Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:
80 – 72 Lihue, Kauai
81 – 73 Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 72 Kahului AP, Maui
83 – 70 Kailua Kona
78 – 67 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:
0.42 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.13 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.05 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.24 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.84 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Wednesday evening:
25 Port Allen, Kauai
25 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27 Molokai
22 Lanai
32 Kahoolawe
29 Kahului AP, Maui
25 South Point, Big Island
Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
High pressure to our northeast will dominate our local weather, with a cold front north and northwest…which won’t reach the islands
Low clouds in our area…with thunderstorms far south and east
Clear to partly cloudy in general…windward showers locally
Showers locally…nothing unusual – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…many coastal and channel waters
High Surf Advisory…north and west shores of Kauai and Molokai, and north shores of Oahu and Maui, and the east shores of Maui and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Trade winds remain active over the state…which will continue into the Christmas Holiday weekend and beyond. Here’s the latest weather map, showing moderately strong, near 1030 millibar high pressure systems located to our northeast, north and north-northwest. At the same time, we have a trough of low pressure well offshore to the west of the state, along with the tail end of a cold front just to the north. The trade winds will be the primary weather influence well into the future, and are expected to become locally strong and gusty at times…through this week into next week.
We’re into a typical very early winter trade wind weather pattern…which will hold firm through the next week. Satellite imagery shows that we have some windward showers falling locally. The outlook for the Christmas Holiday weekend shows that this trade wind weather pattern will remain in charge, along with the usual off and on periods of windward showers…continuing into next week. The one slight interruption will be a cold front approaching the state Friday into Saturday, although other than knocking our trade winds down a notch, won’t have much of an influence. In sum, nothing unusual on the weather horizon through the weekend into at least early next week.
Marine environment details: The east facing shores of Maui and the Big Island remain included in the High Surf Advisory, due to buoy observations showing swell with just enough energy to produce high surf conditions.
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most waters, and for windward waters and the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui Thursday. This advisory is due to a combination of a north-northwest swell, trade wind swell and strong trade winds over the channels and typically windier locations. The north-northwest swell will hold, before gradually easing Thursday and Friday.
Surf associated with the strong trades locally and background trade wind swell should remain just below the advisory threshold for the eastern facing shores, west of Maui through Thursday…before trending down as the trades weaken temporarily Friday. Strong high pressure will quickly build east in the wake of a front well north of the state late Sunday through early next week, which will translate to strong to possibly gale force trade winds (strongest over the channels and the typically windier zones).
Models depict a storm to hurricane force low developing near the International Date Line south of the Aleutian Islands Thursday and Thursday night. Surf associated with this source should fill in locally through the overnight hours Saturday night…before peaking through the day Sunday near or at High Surf Warning level for north facing shores.
Despite winter having begun now, our weather will remain favorably inclined…with the trade winds definitely in charge
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…with storms showing up when active
>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended
Here’s the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical Cyclone 30W (Nock-ten) is active in the northwest Pacific Ocean, headed towards Yap and the Philippines. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
Tropical Cyclone 02S (Yvette) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, headed towards the NW coast of Australia. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting Scientists: Strong evidence that human-caused climate change intensified 2015 heat waves – Human-caused climate change very likely increased the severity of heat waves that plagued India, Pakistan, Europe, East Africa, East Asia, and Australia in 2015 and helped make it the warmest year on record, according to new research published today in a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
The fifth edition of Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective, presents 25 peer-reviewed research papers that examine episodes of extreme weather of 2015 over five continents and two oceans. It features the research of 116 scientists from 18 countries analyzing both historical observations and changing trends along with model results to determine whether and how climate change may have influenced the event.
The strongest evidence for a human influence was found for temperature-related events — the increased intensity of numerous heat waves, diminished snowpack in the Cascades, record-low Arctic sea ice extent in March and the extraordinary extent and duration of Alaska wildfires.
“After five years of the BAMS Explaining Extreme Events report, we’re seeing mounting evidence that climate change is making heat waves more extreme in many regions around the world,” said lead editor Stephanie C. Herring, a scientist with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. “As we get better at distinguishing the influence of climate change from natural variability, the local significance and impacts of this global phenomenon are becoming clearer.”
Evidence of climate change in 2015 flooding, fires – and sunshine
Numerous other events of 2015 were made more extreme by climate change, the report found. The probability of “sunny day” tidal flooding events in the Miami area, like the one that inundated coastal areas that September, has risen 500 percent since 1994, according to one study. Human-induced climate change likely contributed to the record high intensity of west North Pacific typhoons and the record amount of winter sunshine in the United Kingdom.
But researchers found no evidence of an overall climate change signal in the delayed onset of the Nigerian spring rainy season or in the extreme daily rainfall totals that inundated Chennai, India in December. There was likewise no evidence that the extreme cold winter conditions over the northeast United States in 2015 were made more likely by human-induced climate change.
Lessons learned over the past five years
More than 100 papers examining extreme events have been accepted for publication in this special report since its inaugural issue in 2012. These studies take a place-based and event-specific approach to identifying the role of climate change, and answer the question of how much a particular recent event’s likelihood of recurrence or intensity has changed relative to the past.
While there’s mounting evidence in the role of climate change in amplifying the severity of heat waves, evidence of a climate change signal has not been found in a majority of extreme precipitation studies published in this special edition, Herring said.
However, she cautioned that the lack of clear evidence of a climate signal did not necessarily mean climate change played no role in an event. A “null” result could mean the event fell within the bounds of natural variability. It could also mean that the framing of the research question or the method of analysis chosen requires further refinement and development.
Identifying analytical methods that work better than others
Contributing authors choose the event they wish to study, so the new studies are neither a random sample nor a comprehensive survey of extreme weather events. They do illustrate how various methods can be applied to extreme event analysis, she said, and in cases where multiple groups look at the same event, the relative skill of different approaches can be compared.
“With this report, we continue to document scientists’ growing ability to identify how climate change influences today’s weather,” said Jeff Rosenfeld, editor-in-chief of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, which independently conducts the peer reviews for studies included in this special report. “These accessible and brief papers show the scientific community and the public that once seemingly impossible insights about climate impacts are now within the capability of timely, rigorous science.”
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