Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the minimums Monday:

78 – 59  Lihue, Kauai
81 – 65  Honolulu, Oahu
77 – 64  Molokai AP
79 – 66  Kahului AP, Maui
82 – 67  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Monday evening:

0.41  Kokee, Kauai
0.23  Kawailoa, Oahu
0.06  Molokai 1, Molokai
0.03  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.39  Hana AP, Maui
0.28  Laupahoehoe, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

21  Puu Opae, Kauai – NW
23  Bellows, Oahu – NE
12  Molokai – NE
18  Lanai – NE
21  Kahaloowe – NW
10  Kaupo Gap, Maui – SE
18  Upolu AP, Big Island – N

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Two deep storms are spinning well north of Hawaii…with the
next cold front coming in our direction to the northwest

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Large area of thunderstorms to the southwest of Hawaii…
with the next weak cold front arriving later Wednesday

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Northeast to southwest fragmenting cold front has moved past
the Big Island…although its residual clouds cover many parts
of the islands from Oahu down through the Big Island

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Minor showers locally…mostly over parts of Maui County
and the Big Island – looping radar image


High Surf Warning…along north and west shores of Kauai, Oahu
and Molokai, and north shores of Maui and the Big Island

High Surf Advisory…along west shores of Maui and the Big Island
and east shores of Oahu

Small Craft Advisory…coasts and channels statewide

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Light and cool northerly winds over the next few days Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find a high pressure system far northeast and far west-northwest of Hawaii. In addition, there’s a major storm low pressure system to the north with a second well northwest. The storm to the north of us has sent the recent cold front through the islands. Our winds will turn cool and lighter from the north, in the wake of the front’s passage…followed by light breezes into the middle of the week. A second cold front should try and push through the island chain Thursday, although its still not clear about how far it will get. The latest models are showing moderate to strong trade winds arriving in its wake during the second half of the week. Looking even further ahead, yet another cold front may arrive next Monday, with possible gusty south to southwest kona winds preceding it, with a blast of chilly winter weather into the middle of next week in its wake.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol…animated graphic – showing vog forecast

A quickly fragmenting cold has moved through the state…bringing a few showers. These minor showers will stick around as the current cold front has finished its journey across the islands now. There will be a few showers, although most of it will be on the light side, with leftover scattered clouds over islands in places. Most of whatever few showers that are left behind will fall along the windward coasts and slopes. Cooler and generally drier weather will stick around into mid-week…followed by another weak cold front late Wednesday into Thursday. It’s not yet clear how far into the state this next cold front will make it, probably stalling over the central islands Thursday. The returning trade winds in the wake of this second cold front will bring a few windward showers…although not all that many are expected into the weekend. The latest models are now showing a potentially rather dynamic cold front arriving early next week – stay tuned.

Special Surf Statement: A very large high surf warning level northwest swell has impacted the state today, which will lower gradually Tuesday into Wednesday. The full moon will cause high astronomical tide, especially during the early morning tide cycle Tuesday. Swell heights reached near 22-28 feet (45 to 55 foot wave faces), so coastal run was a definite issue locally today…with many road closures and other problems. This swell will gradually lower into mid-week. In addition, there will be harbor surges along exposed north and west facing shores…mariners should use extreme caution when entering and leaving port!

Another very large warning level northwest swell is expected to arrive Wednesday night, peak on Thursday, then lower gradually Friday into Saturday. Wave heights are expected to be similar to the current northwest swell, and will again make for very dangerous conditions along our north and west facing shores. Please use extreme caution when going near our exposed beaches, and then again Thursday into early in the weekend!

http://petethomas.typepad.com/.a/6a0120a77b966b970b01a73d5e76e3970d-pi


Here in Maui County…It’s clear to cloudy early this Monday morning…under a near full moon. Here in upcountry Kula we have an air temperature of 47.8F degrees well before sunrise. The temperature at near the same time was 69 degrees down in Kahului, 68 out in Hana, 66 at Maalaea Bay, and 41 degrees up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe was 64 degrees, 62 at Lanai City, with 68 at the Molokai airport. / 720am, skies have turned mostly clear, as the cold front continues to fall apart…along with quite a bit of haze. / Now at 825am, skies have quickly become more cloudy again…especially along he windward sides.

– It’s early afternoon, under thin fog and cloudy skies here in Kula, with a cool breeze blowing in from the north. I can see muted sunshine down in the central valley, along with what looks like haze from here. My view is limited otherwise, as the clouds coming in now, in the wake of the recent cold front…is cutting off my sight around the rest of the islands here in Maui County. / 305pm here in upcountry Maui under cloudy and cool conditions, with a light northerly breeze. The air temperature at my Kula weather tower has dropped from the lower 70’s early today, to a cooler 67.6 degrees now. At the same time, it was a warmer 77 down in Kahului under mostly sunny conditions…and also mostly sunny with 75 degrees at Kapalua on the upper west side. / 415pm 64 degrees, light drizzle and fog

– Early evening, with very hazy conditions, and varying amounts of clouds. The northerly breezes are a bit chilly, and if the clouds clear overnight, will make way for a cool Tuesday morning locally.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean:


Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston) remains active in the Southwest Pacific Ocean, located 303 NM west-southwest of Suva, Fiji, with sustained winds of 81 mph…with gusts to 98 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: For Russian Farmers, Climate Change Is Nyet So Great – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says last month was the warmest January on record. That sets off alarm bells for climate scientists, but for the average person living in a northern climate, it might not sound so bad.

That’s what many people are saying these days in Russia, where the expected icy winter has failed to materialize this year – to widespread joy. Of course, any climate scientist will tell you that an unusually warm month — or even a whole warm winter — doesn’t mean much. It’s the long-term trend that counts.

But that’s not how it appears to the popular imagination, says George Safonov, who heads the Center for Environmental and Natural Resource Economics at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. He says there’s a big temptation in northern countries to believe that warmer weather can bring economic opportunities, such as improving conditions for farming.

“Before 2010, we had a rising harvest rate for crops, and that was explained as a very positive impact of climate change,” he says. “It was not easy to convince people that this is not correct.”

The problem, Safonov says, is that while warmer weather might open up more land in cold regions such as Siberia, it’s already causing havoc on existing farmland in the south.

Some of Russia’s most productive farmland, the fertile steppes around Rostov-on-Don, has been facing a series of droughts.

“We had one-third of all harvests lost in 2010, one-fourth of all crops lost in 2012. And if you calculate, that was about $12 -$15 billion damage,” he says. In other words, a huge loss for Russian farmers.

We went to the Rostov region to see what farmers are doing about all this.

There’s nothing growing there now, but driving through the miles of plowed fields, you can see why this area is called the breadbasket of Russia.

The writer Anton Chekhov said it was so fertile, you could poke a stick into the ground and it would take root and grow.

Vladimir Dvornik runs an agricultural cooperative called Progress, a former Soviet collective farm. He says he and his fellow growers have had to change their crops to deal with drier conditions.

“We gave up growing some kinds of grain, soy and some vegetables, like peppers and tomatoes,” Dvornik says. Now, he says he has switched to winter wheat and other crops that do well in drier weather.

He says it’s not a catastrophe for local growers, because they’ve had time to adapt, but drought could cause severe problems if it keeps getting warmer.

As for moving Russian farming to Siberia, Dvornik says that’s nonsense, and so does economist Safonov.

There’s no infrastructure for farming there, Safonov says, no expertise and no population of potential farm workers. Between losing farmland in the south, and starting large-scale farming in the north, the costs would be huge.

“Overall, I would estimate these potential losses as a few dozens of billions of dollars per year if we don’t do anything,” Safonov says.