Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday along with the low temperatures Saturday:

80 – 63  Lihue, Kauai
79 – 68  Honolulu, Oahu
77 – 67  Molokai AP
80 – 69  Kahului AP, Maui
82 – 67  Kailua Kona
79 – 66  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (in inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday evening:

2.69  Mohihi Crossing, Kauai
0.90  Poamoho, Oahu
 0.60  Molokai
0.09  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.01  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.74  Kealakomo, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday evening:

28  Poipu, Kauai – SW
21  Kuaokala, Oahu – SSW
18  Molokai – SW
 18  Lanai – SW
16  Kahoolawe – SW
 35  Kula 1, Maui – S
35  PTA Kipuka Alala, Big Island – SW 

Here’s a wind profile of the Pacific Ocean – Closer view of the islands

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. This webcam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars — and the sunrise and sunset too — depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A low pressure system, now close to or over Kauai…will keep off and on showers and the possibility of a few thunderstorms in the forecast through this weekend

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The unusual low pressure system, spinning in a counter-clockwise fashion near Kauai, will drop down into the area just west, bringing localized showers…some heavy

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This low pressure system is digging southward near Kauai, bringing more showers our way, with considerable clouds over…and to the east of the Big Island

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Lots of showers around, some quite generous in places – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…around Kauai and over most of the windward waters from Oahu to the Big Island

High Surf Advisory…north and west shores of Kauai and Molokai, and north shores of Oahu and Maui

High Wind Warning…Big Island summits / 40-60 with 80 mph gusts

Flood Advisory…large part of the Big Island


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Note: It’s been very windy early this morning here in Upcountry east Maui. As a result, there’s always the chance that a tree could fall over a power line, or whatever. This of course would cut off my power, and the ability to keep this website updated. So, if that happens, please know that I’ll be waiting for the first opportunity to bring fresh weather information to you, as soon as the power were to return. I certainly hope this doesn’t happen!

Winds will be from the west to south and locally gusty…turning southeast Sunday into Monday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure west, with another stronger high pressure cell located far northeast. At the same time, we have a low pressure system just to the north, moving southwest. Winds will be locally gusty from the west to southwest as this low pressure system moves closer to the islands. Then, as the low moves away from the state Sunday into Monday, our winds will veer to the southeast, potentially carrying volcanic haze (vog) over the smaller islands briefly. Looking further ahead, we should see the return of trade winds Tuesday…which are expected to become locally gusty well into the new work week.

A Kona low pressure system just to the north of Hawaii…will move even closer this weekend. We’ll see showers falling locally, along with the chance of a few thunderstorms popping up here and there. The most active showers will likely occur today into Monday morning…with the chance of localized flooding issues. Following this episode of unsettled weather, we should find windward showers returning, brought in on the trade winds beginning later Monday into Tuesday onward. We might actually see a more typical trade wind weather pattern, with a drying trend returning by the middle of next week. The next possible change in weather will arrive later next week, edging into the Christmas Holiday weekend.

Marine environment details: Hazardous boating and beach conditions will continue today, before improving later in the weekend and early next week due to a combination of a large northwest swell, advisory to warning level surf at the exposed north and west facing beaches, and moderate to locally strong southwest winds. The strongest winds can be expected over and around the channels and across the waters that are typically protected during a normal trade wind pattern, which includes the leeward waters, channels and Maalaea Bay. The overnight satellite pass clipped the Maui County and Big Island waters, where 20 to 25 knot winds were shown out of the southwest. The highest winds were shown over the Alenuihaha Channel…just east of Maui.

Although the nearshore and offshore buoys indicate the seas have peaked and have begun to slowly trend down this morning, they will likely remain at or above advisory levels through the rest of the weekend over most waters due to a reinforcing west-northwest swell expected to fill in late tonight through Sunday. Seas should temporarily drop to or just below the advisory level through the day Monday over all waters, but will build once again Tuesday through the mid-week period, as fresh to strong trade winds return and another northwest swell fills in.

Local winds will steadily shift from the west and southwest today, to southeast Sunday, east-southeast Monday, then east by Wednesday as the low moves through and high pressure builds over the region early next week. A return of fresh to strong trades are expected by Wednesday, which will likely correspond to a Small Craft Advisory over the typically windier channel waters.

Surf along north and west facing shores will remain rough today due to a combination of the large northwest swell and fresh to strong west and southwest winds. Surf should drop below warning levels by the afternoon, but hold at or near the advisory threshold through the rest of the day. The advisory may be extended through Sunday, if the expected reinforcing west-northwest swell fills in larger than anticipated late tonight into Sunday. Surf conditions along north and west facing shores should improve through this time Sunday as the winds shift to the southeast. This swell will lower Sunday night through Monday. Advisory level surf will become a possibility once again by Wednesday, as a new northwest swell fills in Tuesday…and peaks Wednesday.

Surf along east facing shores will begin to build through the mid-week period due to fresh to strong trade winds developing locally, and well upstream of the state…which could near or reach advisory levels by Wednesday.

 

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Large surf along our north and west shores

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity…with storms showing up when active


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>>> Atlantic Ocean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The 2016 hurricane season has ended

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: ‘Chemtrails’ not real, say atmospheric science experts – Well-understood physical and chemical processes can easily explain the alleged evidence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program, commonly referred to as “chemtrails” or “covert geoengineering,” concludes a new study from Carnegie Science, University of California Irvine, and the nonprofit organization Near Zero.

Some groups and individuals erroneously believe that the long-lasting condensation trails, or contrails, left behind aircraft are evidence of a secret large-scale spraying program. They call these imagined features “chemtrails.” Adherents of this conspiracy theory sometimes attribute this alleged spraying to the government and sometimes to industry.

The authors of this study, including Carnegie’s Ken Caldeira, conducted a survey of the world’s leading atmospheric scientists, who categorically rejected the existence of a secret spraying program. The team’s findings, published by Environmental Research Letters, are based on a survey of two groups of experts: atmospheric chemists who specialize in condensation trails and geochemists working on atmospheric deposition of dust and pollution.

The survey results show that 76 of the 77 participating scientists said they had not encountered evidence of a secret spraying program, and agree that the alleged evidence cited by the individuals who believe that atmospheric spraying is occurring could be explained through other factors, such as typical airplane contrail formation and poor data sampling.

The research team undertook their study in response to the large number of people who claim to believe in a secret spraying program. In a 2011 international survey, nearly 17 percent of respondents said they believed the existence of a secret large-scale atmospheric spraying program to be true or partly true. And in recent years a number of websites have arisen claiming to show evidence of widespread secret chemical spraying, which they say is linked to negative impacts on human health and the environment.

“We wanted to establish a scientific record on the topic of secret atmospheric spraying programs for the benefit of those in the public who haven’t made up their minds,” said Steven Davis of UC Irvine. “The experts we surveyed resoundingly rejected contrail photographs and test results as evidence of a large-scale atmospheric conspiracy.”

The research team says they do not hope to sway those already convinced that there is a secret spraying program — as these individuals usually only reject counter-evidence as further proof of their theories — but rather to establish a source of objective science that can inform public discourse.

“Despite the persistence of erroneous theories about atmospheric chemical spraying programs, until now there were no peer-reviewed academic studies showing that what some people think are ‘chemtrails’ are just ordinary contrails, which are becoming more abundant as air travel expands. Also, it is possible that climate change is causing contrails to persist for longer periods than they used to.” Caldeira said. “I felt it was important to definitively show what real experts in contrails and aerosols think. We might not convince die-hard believers that their beloved secret spraying program is just a paranoid fantasy, but hopefully their friends will accept the facts.”