Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:
87 – 77 Lihue, Kauai
86 – 74 Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 77 Molokai AP
90 – 77 Kahului AP, Maui – record high 96…back in 1951
89 – 75 Kona AP
87 – 75 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Wednesday evening:
0.03 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.03 Punaluu Stream, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.01 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.08 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Wednesday evening:
30 Port Allen, Kauai
54 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
31 Molokai
31 Lanai
39 Kahoolawe
31 Maalaea Bay, Maui
33 Pali 2, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Tropical Depression Frank…poses no threat to the Hawaiian Islands
Thunderstorms far southwest and south
Extensive area of low clouds, all the way back to the west coast of the mainland, moving towards the islands…generally clear to partly cloudy in most areas nonetheless
A few showers locally…not many – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…all coasts and channels across the state
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
High pressure building north of the state…will keep a moderate to breezy trade wind flow in place through the week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong high pressure system far northeast of Hawaii. In addition, there’s a weakening low pressure trough over the ocean to the northwest of the islands. High Pressure will gradually build in north of the state later this week and on into the weekend. This will cause an increase in trade winds speeds across the area. Also a drier air mass has spread in from the east, resulting in less humid conditions over the next few days. Ridging aloft will keep the air mass rather stable. The end result will be for abundant sunshine over most leeward locations, with clouds and light passing showers for some windward and mountain locations. Daytime heating will also cause clouds to build up over the Kona and Kau slopes each afternoon…with showers a possibility.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Relatively dry and stable trade wind weather will prevail through Friday…with a more showery trade wind pattern expected this weekend into early next week. As we head into the weekend and on into early next week, an upper level low currently centered far to the east of the area will move westward. Models show the center of it passing by just to the north of the state during the weekend. However, it will likely be close enough to cause a less stable air mass across the area. This, along with an increase in moisture availability, will likely cause an increase in shower activity especially for windward areas. This moisture source will be associated with what is now former tropical cyclone Georgette. The trade winds will be sufficiently strong to cause some showers to possibly reach some leeward locations.
Marine environment details: High pressure far northeast of the state will strengthen and shift westward, keeping trade winds breezy across the area…with this wind field expanding tonight. A small craft advisory is currently in effect for a somewhat larger than usual for the summer season, a sign of the stronger gradient across the islands. The advisory may need to be expanded to additional areas Thursday as the high strengthens.
Breezy trade winds will result in choppy surf along east facing shores, but surf heights are expected to remain below advisory levels. There will also be a series of small southerly swells through the weekend and into next week.
Makena Beach…Maui
World-wide tropical cyclone activity
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
1.) A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms about 400 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development early next week when the system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Frank remains active…located about 920 west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
>>> Here’s a satellite image showing both Tropical Depression Frank and the area of disturbed weather described below
1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear increasingly conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week…while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Rainforest greener during ‘dry’ season – Although the Amazon Jungle may appear to be perpetually green, a University of Illinois researcher believes there are actually seasonal differences of photosynthesis, with more occurring during the dry season and less during the wet season. Understanding how a rainforest that occupies 2.7 million square miles of South America functions is crucial to the future health of the entire planet.
“With the potential negative effects of climate change, one key question we are trying to answer in the study of tropical ecology is how a tropical forest responds during a long-term drought,” says Kaiyu Guan, an environmental scientist at the University of Illinois. “If we don’t know their daily performance or their seasonal performance, what confidence can we have to predict the forests’ future 20 years, 30 years, or longer?”
Analyzing data from several sources, including individual leaves, camera data from towers above the leaf canopy, and decadal long satellite images, Guan and his colleagues measured the photosynthesis rate over the landscape. Photosynthesis — the process green plants use to convert energy from the sun that plants use to grow — from tropical forests, plays a huge role in determining global atmospheric CO2 concentration, which is closely linked the global temperature and rate of climate change.
“Bringing all of the data together, we find that the dry season in the Amazon has increased photosynthesis,” says Guan. “There may be less photosynthesis in the wet season because of the cloud cover which limits the amount of light the plants can use.”
Guan explains that understanding the seasonality of photosynthesis can help scientists assess whether or not the Amazon is under stress and how it handles and recovers from stress.
“During the dry season, you would think that the plants would be water stressed and photosynthesis would decrease, but looking at multiple sources of data over the years we find that the plants are not stressed because there is ground water carried over from the previous year,” he says.
It does not appear to be just the quantity of leaves driving the higher photosynthesis during the dry season. Guan and his collaborators believe it is actually leaf quality which changes over leaf age that is at work.
“Leaf amount can only explain about 5 percent of all the photosynthesis variations, so what’s really going on? It’s the leaf quality. Putting it in a different way, when you are a baby, you aren’t very productive. When you become more mature, you’re more productive. Then, when you’re older, your productivity goes down again. It’s true for humans and it’s also true for plants. Leaves in tropical forests that are 3 or 4 months old are more productive. As you get to the end of the dry season, the leaves are aging and their productivity decreases again. So the combination of the leaf amount and the leaf quality together can satisfactorily explain the pattern,” Guan says.
Guan cautions that if the forest experiences several droughts, the carryover of water is depleted — the tropical forest responds to the climate.
“The rainforest also absorbs the majority of carbon,” Guan says. “It’s the engine that drives the carbon cycle for the whole world, which makes it important when we discuss climate changes. Global warming is dependent upon the atmospheric CO2 concentration, so we need to care about carbon.
“Most of the climate models are showing a drying down trend in tropical forests, with a longer dry season. That’s a cause for concern for the future of the Amazon,” Guan says. “If we neglect it, it can have consequences around the globe. We need to recognize the importance of this rainforest pattern in which our entire global ecosystem functions. The healthiness of these systems is highly relevant for human beings.”
In addition to being an assistant professor in ecohydrology and geoinformatics in the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at U of I, Guan has a joint appointment as a Blue Waters professor affiliated with the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA).
Using the same satellite technology, Guan is currently looking at agricultural systems in tropical and temperate regions like the U.S. Corn Belt. “We’d like to build a satellite-based system to monitor the entire United States food productivity in order to predict the crop yield.”
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