Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the minimums Friday:

80 – 65  Lihue, Kauai
83 – 69  Honolulu, Oahu
81 – 62  Molokai AP
85 – 63  Kahului AP, Maui
85 – 70  Kailua Kona
86 – 66  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Friday evening:

0.01  Waialae, Kauai
0.08  Maunawili, Oahu
0.01  Molokai 1, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.05  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.77  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:

15  Mana, Kauai – NW
20  Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
24  Molokai – NE
18  Lanai – NE
23  Kahoolawe – NE
22  Maalaea Bay, Maui – N
22  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
A gale low pressure over the ocean to the northeast…
with a trailing cold front

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Scattered clouds…with high cirrus to the southwest –
and a fragmenting cold front north and northwest

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy across the state…some
cloudy areas

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
A few showers falling…mostly along the windward sides
looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…coasts and channel waters around
Maui County and the Alenuihaha Channel

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Returning trade winds into the weekend…reducing our volcanic haze. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find high pressure systems to the northeast and to the west-northwest of Hawaii…with an associated ridge moving into the area north of the islands. Finally, we see a low pressure system not far to our north-northeast, which is moving away northeastward…along with its trailing cold front. We’ll find moderately strong coming up through the weekend. An approaching cold front early next week will cause our winds to veer to the southeast and become lighter Monday…which in turn will bring volcanic haze back over us again then. The models go on to suggest gusty trade winds arriving around next Wednesday, in the wake of the frontal passage.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol…animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Generally fair weather…continuing through the weekend. The outlook shows mostly dry weather, with fairly routine windward showers at times through the upcoming weekend, as the trade winds strengthen. This is a result of a relatively dry and stable atmosphere overlying the islands for the time being. The leeward sides should have nice weather during this forecast period, with just a few showers at times. The models show a cold front approaching the islands early next week. This looks to be yet another of our many weak cold fronts, although it should have enough push to make it down through the state later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The gusty trade winds following in the front’s wake will carry some windward showers…our way for a couple days thereafter.

Marine environment details: The current northwest swell will continue to subside through the weekend, with surf expected to remain below advisory levels through the end of next week across north and west facing shores. Moderate trades returning over the weekend will generate choppy surf along east facing shores. Trade winds will surge again by the middle of next week as a stronger high moves in behind a passing cold front.

Surf along east facing shores will increase as a result of the strengthening trends, are expected to remain below advisory levels through the end of next week. A series of small background south-southwest swells will generate small surf along south facing shores through the period.

Strengthening trade winds over the weekend will bring advisory level winds to the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island Saturday through Sunday. Conditions will improve on Monday as a cold front approaches from the northwest, resulting in diminishing winds across the marine area. Strong north to northeast winds are expected to develop behind the cold front by the middle of next week, with small craft advisory level winds expected across a good portion of the marine area.

 

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Returning trade winds this weekend


Here in Maui County…It’s clear and calm in upcountry Kula early this Friday morning, along with thick volcanic haze…with an air temperature 45.8F degrees. The temperature at nearly the same time was 63 degrees down in Kahului under clear skies, 72 out in Hana, 63 at Maalaea Bay, and 46 atop the Haleakala summit. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe was 66 degrees, 63 at Lanai City, with 63 at the Molokai airport with clear skies. According to satellite imagery, it looks like most of Maui County is clear well before sunrise.

– It’s mid-afternoon here on Maui, with partly cloudy skies, and a ton of volcanic haze in the air. I was hoping that the trade winds would arrive early enough in the day, that they would whisk this vog away…but no such luck!

– Early Friday evening here on Maui, with finally the trade winds returning. However, it’s too early in their return to have the volcanic haze whisked away just yet. I do expect that by Saturday morning, at least hopefully, we should see much clearer skies in that regard. Looking down into the central valley, from here in upcountry Kula, it’s still majorly voggy before sunset.

Friday Evening Film – There’s all kinds of new films playing in our Kahului theaters now, several of which I’d like to eventually see. Tonight’s pick is called Eye In The Sky, starring Helen Mirren, Aaron Paul, Alan Rickman, Kim Engelbrecht, Barkhad Abdi, Iain Glen, and Phoebe Fox…among many others. The synopsis: Eye in the Sky stars Helen Mirren as Colonel Katherine Powell, a UK-based military officer in command of a top secret drone operation to capture terrorists in Kenya. Through remote surveillance and on-the-ground intel, Powell discovers the targets are planning a suicide bombing and the mission escalates from “capture” to “kill.” But as an American pilot is about to engage, a nine-year old girl enters the kill zone triggering an international dispute, reaching the highest levels of US and British government, over the moral, political, and personal implications of modern warfare.   

I saw this film with my friends Jeff, Svetlana, and a friend of hers from Germany, and we all thought highly of it, although her friend a bit less so. Let me start off by saying that this was a disturbing film, showing just how good the military is getting at killing. The film centered around how impressive the drone warfare is now. There was an even balance between sitting there in our seats sweating it out with such important decisions to be made…and thinking what you would do under these same situations. It all boiled down to this question: is the life of one, more important than the life of the many? There were no easy answers in this thriller, only difficult questions about following orders…and the cost of war. As for grades, Svetlana gave it an A, Jeff and I both came in at A minus, and the 4th person dropped it down to a B rating. If you have any interest in seeing a little of this film…here’s the trailer.

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Severe water stress likely in Asia by 2050 – Economic and population growth on top of climate change could lead to serious water shortages across a broad swath of Asia by the year 2050, a newly published study by MIT scientists has found.

The study deploys detailed modeling to produce what the researchers believe is a full range of scenarios involving water availability and use in the future. In the paper, the scientists conclude there is a “high risk of severe water stress” in much of an area that is home to roughly half the world’s population.

Having run a large number of simulations of future scenarios, the researchers find that the median amounts of projected growth and climate change in the next 35 years in Asia would lead to about 1 billion more people becoming “water-stressed” compared to today.

And while climate change is expected to have serious effects on the water supply in many parts of the world, the study underscores the extent to which industrial expansion and population growth may by themselves exacerbate water-access problems.

“It’s not just a climate change issue,” says Adam Schlosser, a senior research scientist and deputy director at MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and a co-author of the study. “We simply cannot ignore that economic and population growth in society can have a very strong influence on our demand for resources and how we manage them. And climate, on top of that, can lead to substantial magnifications to those stresses.”

The paper, “Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia,” is being published in the journal PLOS One. The lead author is Charles Fant, a researcher at the Joint Program. The other co-authors are Schlosser; Xiang Gao and Kenneth Strzepek, who are also researchers at the Joint Program; and John Reilly, a co-director of the Joint Program who is a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

Teasing out human and environmental factors

To conduct the study, the scientists built upon an existing model developed previously at MIT, the Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM), which contains probabilistic projections of population growth, economic expansion, climate, and carbon emissions from human activity. They then linked the IGSM model to detailed models of water use for a large portion of Asia encompassing China, India, and many smaller nations.

The scientists then ran an extensive series of repeated projections using varying conditions. In what they call the “Just Growth” scenario, they held climate conditions constant and evaluated the effects of economic and population growth on the water supply. In an alternate “Just Climate” scenario, the scientists held growth constant and evaluated climate-change effects alone. And in a “Climate and Growth” scenario, they studied the impact of rising economic activity, growing populations, and climate change.

Approaching it this way gave the researchers a “unique ability to tease out the human [economic] and environmental” factors leading to water shortages and to assess their relative significance, Schlosser says.

This kind of modeling also allowed the group to assess some of the particular factors that affect the different countries in the region to varying extents.

“For China, it looks like industrial growth [has the greatest impact] as people get wealthier,” says Fant. “In India, population growth has a huge effect. It varies by region.”

The researchers also emphasize that evaluating the future of any area’s water supply is not as simple as adding the effects of economic growth and climate change, and it depends on the networked water supply into and out of that area. The model uses a network of water basins, and as Schlosser notes, “What happens upstream affects downstream basins.” If climate change lowers the amount of rainfall near upstream basins while the population grows everywhere, then basins farther away from the initial water shortage would be affected more acutely.

Future research directions

Other scholars who have examined the work say it makes a valuable contribution to the field.

“They’re looking at a really important issue for the world,” says Channing Arndt, an agricultural economist at the United Nations’ World Institute for Development Economics Research, who thinks that the basic finding of the study “makes sense.”

Arndt also believes that the ambitious scope of the study, and the way it evaluates the effects of climate change as well as economic and population growth, is a worthwhile approach. “Doing it in this integrated way is the right way to go about it,” he adds.

The research team is continuing to work on related projects, including one on the effects of mitigation on water shortages. While those studies are not finished, the researchers say that changing water-use practices can have significant effects.

“We are assessing the extent to which climate mitigation and adaptation practices — such as more efficient irrigation technologies — can reduce the future risk of nations under high water stress,” Schlosser says. “Our preliminary findings indicate strong cases for effective actions and measures to reduce risk.”

The researchers say they will continue to look at ways of fine-tuning their modeling in order to refine their likelihood estimates of significant water shortages in the future.

“The emphasis in this work was to consider the whole range of plausible outcomes,” Schlosser says. “We consider this an important step in our ability to identify the sources of changing risk and large-scale solutions to risk reduction.”