Hawaiian Islands Weather details & Aloha paragraphs / June 10-11, 2012

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday:

Lihue, Kauai –                      83   
Honolulu airport, Oahu –   85  (Record high for Sunday / 93 – 1996)
Kaneohe, Oahu –                  M
Molokai airport –                  83
Kahului airport, Maui –         84  
Kona airport –                     82
Hilo airport, Hawaii –            81

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Sunday evening:

Honolulu, Oahu – 82
Molokai airport – 77

Haleakala Crater –  M (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea –         46 (near 13,800 feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions. Here's the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui…although this webcam is not always working correctly.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information (once the season begins June 1) for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.  Here's a tropical cyclone tracking map for the eastern and central Pacific.

 Aloha Paragraphs

 

   Moderate trade winds, becoming lighter Monday and
Tuesday through the rest of the week…along with a
few passing windward showers, and localized showers
along the leeward slopes during the afternoon hours

As this weather map shows, we have a large near 1029 millibar high pressure system far to the northeast of the islands. At the same time, there are two low pressure systems far to our north, with an associated cold front pushing a ridge of high pressure closer to Kauai. Our local winds will continue to be from the trade wind direction, remaining active through the weekend…although becoming lighter into the holiday on Monday. 

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Sunday evening:

22                Port Allen, Kauai – ENE 
31                Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
30                Molokai – NE 
31                Kahoolawe – ENE
36                Kahului, Maui – NE
32                Lanai – NE
31                Puu Mali, Big Island – NE

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean.  Here's the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image…and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands. 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Sunday evening:
 
0.76               Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.30               Kahuku trng, Oahu
0.00               Molokai
0.00               Lanai
0.00               Kahoolawe
0.30               Puu Kukui, Maui
1.19               Kawainui Stream, Big Island  

Sunset Commentary:  The trade winds will remain active…although gradually dropping a notch in strength as we get into the new week…perhaps even turning southeast with time. We'll find just a few showers, restricted to the windward sides for the most part, with just a few elsewhere. Looking a bit further ahead, an upper level trough of low pressure will edge into our area from the east, which will potentially bring a few additional showers for several days. These showers will spread themselves along the windward sides at night, and along the leeward upcountry slopes during the afternoon hours. The trade winds are expected to strengthen right after next weekend, bringing back a more normal trade wind weather pattern then.

I went to see a new film this past Friday evening, one that I'd been looking forward to for a while. It was called Snow White & The Huntsman, starring Kristen Stewart, Chris Hemsworth, Charlize Theron, and Sam Claflin…among many others. The synopsis: in the epic action-adventure Snow White and the Huntsman, Kristen Stewart plays the only person in the land fairer than the evil queen (Charlize Theron) out to destroy her. But what the wicked ruler never imagined is that the young woman threatening her reign has been training in the art of war with a huntsman (Chris Hemsworth) dispatched to kill her. Sam Claflin joins the cast as the prince long enchanted by Snow White's beauty and power. Looking at the trailer, it certainly suggested strongly that this film was going off the deep end…and that it did! I considered this film very entertaining, both for its large scope, and its fine details. The two leading ladies of course were very beautiful, while the male stars were handsome as would be expected. If large action style films are your thing, then don't miss this one. If on the other hand, you would have a difficult time sitting through such an epic story, with all that fighting and such, give it a pass. I am going to give Snow White & the Huntsman a B+ grade, as it met my expectations and then some. The online critics weren't so generous with their praise, and admittedly the ending was a tad weak in my opinion, although overall…I went away from the theater very satisfied.

Here in Kula, Maui at 515pm, it was partly cloudy with light winds…and an air temperature of 75.7F degrees.  As this satellite image shows, those high cirrus clouds (those brighter white ones) remain just south of the Big Island. Otherwise, there are generally stable looking low clouds upstream of the islands. Meanwhile the trade winds will continue blowing, although gradually become lighter soon. As a ridge of high pressure gets closer to Kauai, pushed there by a late season cold front to our northwest, our winds will become lighter. This unusually light wind regime will last most of, or perhaps all of the new week. The computer models are suggesting that they will surge again after the upcoming weekend. This lighter wind event will move us into a modified convective weather pattern. This would find clear and slightly cooler than normal early mornings, with daytime sea breezes along our leeward sides, sending clouds into the upcountry areas during the afternoon hours, leading to localized showers. The windward sides too will see a few showers falling there, although generally during the night and early morning hours. If the winds clock all the way around to the southeast, with time, we could end up seeing at least some volcanic haze drifting up over parts of the smaller islands, issuing from the vents on the Big Island. I'll be back Monday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Sunday night wherever you're spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

[World-wide tropical cyclone activity:]

Central Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific Ocean: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…50 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones  

South Indian Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Interesting: Forests in the Amazon Basin are expected to be less vulnerable to wildfires this year, according to the first forecast from a new fire severity model developed by university and NASA researchers. Fire season across most of the Amazon rain forest typically begins in May, peaks in September and ends in January. The new model, which forecasts the fire season’s severity from three to nine months in advance, calls for an average or below-average fire season this year within 10 regions spanning three countries: Bolivia, Brazil and Peru.

“Tests of the model suggested that predictions should be possible before fire activity begins in earnest,” said Doug Morton, a co-investigator on the project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “This is the first year to stand behind the model and make an experimental forecast, taking a step from the scientific arena to share this information with forest managers, policy makers, and the public alike.”

The model was first described last year in the journal Science. Comparing nine years of fire data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite, with a record of sea surface temperatures from NOAA, scientists established a connection between sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and fire activity in South America.

“There will be fires in the Amazon Basin, but our model predictions suggest that they won’t be as likely in 2012 as in some previous years,” said Jim Randerson of the University of California, Irvine, and principal investigator on the research project. Specifically, sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific and North Atlantic are currently cooler than normal.

Cool sea surface temperatures change patterns of atmospheric circulation and increase rainfall across the southern Amazon in the months leading up to the fire season. “We believe the precipitation pattern during the end of the wet season is very important because this is when soils are replenished with water,” said Yang Chen of UC Irvine.

“If sea surface temperatures are higher, there is reduced precipitation across most of the region, leaving soils with less water to start the dry season.” Without sufficient water to be transported from the soil to the atmosphere by trees, humidity decreases and vegetation is more likely to burn. Such was the case in 2010, when above-average sea surface temperatures and drought led to a severe fire season.

In 2011, conditions shifted and cooler sea surface temperatures and sufficient rainfall resulted in fewer fires, similar to the forecast for 2012.Building on previous research, the researchers said there is potential to adapt and apply the model to other locations where large-scale climate conditions are a good indicator of the impending fire season, such as Indonesia and the United States.

Amazon forests, however, are particularly relevant because of their high biodiversity and vulnerability to fires. Amazon forests also store large amounts of carbon, and deforestation and wildfires release that carbon back to the atmosphere. Predictions of fire season severity may aid initiatives – such as the United Nation’s Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation program – to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from fires in tropical forests.

“The hope is that our experimental fire forecasting information will be useful to a broad range of communities to better understand the science, how these forests burn, and what predisposes forests to burning in some years and not others,” Morton said. “We now have the capability to make predictions, and the interest to share this information with groups who can factor it into their preparation for high fire seasons and management of the associated risks to forests and human health.”