June 2-3, 2009
Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday afternoon:
Lihue, Kauai – 83
Honolulu, Oahu – 90
Kaneohe, Oahu – 82
Kahului, Maui – 88
Hilo, Hawaii – 84
Kailua-kona – 89
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountains…at 4 p.m. Tuesday afternoon:
Kapalua, Maui – 90F
Kaneohe, Oahu – 79
Haleakala Crater – 59 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 41 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)
Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Tuesday afternoon:
0.19 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.04 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.01 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.04 Kamuela, Big Island
Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map shows a 1025 millibar high pressure system to the northeast of the islands, with a ridge extending from the southwest flank of the high…into the area northwest of Kauai. The trade winds will blow somewhat more gently Wednesday…before strengthening again Thursday onwards.
Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here’s a looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Hanalei Bay…Kauai
Artist Credit: Pierre Bouret
Light to moderately strong trade winds will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday…then surge forward Thursday through the rest of the week. Looking at this weather map Tuesday evening, we see a high pressure system to our northeast, with its associated ridge near Kauai. The close proximity of this ridge may weaken our local winds Wednesday, bringing our wind speeds down a nortch…as a dissipating cold front passes by to our north. This slightly softer version of the trade winds won’t last long however, as they will strengthen again already by Thursday onwards. There’s a good chance that they will be strong enough to trigger a small craft wind advisory in the windier locations Friday into the weekend.
Whatever few showers that fall here in the Hawaiian Islands will be light…with most areas remaining totally dry for the time being. The windward sides will be where most of these few showers will land, generally during the night and early morning hours. The leeward beaches will likely as dry as they have been…as a stable and dry atmosphere remains in place. This is very normal for the month of June, which qualifies as the driest month of the year. The forecast models don’t show any sign of change in this regard, so that we can expect a minimal amount of rainfall through most of the rest of this week.
Other than a few windward showers, it appears very likely that we’ll remain in a pleasant late spring weather pattern, at least for the moment. The leeward sides of the islands are all set up for another nice day of beaching Wednesday. Speaking of the beaches, we have a couple of new swells that will bring rising surf to our north, west, and south facing shores. A storm far to our northwest in the Pacific, and another down in the southern hemisphere, near New Zealand…are the source areas for these new waves that will arrive going into Wednesday. It’s always a good idea to be careful in the waves, especially if you’re not used to their power.
It’s Tuesday evening here in Kula, Maui, as I begin writing this last section of today’s narrative. Tuesday was another great day, a lot like the last several days have been, and probably very similar to what the next several days will be. Air temperatures, at least near sea level, will rise well up into the 80F’s, or perhaps flirt again with the 90 degree mark in those very warmest locations. The big city of Honolulu hit that degree of heat, as did Kapalua, Maui, later in the day Tuesday. The trade winds will remain active, although may slip just a touch on Wednesday. By the way, it looks like we have some high clouds coming our way, as you can see by viewing this looping satellite image. ~~~ I’m about ready to get out there for my early evening walk, and then it will be back out on my weather deck, to take in the sunset. I have a nice dinner planned, with organic bbq’d chicken, plated with a hefty amount of fresh picked salad greens out of the garden. I’ll be back here early Wednesday morning with your next new weather narrative from paradise. I hope you have a great Tuesday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Interesting: Researchers were stunned to discover recently that Earth is losing more of its atmosphere than Venus and Mars, which have negligible magnetic fields. This may mean our planet’s magnetic shield may not be as solid a protective screen as once believed when it comes to guarding the atmosphere from an assault from the sun.
"We often tell ourselves that we are very fortunate living on this planet because we have this strong magnetic shield that protects us from all sorts of things that the cosmos throws at us — cosmic rays, solar flares and the pesky solar wind," said Christopher Russell, a professor of geophysics and space physics at the University of California, Los Angeles.
"It certainly does help in some of those areas but … in the case of the atmosphere, this may not be true," he said. Russel and others came to this realization while meeting at a comparative planetology conference last month. "Three of us who work on Earth, Venus and Mars got together and compared notes," Russell told Discovery News. "We said, ‘Oh my goodness — what we’ve been telling people about the magnetic shield is not correct.’"
Interesting2: Climate change can have devastating effects on endangered species, but new mathematical models may be able to aid conservation of a population of bighorn sheep. The effects of a changing climate on a population of bighorn sheep can be mathematically predicted, as described in a recent paper recommended by Faculty of 1000 Biology members Barry Brook and Lochran Traill.
Researchers from Germany, the US, and Mexico studied a population of bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon island, Mexico, in 1975. Here, the sheep are not at risk from disease or predators, and climate change is the only variable threat to the animals. In this new study, the researchers predicted the effect of climate change on the sheep population using a mathematical simulation.
The sheep appear to be vulnerable to increased drought in the area – a side-effect of global climate change. More severe drought will eventually lead to a decrease in the sheep population. Being able to predict the effect of climate change before it happens is of great importance to the conservation of endangered species. Brook and Traill point out that their calculations can be adapted to other species, in other regions: "The work is therefore an important contribution towards […] the continued conservation of small populations under global change."
Interesting3: Biologists have for several years modeled how different species are likely to respond to climate change. Most such studies ignore differences between populations within a species and the interactions between species, in the interest of simplicity. An article in the June issue of BioScience, by Eric Post of Pennsylvania State University and five colleagues, shows how these limitations can be avoided.
Their approach, which relies on multi-stage analyses of how populations fluctuate over time, could allow biologists to model responses to climate change with improved accuracy. In particular, the approach could help identify regions where local populations are vulnerable to climate change, and it could elucidate species interactions that may not be obvious.
The article concentrates on recent analyses by Post and others of yellow-billed cuckoos, caribou/wild reindeer, elk and red deer, and wolves and moose. Continent-wide and hemisphere-wide responses depended both on local weather and on broader climate patterns, and all species showed marked variation among populations.
The pattern of responses, Post and colleagues report, "suggests a strong role for species interactions in buffering responses to climate." For example, local populations near the northern edge of a species’ range often seem to be more directly affected by climate than do populations near the southern edge, where biological interactions typically complicate responses to climate change.
The time series approach described by Post and colleagues is intended to supplement simpler methods rather than replace them. It can only be used on species for which there are detailed abundance records extending over, ideally, 25 years or more. Still, the authors note, refinements in statistical techniques are starting to allow more imperfect data to be analyzed, and data are accumulating, so the outlook for time-series analysis is promising.
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