‘compound climate events,'” said Ellie Broadman, formerly a postdoctoral researcher of paleoclimatology at the U of A Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research and currently a research scientist at the Arizona Geological Survey. “If you have heat waves and droughts happening in a bunch of different places all in the same summer, that has significant implications for food systems, agriculture, trade and for public health, as compared to one small, isolated drought.”

The jet stream is a high-altitude, meandering river of fast-moving air that forms wave-like curves in the atmosphere. When these waves reach a configuration with five peaks and five troughs circling the entire Northern Hemisphere, scientists call it a wavenumber-5 pattern, or wave5 pattern. When the wave5 pattern becomes “locked,” or stops moving, it traps heat domes and dry spells over specific regions for days at a time.

Read More: University of Arizona