Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:
81 – 75 Lihue, Kauai
85 – 77 Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 76 Molokai AP
89 – 75 Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 78 Kona AP
86 – 75 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Saturday evening:
3.51 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
2.02 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.70 Molokai
0.04 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
1.61 West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.13 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Saturday evening:
27 Port Allen, Kauai
40 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27 Molokai
32 Lanai
38 Kahoolawe
31 Maalaea Bay, Maui
22 Waikoloa, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Former Howard is skimming by just to our north, while Tropical Storm Ivette is still well to the east of the islands, it looks like whatever is left of Ivette…will slide by south of the islands
What the computer models are showing for Tropical Storm Ivette, which will weaken to a remnant low pressure system…well before getting into range of the Hawaiian Islands
Retired Howard is a swirl of low clouds clipping the islands…with Tropical Storm Ivette coming into the picture on the right
Former Howard is just north of Maui County this morning…with a couple of small thunderstorms flaring up just to the north of the center
Showers mostly windward sides…increasing – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…Kauai northwest and windward waters, Kauai channel…and Oahu windward waters
High Surf Advisory…large surf building on east shores
Flash Flood Watch…for all islands Sunday morning into Monday
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Off and on strong and gusty winds locally, variable in direction…will remain active this weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing moderately strong high pressure systems well northwest and north-northeast of Hawaii. The forecast calls for our local winds to remain active through this weekend, and then accelerate again Monday from the trade wind direction. As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, the trades should strengthen some. It’s still too early to know what kind of wind conditions that Tropical Cyclone Ivette will bring our way later next week. The latest models shows that Ivette will have been downgraded to a remnant low pressure system soon after entering our central Pacific Sunday…from the eastern Pacific.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
An area of tropical moisture, associated with what is former TC Howard…will pass by closely to the north into Sunday. At this point, it looks like rains will become locally heavy into Monday morning. This will occur as deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Howard moves over the island chain, bringing sultry conditions our way. The bulk of this precipitation may take aim most effectively on the islands from Kauai to Oahu, Molokai and maybe Maui…with the Big Island somewhat less wet perhaps. This threat could include thunderstorms and possible flash flooding across some areas of the state, especially Sunday into part of Monday. A more normal shower pattern will return Tuesday into Wednesday…although not for long!
We could see yet another area of tropical moisture approaching the state around next Thursday or so…as whatever is left of TC Ivette moves into range. Based on what some of the models are suggesting, we could see Ivette bring the threat of more heavy rainfall, and possibly breezy conditions, stay tuned…as this outlook will go through many changes between now and then. The good thing is that the long range forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Ivette weakening as it crosses over into our central Pacific tomorrow. Ivette is expected to be retired, and lost it’s strong winds…while likely passing a little south of the islands. This southerly track may bring the northern fringe of rain mostly over the Big Island and perhaps Maui County.
Marine environment details: As the surface low associated with former Tropical Cyclone Howard reaches just north of Maui County overnight, winds will decrease over the eastern end of the state and remain in the fresh to strong range near Oahu and Kauai. Seas will rapidly drop off from east to west on Sunday as moderate to fresh east-southeast winds build in from the east. A fresh trade wind flow will develop on Monday for several days.
Short period easterly swell from Howard has increased. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for east facing shores, and will likely need to be extended through Sunday for Oahu and Kauai…as seas diminish from east to west. Another easterly swell, from Tropical Storm Ivette, is expected as early as Monday night through the middle of the work week.
A little change of pace from the weather
World-wide tropical cyclone activity
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
1.) Disorganized cloudiness and showers continue over the western Atlantic Ocean located near the southeastern Bahamas. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days while it moves northwestward and then northward, nearly midway between Florida and Bermuda by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
1.) A weak area of low pressure located inland over north-central Florida near Cross City, continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the Gulf of Mexico. This system is drifting northeastward to northward, and is expected to move father inland today and Monday before significant development can occur. Heavy rainfall is forecast over portions of the north- central Florida peninsula, and possibly over parts of the Florida panhandle, during the next few days that could result in flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm 10E (Ivette) remains active in the eastern Pacific…located 1105 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii
Tropical Storm Ivette will begin a more distinct weakening trend…as it enters our central Pacific basin later Sunday
Tropical Depression 11E is now active in the eastern Pacific…located 50 west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, here’s a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
1.) A swirl of low clouds with embedded showers in the vicinity
of the post-tropical low associated with former tropical cyclone
Howard is centered about 55 miles north of Kahului, Hawaii.
Marginal sea surface temperatures, and hostile upper level winds
are expected to inhibit redevelopment of this system as it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
2.) The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ivette, located over 1150 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Ivette is expected to cross 140W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility later today or tonight.
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical Storm 07W (Omais) remains active in the northwestern Pacific, located about 400 NM southeast of Yokosuka…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: NASA Satellite Reveals How Much Saharan Dust Feeds Amazon’s Plants – What connects Earth’s largest, hottest desert to its largest tropical rain forest?
Here’s a video of the Saharan Dust in 3-D
The Sahara Desert is a near-uninterrupted brown band of sand and scrub across the northern third of Africa. The Amazon rain forest is a dense green mass of humid jungle that covers northeast South America. But after strong winds sweep across the Sahara, a tan cloud rises in the air, stretches between the continents, and ties together the desert and the jungle. It’s dust. And lots of it.
For the first time, a NASA satellite has quantified in three dimensions how much dust makes this trans-Atlantic journey. Scientists have not only measured the volume of dust, they have also calculated how much phosphorus – remnant in Saharan sands from part of the desert’s past as a lake bed – gets carried across the ocean from one of the planet’s most desolate places to one of its most fertile.
A paper published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, provides the first satellite-based estimate of this phosphorus transport over multiple years, said lead author Hongbin Yu, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Maryland who works at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. A paper published online by Yu and colleagues Jan. 8 in Remote Sensing of the Environment provided the first multi-year satellite estimate of overall dust transport from the Sahara to the Amazon.
This trans-continental journey of dust is important because of what is in the dust, Yu said. Specifically the dust picked up from the Bodélé Depression in Chad, an ancient lake bed where rock minerals composed of dead microorganisms are loaded with phosphorus. Phosphorus is an essential nutrient for plant proteins and growth, which the Amazon rain forest depends on in order to flourish.
Nutrients – the same ones found in commercial fertilizers – are in short supply in Amazonian soils. Instead they are locked up in the plants themselves. Fallen, decomposing leaves and organic matter provide the majority of nutrients, which are rapidly absorbed by plants and trees after entering the soil. But some nutrients, including phosphorus, are washed away by rainfall into streams and rivers, draining from the Amazon basin like a slowly leaking bathtub.
The phosphorus that reaches Amazon soils from Saharan dust, an estimated 22,000 tons per year, is about the same amount as that lost from rain and flooding, Yu said. The finding is part of a bigger research effort to understand the role of dust and aerosols in the environment and on local and global climate.
Dust in the Wind
“We know that dust is very important in many ways. It is an essential component of the Earth system. Dust will affect climate and, at the same time, climate change will affect dust,” said Yu. To understand what those effects may be, “First we have to try to answer two basic questions. How much dust is transported? And what is the relationship between the amount of dust transport and climate indicators?”
The new dust transport estimates were derived from data collected by a lidar instrument on NASA’s Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation, or CALIPSO, satellite from 2007 though 2013.
The data show that wind and weather pick up on average 182 million tons of dust each year and carry it past the western edge of the Sahara at longitude 15W. This volume is the equivalent of 689,290 semi trucks filled with dust. The dust then travels 1,600 miles across the Atlantic Ocean, though some drops to the surface or is flushed from the sky by rain. Near the eastern coast of South America, at longitude 35W, 132 million tons remain in the air, and 27.7 million tons – enough to fill 104,908 semi trucks – fall to the surface over the Amazon basin. About 43 million tons of dust travel farther to settle out over the Caribbean Sea, past longitude 75W.
Yu and colleagues focused on the Saharan dust transport across the Atlantic Ocean to South America and then beyond to the Caribbean Sea because it is the largest transport of dust on the planet.
Dust collected from the Bodélé Depression and from ground stations on Barbados and in Miami give scientists an estimate of the proportion of phosphorus in Saharan dust. This estimate is used to calculate how much phosphorus gets deposited in the Amazon basin from this dust transport.
The seven-year data record, while too short for looking at long-term trends, is nevertheless very important for understanding how dust and other aerosols behave as they move across the ocean, said Chip Trepte, project scientist for CALIPSO at NASA’s Langley Research Center in Virginia, who was not involved in either study.
“We need a record of measurements to understand whether or not there is a fairly robust, fairly consistent pattern to this aerosol transport,” he said.
Looking at the data year by year shows that that pattern is actually highly variable. There was an 86 percent change between the highest amount of dust transported in 2007 and the lowest in 2011, Yu said.
Why so much variation? Scientists believe it has to do with the conditions in the Sahel, the long strip of semi-arid land on the southern border of the Sahara. After comparing the changes in dust transport to a variety of climate factors, the one Yu and his colleagues found a correlation to was the previous year’s Sahel rainfall. When Sahel rainfall increased, the next year’s dust transport was lower.
The mechanism behind the correlation is unknown, Yu said. One possibility is that increased rainfall means more vegetation and less soil exposed to wind erosion in the Sahel. A second, more likely explanation is that the amount of rainfall is related to the circulation of winds, which are what ultimately sweep dust from both the Sahel and Sahara into the upper atmosphere where it can survive the long journey across the ocean.
CALIPSO collects “curtains” of data that show valuable information about the altitude of dust layers in the atmosphere. Knowing the height at which dust travels is important for understanding, and eventually using computers to model, where that dust will go and how the dust will interact with Earth’s heat balance and clouds, now and in future climate scenarios.
“Wind currents are different at different altitudes,” said Trepte. “This is a step forward in providing the understanding of what dust transport looks like in three dimensions, and then comparing with these models that are being used for climate studies.”
Climate studies range in scope from global to regional changes, such as those that may occur in the Amazon in coming years. In addition to dust, the Amazon is home to many other types of aerosols like smoke from fires and biological particles, such as bacteria, fungi, pollen, and spores released by the plants themselves. In the future, Yu and his colleagues plan to explore the effects of those aerosols on local clouds – and how they are influenced by dust from Africa.
“This is a small world,” Yu said, “and we’re all connected together.”
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Kristi Says:
Hi Glenn,
I’m back to checking your forecast. We were in Maui last August and had the intense humidity and no trade winds. Looks like the trade winds are back. Looking forward to a week in paradise.
-Kristi
~~~ Hi Kristi, nice to hear from you, and thanks for referring to my website…ahead of your arriving back to Hawaii on vacation.
Hawaii is looking forward to your return…have a wonderful time here in Paradise!
Aloha, Glenn