Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the minimums Monday:
82 – 77 Lihue, Kauai
89 – 78 Honolulu, Oahu
87 – 75 Molokai
90 – 76 Kahului, Maui
87 – 80 Kailua Kona
87 – 72 Hilo, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Monday evening:
4.53 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.73 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.44 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.48 Haiku, Maui
1.99 Lower Kahuku, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:
22 Waimea Heights, Kauai – ENE
30 Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
32 Molokai – NE
36 Lanai – NE
35 Kahoolawe – NE
36 Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNW
29 Kamuela AP, Big Island – NE
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
We have post-tropical cyclone Iune here in the central Pacific –
there’s also tropical storm Enrique to our east-southeast…and
hurricane Dolores close to Mexico – both in the eastern Pacific
more information below
The central Pacific Ocean, with the cloud swirl of
former TC Iune fading to our southwest…with
the leading edge of a cloud area that decoupled
from tropical storm Enrique…well to our east
Looping version
Showery clouds slowly moving away to the west
and northwest…more showers arriving tonight
along our windward sides – Looping version
Showers mostly over the ocean…arriving over
the islands locally – looping radar image
Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Gusty trade winds, which will weaken a notch by mid-week…rebounding during the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a near 1029 millibar high pressure system to the north of the state. Meanwhile, there are tropical systems/troughs southwest, south and east-southeast of Hawaii…moving more or less westward. The remnants of former tropical cyclone Ela has opened up into a trough of low pressure west of Kauai, and is losing its influence here in the Aloha State. The trade winds have returned nicely, becoming quite strong over the next day or two, although will ease up some Wednesday for a few days…before trying to accelerate again during the weekend.
We have a trade wind weather pattern going on now, with varying amounts of showers through the next week…mostly along windward sides. There appears to be another area of showery clouds upstream, which will take aim on our windward sides tonight into Tuesday morning. We should see drier weather arriving later Tuesday through Thursday, with just a few windward biased showers at times…mostly during the nights. The computer models continue to suggest we’ll see another increase in tropical showers towards the end of this work week, into the weekend…stay tuned. I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Here on Maui…it’s 545am Monday morning, with mostly cloudy conditions over the the island…along with lots of showers locally. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was a relatively warm 63.9 degrees, while it was 77 down at the Kahului airport, 75 out in Hana…and 50 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at near the same time.
– We’re into the late afternoon now, at 415pm here in upcountry Kula. It’s breezy, although very warm too, with a temperature in the lower 80’s. At the same time, more or less, it was 88 degrees down in Kahului, 86 over at Kapalua, and 84 out in Hana…while a cooler 57 up atop the Haleakala summit. It’s partly cloudy in general, with the sunniest areas near the beaches. both windward and leeward.
– It’s now 710pm here in upcountry Kula, with partly cloudy skies, and not a drop of moisture falling from the sky today. At sunset, there are some high cirrus clouds to our north, which tried to light up into a nice orange color, which made for a nice end of the day treat. I expect some showers to arrive along our windward sides tonight into the morning, with the leeward sides remaining totally dry in contrast.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Storm Claudette remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located 250 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Here’s a graphical track map of this system.
Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this tropical storm…along with a satellite image
>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane 05E (Dolores) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean, located 250 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Here’s a graphical track map of this strengthening system.
Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this hurricane…along with a satellite image
Tropical Storm 06E (Enrique) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean, located 1315 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s a graphical track map of system.
Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this tropical storm…along with a satellite image
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones
1.) A remnant low associated with former tropical storm Iune was located about 800 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Although isolated thunderstorms still developed around this feature, environmental conditions likely will prevent it from organizing significantly.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent
Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:
Typhoon 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwest Pacific…located about 637 NM south-southeast of Iwakuni, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the computer model is showing.
Typhoon 1C (Halola) remains active…located about 413 NM east-southeast of Wake Island. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone. Here’s what the Navy computer model is showing.
>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Winter is coming: Earth awaits ‘mini ice age’ in 15 years, solar cycle study suggests – Earth is facing the prospect of a ‘mini ice age’ this century, with our sun’s activity projected to fall 60 percent in the 2030s, British astrophysicists say, based on the results of new research that they claim allows exact predictions of solar cycles
Our planet is just 15 years from a new ‘mini ice age’ that could cause extremely cold winters characterized by the freezing of normally ice-free rivers as well as by year-round snow fields in areas that have never witnessed such climate conditions before, a group of astrophysicists claim.
The scientists could draw such a conclusion based on a new model of the sun’s activity that reportedly enables the researchers to make “extremely accurate predictions” of changes in solar activity.
Although, the fact that the sun’s activity varies within a 10-12 year long cycles was first discovered almost two centuries ago, in 1843, all the previously existing explanatory models failed to fully explain the fluctuations with each cycle as well as between the cycles.
Until now, the astrophysicists thought that the variations of the solar activity depended on the dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep inside the sun.
The latest study conducted by a research team from Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, and led by Professor Valentina Zharkova demonstrated that the variations in the Sun’s activity are caused by two dynamo processes – one deep in the convection zone of the sun and one near its surface.
The research team analyzed three solar activity cycles that cover the period from 1976 to 2008 studying magnetic field activity of the sun during this time by using a technique called principal component analysis of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California.
The scientists discovered magnetic waves in two different layers of the Solar interior that “fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun.”
“We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time,” said Professor Zharkova.
Later, they also compared their findings concerning the intensity of the Sun’s activity with each year’s data on the average number of sunspots – a strong indicator of solar activity.
As a result, the team managed to create a very accurate model of predicting the solar activity fluctuations.
“Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent,” said Zharkova.
The study findings were presented at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno on July 9, and published in the Royal Astronomical Society papers.
The model demonstrates that solar activity will fall by 60 percent by 2030 as the magnetic waves inside the Sun will become increasingly more de-synchronized during the next two cycles, especially during cycle 26, which covers the decade between 2030 and 2040.
“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other,” Professor Zharkova said.
“Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago,” she added.
The Maunder minimum is a name of a period between 1645 and 1715 characterized by prolonged low solar activity as well as by extremely cold winters in Europe and North America as it also correlates with a climatic period between 1550 and 1850 called the ‘Little Ice Age.’
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