Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the minimums Wednesday:

86 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 75  Molokai
91 – 79  Kahului AP, Maui – the record for Wednesday was 93…set back in 1949
90 – 77  Kailua Kona
93 – 74  Hilo, Hawaii – broke the record for Wednesday of 89…set back in 1987

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Wednesday evening:

0.53  Lihue, Kauai
0.32  Kamananui Stream, Oahu
1.32  Makapulapai, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.40  Kahoolawe
1.42  Kaupo Gap, Maui
3.10  Kiholo RG, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Wednesday evening:

15  Mana, Kauai – NW
17  Kuaokala, Oahu – SE
18  Molokai – SE
16  Lanai – SW
17  Kahoolawe – SSW
13  Hana, Maui – ESE
21  Kaupulehu, Big Island – SE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 Hurricane Ignacio remains active over the ocean to the
north of Hawaii, with Hurricane Jimena following further
behind to the east-southeast…while Tropical Depression 13E
 remains active towards Mexico / Typhoon Kilo is located far
to the west-northwest of Hawaii – in the western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP122015W.gif
Hurricane Ignacio…is moving away offshore to the
north of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Hurricane Ignacio still looks impressive, although
far enough offshore to not threaten the islands

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Hurricane Ignacio has a faint eye feature, as does Hurricane
Jimena and Typhoon Kilo…out in the western Pacific

Here’s a wind profile…so we can keep an eye on
these tropical cyclones


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers around…some heavy over the ocean
looping radar image

 

Tropical Storm Warning…offshore waters beyond 40 miles

High Surf Warning…east shores of all the islands – until
6pm Thursday

Small Craft Advisory…Big Island windward and southeast
waters, northwest Kauai waters, windward waters, Oahu
windward waters, and the Kaiwi Channel, Pailolo Channel,
Maui County windward waters…and Alenuihaha Channel

Flash Flood Watch…for all of Hawaii – through midnight

Flood Advisory…windward east Maui – until 830am

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds are coming in from the southwest through southeast…keeping muggy weather over us for several more days. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong high pressure system far to the north of the state. At the same time we see Tropical cyclones far to our west, much closer to our north, and further to the east-southeast…and well offshore from Mexico. Ignacio will move further offshore to the north of the islands from here on out. Our winds have now shifted around to an uncommon southerly direction, which should last through the rest of the work week at least, keeping unusually sultry conditions in place…uncomfortably so at times! We should see the return of light trade winds later Friday into the weekend, which will give slight relief from the hot and humid conditions. As we move into early next week, we may see the trade winds getting stopped in their trades again, as whatever is left of Jimena interrupts the flow then. This in turn will bring back very muggy conditions for several days…ouch.

Spotty heavy showers, mainly during the afternoon hours will fall over our area…although at other times locally too. We’ll see some showers…a few of which will be locally heavy with a possible thunderstorm. As Ignacio moves further away during the second half of the week, we could see showers continuing, as tropical moisture associated with Ignacio will linger in our island vicinity. As the winds will be quite light during this time, we may see heavy downpours over the interior sections of the islands during the afternoon and early evening hours…triggered by daytime heating of the islands. Showers will likely form over the warm ocean during the nights, and may spread onto the islands locally. This unsettled weather pattern will persist into Thursday, although the bulk of the showers may shift over to the Kauai and Oahu end of the state then. As the light trade winds try and get going later Friday into the weekend, we may see the return of a few windward showers…generally during the night and early morning hours. As the trades falter again early next week, we’ll get right back into a convective weather pattern, with locally heavy afternoon showers in the upcountry areas.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_feature/public/thumbnails/image/4stormsgoes9115labeled.jpg?itok=7BvHH3L8 Picture of all four tropical cyclones here in the Pacific Ocean now


Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) continues to move away from Hawaii. Here’s a satellite image, and the CPHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. Based on the most recent advisory, Ignacio has increased back into a hurricane with 75 mph winds near the center. It appears that a backing-off of the upper level wind shear has brought Ignacio back up into the big leagues. The forecast has this hurricane remaining active for the next 24 hours or so, and then its back to the minors, down to a tropical storm again, as it moves further and further north…into the colder waters of the north Pacific Ocean. Despite this increase in strength, there are no worries for the Hawaiian Islands.

A high surf warning remains in effect for east facing shores of most islands. The large surf is due to a mix of declining northerly swell from Ignacio and a building east swell from distant hurricane Jimena. The Ignacio swell remains largest across Kauai and Oahu and has dropped off significantly elsewhere. Near shore buoys showed a strong onset of the east swell this morning, but we have seen a temporary lull this afternoon as significant wave heights have dropped slightly. Surf along east facing shores will be at border line warning levels tonight, with an expected rise again tomorrow. The high surf warning currently goes through Thursday afternoon, and there won’t be any changes at this time, as buoy’s are watched tonight. Even if the swell drops slightly, east shore surf will remain elevated at, or near warning levels through at least the weekend, and likely into early next week.

Meanwhile, Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains in our central Pacific. This hurricane is maintaining sustained winds of near 105 mph as of the latest advisory. Here’s a satellite image, and the CPHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. This is still a strong hurricane, although will be gradually losing power as it heads north-northwestward. There continues to be an excellent chance that hurricane Jemina will stay away from our area…well to the east and and then northeast of the state later this weekend into next week.

Here on Maui…It’s 550am Wednesday morning, and it’s mostly clear to partly cloudy…with another good start to our day! Now at 605, I see a very large towering cumulus cloud, perhaps a thunderstorm, with the top part lighting up a wonderful pink color, over the Makena Beach area…or just offshore to the south of there. It’s interesting now, the Wailea, Kihei, and Lahaina areas, which are usually the leeward side of the island, are now the windward side…as the Kona winds are coming up from the deeper tropics. These southerly winds are carrying clouds and showers, while the typical windward sides, towards Kapalua, Paia, Haiku and such, are now the leeward areas…with cloud free skies over that way this morning. Everything is turned around now, what with tropical storm Ignacio moving by to our north! / Now at 830am here in Kula, it’s foggy, as I would imagine that Ulupalakua and Keokea are. I can see lots of sunshine down in the central valley, and I would guess that its totally clear and sunny along the windward sides…I lost my view with this fog. / At 1115am, the earlier fog has lifted, and I can see generally sunny skies over most of Maui…with clouds gathering over the mountains now.

– It’s now early afternoon, and just what I was proposing, about what would happen with the weather…is just the opposite now! So much for good ideas, and these days…the weather can and does turn on a dime, putting me in my place in no time at all. Geez, all the clouds are over on the windward sides, and the leeward sides are all sunny, despite the south winds that are still very active. Hmmm, I’m left scratching my head, and from the looks of things, waiting to see a few showers falling here in Kula before too long. I can still see those vertically advanced cumulus clouds popping-up all over the place, telling me that the atmosphere has very little inversion, if any at all. I’m going to go have lunch now, give a call to my Mom, and I’ll be back with another report in no time. Lunch? Oh you’re wondering what I’ll be having? In a big bowl I’ll grate a whole fresh organic carrot, the same thing with half ah beet. I’ll throw in some brown rice, some grated organic cheese…and on top of all that, I’ll tear in a bunch of organic kale. I’ll top it with organic olive oil and tamari, then sprinkle toasted sesame seeds on top. This is my usual M-F lunch time meal. / 235pm here in Kula, and it is POURING! I mean it is coming down in buckets, and I just heard that over on the Big Island, in some areas, it’s the same way…with lots of lightning too. / At 323pm, there was our first big clap of thunder, and it seemed like it was over towards the north shore!

– It’s almost 6pm, and its cloudy with a little fog around the edges up here in Kula, although I can see at least some sunshine at lower elevations. It’s interesting how Ignacio has risen back to life as a hurricane, at least for the next 24 hours or so. It’s still destined to push into the middle latitudes, and there it won’t find a friendly environment. Tropical cyclones like the tropics, and dislike running under strong wind aloft, and chilly sea surface temperatures below…no not in the least. So, it won’t be too long before hurricane Ignacio falls back into the tropical storm category, and then tropical depression, then tries to couple up with some cute cold front far to the north.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Wednesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 06L (Fred) remains active over the Atlantic Ocean, with sustained winds of 40 mph…and is located about 760miles west-northwest of Cape Verde Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.)  A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa later today. This system has some potential for slow development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm 14E (Kevin) remains active in the northeast Pacific, with sustained winds of 50 mph…and is located about 505 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

1.)   An area of disorganized cloudiness and showers is located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Strong upper-level winds over this system are expected to diminish over the weekend, which could allow for some development of the disturbance early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph well off of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Hurricane Ignacio remains active in the central Pacific, with sustained winds of 75 mph…and is located about 490 miles north-northwest of Lihue, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing

Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains active now in the central Pacific, with sustained winds of 110 mph…and is located about 720 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 03C (Kilo) remains active now in the western Pacific, with sustained winds of 92 mph, and is located about 702 miles east-northeast of Wake Island. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Climate Change will Cost Trillions – The economic ramifications of continuing the 20th century’s economic model, where unsustainable extraction and pollution conveys competitive advantage, are coming into sharp focus. Citigroup now projects a staggering $72 trillion global cost tied to man-made climate change during the 21st century. This is an almost incomprehensible scale of economic damage that is equal to losing four years of the United States’ entire gross domestic product.

The agriculture and food manufacturing industries also confront similar staggering economic consequences. The industrial fast food complex is directly tied to a global obesity and diabetes epidemic that now costs $2 trillion annually, or almost 3 percent of world gross domestic product. If this cost remains constant it will represent $170 trillion in economic cost through the rest of the 21st century.

These staggering economic costs don’t even take into account human suffering and premature death. A telling example is that 4,000 people per day, or 1.6 million per year, are estimated to die prematurely in China due to air pollution. This is a morbidity population that is 33 percent larger than the entire population of San Diego. In terms of the morbidity rate tied to our food system, in the U.S. alone over 75,000 people die each year due to diabetes.

Consumers, markets, politics and sustainable economics

The scale of the numbers tied to unsustainable human and environmental impacts are now too large to be wrong or ignored. Continued purchases of fossil fuels in the quantities now being consumed is an exceedingly poor economic decision. Health research now documents that sugary drinks are the 21st century’s tobacco, in terms of negative human health and cost consequences. The question is why consumers and the political system are comparatively unresponsive to numbers that can only be described as staggering.

The answer is based on the distinction between traditional economics and behavioral economics. Traditional economics is based on the concept of rational consumers and markets. It assumes that people will not borrow more than they can pay back and that lenders will not optimize short-term profits by aggressively promoting high risk, highly leveraged loans. Based on these assumptions, traditional economics would not forecast the 2007-2008 Great Recession. But it did happen because people and markets are not rational. The study of behavioral economics is based on the assumption that people and markets make decisions that reward themselves in the short term by ignoring or grossly underestimating long-term consequences until they become too large to ignore any longer.

The irrational consumer, market and voter now define our economy. For example, it is political suicide to propose raising pump prices to discourage the scale of fossil fuel consumption that is projected to create $72 trillion of climate change costs. Raising gasoline prices was also political suicide in 1974 when it was proposed as a solution to an OPEC oil embargo and continued entanglement in Middle Eastern wars. Imagine our national history if we had the economic will to accept higher pump prices as a cost alternative to Middle Eastern wars and pollution.

Another example is the attempt to regulate sugary drink consumption through public policy, taxes or both. Politically, such actions garner consumer and political responses that appear tantamount to a “live free or die” defense of the U.S. Constitution. But public policy designed to limit consumption of sugary drinks to reduce obesity levels is proving to work in Mexico, where a 10 percent tax on soda generated a 6 percent drop in first-year consumption. The economics appear compelling. Taxing sugary drinks will reduce consumption, and reduced consumption is the solution to reducing the staggering cost of obesity and diabetes. Fundamentally the consumer and political issue is not knowing what to do but rather having the consumer and political will to act on behalf of our economic, human health and environmental long-term interests.

The implications of adopting sustainable economics


The sobering reality is that issues like removing lead from gasoline, mandating automobile seat belts and limiting tobacco sales have historically taken approximately 50 years to move from initial activism for change to the adoption of change. Applying this same time-scale to the issues of climate change and obesity would create staggering losses in human health and economics.

We are now at a decision-making crossroads. The study of behavioral economics recognizes that consumers, politicians and businesses will make decisions resulting in substantial economic loss and human health costs based on a bias toward maintaining the status quo. It recognizes that consumers and voters will make decisions that reject science and statistics to protect strongly held beliefs. People and businesses will delay or procrastinate in taking actions that will advance their long-term welfare because change can be hard or discomforting. These behavioral economics factors are now threatening to generate staggering economic and human suffering damage.

In economics there is no such thing as a free lunch, and the pain from not adopting sustainability will eventually be overwhelming. This level of pain will generate mega-shifts in stock valuations, a restructuring of market share away from companies that gain competitive advantage through pollution, and the emergence of new companies that win customers by delivering price competitive and sustainable solutions.