Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:

88 – 78  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
 88 – 74  Molokai
90 – 71  Kahului AP, Maui – record high temperature for Sunday was 96…back in 1951
88 – 76  Kailua Kona
84 – 70  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Sunday evening:

0.35  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.16  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
 0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.05  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.75  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Sunday evening:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
31  Kuaokala, Oahu
31  Molokai
30  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
30  Maalaea Bay, Maui
29  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Tropical Storm Irwin continues spinning far to the east of Hawaii

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Low clouds arriving on the trades…high cirrus arriving from the southwest 


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Just a few showers – Looping radar image



Small Craft Advisory…Maalaea Bay, Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels, leeward and southeast waters of the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: Mostly dry and pleasant weather can be expected through Monday, as high pressure far northeast of the area provides moderate trade winds. A frontal system developing far north of the state, will cause trade winds to be a bit lighter Tuesday through Thursday. Moderate trade winds are expected to return later in the week…on into the weekend. Passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas, with most leeward locations remaining dry.

Details: The trade winds will be a bit lighter during the mid-week period, as an area of low pressure and its associated frontal boundary moves by well north of the islands. Models don’t show many moisture sources, and upper level support for enhancing showers will be limited. Any showers that do fall will mainly occur over windward areas. Daytime heating will prompt clouds to build up over the leeward Big Island slopes each afternoon…with some showers a possibility. 

Looking Further Ahead: High pressure will build back in north of the area by Friday into next weekend, with trade wind speeds picking up to moderate levels. Clouds and passing showers will continue to favor windward and mountain areas, with generally dry conditions expected over most leeward locations. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone active here in the central Pacific isn’t expected through at least through the next 5-days…and likely much further out than that.

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands / Here’s the vog forecast animation / Here’s the latest weather map

Marine environment details: Relatively strong trade winds will continue across the island waters, then slightly weaken over the upcoming week. The small craft advisory currently in place due to strong winds between Molokai and the Big Island across the channels, Maalaea Bay and south of the Big Island will likely continue through tonight, before the winds dip below criteria Monday. Moderate or stronger trades will likely persist through the upcoming week, and should remain just below advisory criteria.

Rough surf along eastern facing shores, due to onshore winds locally and upstream of the islands, will continue, then gradually trend down as the trades relax over the upcoming week. Model guidance, however, continues to emphasize minor swell energy filling in today across the islands from east to west…generated by the distant tropical cyclone activity across the eastern Pacific (recent Hurricanes Irwin and Hilary).

Surf along south facing shores will likely hold today, before slowly trending down tonight into Monday, as the south swell that filled in Friday and Saturday lowers. Meanwhile, a small source from the south-southwest is expected Monday night through Wednesday, followed by a small south-southeast swell Tuesday night through Friday…should be enough to keep the surf from going flat along south facing shores.

A more notable south swell will become a possibility for the first weekend in August. This swell will be in response to a gale that has developed within Hawaii’s swell window east of New Zealand over the past 36 hours.

A west swell from Typhoon Noru in western Pacific arrived at the Hanalei buoy yesterday evening. Very small surf, however, is expected from this source through the the day today.

 

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A few showers riding in on the trades



World-wide tropical cyclone activity


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclone

1.) Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about midway between west Africa and the Lesser Antilles remains limited. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclone

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical Storm Emily is now active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm Irwin remains active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern Pacific Ocean are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph south of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: 

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 07W (Noru) is active, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Depression 12W (Haitang) is dissipating, here’s a graphical track map, a satellite image – Final Warning

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: ‘Missing lead’ in Flint water pipes confirms cause of crisis — A study of lead service lines in Flint’s damaged drinking water system reveals a Swiss cheese pattern in the pipes’ interior crust, with holes where the lead used to be.

The findings—led by researchers at the University of Michigan—support the generally accepted understanding that lead leached into the system because that water wasn’t treated to prevent corrosion. While previous studies had pointed to this mechanism, this is the first direct evidence. It contradicts a regulator’s claim earlier this year that corrosion control chemicals would not have prevented the water crisis.

Researchers say the findings underscore how important uninterrupted anti-corrosion treatment is for the aging water systems that serve millions of American homes.

The team focused on the layer of metal scale—essentially lead rust—inside 10 lead service line samples from around Flint. They studied the texture of the rust layer, as well as its chemical composition. Then they used their analysis to estimate that the average lead service line released 18 grams of lead during the 17 months that Flint river water (without corrosion control) flowed through the system.

“This is the amount of lead that would have entered a single home,” said Terese Olson, a U-M associate professor of civil and environmental engineering and lead author of a study in Environmental Science and Technology Letters. “If we average that release over the entire period the city received Flint River water, it would suggest that on average, the lead concentration would be at least twice the EPA action level of 15 parts per billion.”

The lead ended up in several places.

“Some was consumed,” Olson said. “Some washed down the drain. Some might still be stored in the homes’ plumbing. In other words, there is a chance that some of that lead is a potential health risk even after the lead service line is removed.”

Back scattered electron images of a cross-section of the layer of metal scale, or rust, inside pipe samples from lead service lines in Flint, Michigan. The outside of the pipe is on the left side, and the holes in the “Swiss cheese pattern” are voids where the lead used to be, say researchers at the University of Michigan College of Engineering. Untreated, corrosive water caused the lead to leach out, leaving behind a mineral skeleton of aluminum and magnesium. Image credit: Brian EllisIf a lead service line connects to a home with galvanized steel pipes, for example, those pipes can act as lead sponges that can hold and then later release particles containing the toxic metal, said study co-author Brian Ellis, U-M assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering.

In addition to examining pipe samples under a scanning electron microscope, the researchers pulverized the pipe linings to analyze what they’re made of. In the Flint pipes, they found a greater ratio of aluminum and magnesium to lead than is typical for lead service lines, when compared with data from 26 other water utilities.

“We estimated how much lead was ‘missing’ in order to bring the Flint lead scale into line with the amount of aluminum and magnesium that was reported in other communities,” Olson said. “That missing lead represents what was leached from the pipes during the Flint corrosion episode.”

As lead pipes age, the atoms on their surface react with oxygen and other chemicals in the system and become oxidized, or rusted. Adequate water treatment doesn’t prevent that process. What it does prevent, though, is the breakdown of the rust layer.

“It’s like when you put an old penny in a glass of Coke and watch it get shiny again,” Ellis said. “The acid in the Coke dissolves the copper corrosion product. This is similar to what happened in Flint’s lines. You can have a stable corrosion product, but when you change the water chemistry the oxidized lead compounds on the surface may become unstable and readily dissolve.”

Water utilities with both corrosive water and lead service lines in their systems add compounds called orthophosphates to prevent that breakdown. When Flint switched from Lake Huron water to the more corrosive Flint River to save money, the utility didn’t adjust its treatment process by adding orthophosphates.

“Beyond implications for Flint, we demonstrated that small changes in water chemistry can release what was stable lead in a fairly quick pulse,” Ellis said. “This is a known condition. So while we weren’t surprised, being able to show it underscores the importance of maintaining uninterrupted lead corrosion control.”