Hawaiian Islands Weather details & Aloha paragraphs / December 31-January 1, 2012

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday:   

Lihue, Kauai –                   78
Honolulu airport, Oahu –     74
Kaneohe, Oahu –               77
Molokai airport –                76
Kahului airport, Maui –        79  
Kona airport –                      84
Hilo airport, Hawaii –          78

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Saturday evening:

Kailua-kona – 80
Princeville, Kauai – 70

Haleakala Crater –  48 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea –         39 (near 13,800 feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions. Here's the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui…which is working only sometimes lately.

 Aloha Paragraphs

Soft trade winds, just a few showers…high surf
advisory north and south shores Sunday
Happy New Year everyone!

As this weather map shows…we have a high pressure systems to the northwest and northeast, helping to push a weak cold front in our direction.  This frontal boundary has pushed our high pressure ridge closer to the islands now. The location of this high pressure ridge will make for light to moderately strong trade winds this weekend, becoming more moderately strong by the middle of the new week ahead. The winds across some sections of the state are running southeast to south at the time of this writing (over the open ocean at least)…bringing volcanic haze (vog) over some of the smaller islands.

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph), along with directions Saturday evening:

15                 Waimea Heights, Kauai – SW
27                    Makua Range, Oahu – NE
12                 Molokai – NE
24                 Kahoolawe
10                 Lipoa, Maui – NE
21                 Lanai – NW
23                 Kaloko-honokohau, Big Island – NW

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean Saturday evening.  Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we see large chunks of low level clouds around the islands. The leeward sides are mostly clear to partly cloudy, depending upon which island we're talking about. The windward sides are clear to partly cloudy as well, again depending upon the locations on each of the islands. We can use this looping satellite image to see towering cumulus and thunderstorms developing over the ocean far to the east-southeast of the islands. High cirrus clouds are evident to our north and northeast…moving along from west to east. At the same time, can see a dissipating cold frontal cloud band not far to our northwest and north. Checking out this looping radar image we see just a few showers over the ocean…coming into the islands locally.

Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday afternoon:

0.44                  Kilohana, Kauai
0.25               Wilson Tunnel, Oahu
0.03               Molokai
0.00               Lanai
0.00               Kahoolawe
0.01               Puu Kukui, Maui
0.02               Waikii, Big Island

Sunset Commentary:  The trade winds remained quite light in most areas today, and even shifted to the south and southeast locally. They will strengthen some tonight into Sunday. The winds have carried a bit of volcanic haze over Maui County, although as the trade winds increase some by tonight, this haze should be carried away. If the trade winds return earlier enough in the evening, they will help to ventilate at least some of the firecracker smoke that begins to collect…that's still a question. These light to moderately strong trade winds will blow on New Years Day, giving way to lighter winds again Monday and Tuesday. A new trade wind producing high pressure system will be in place to our north again by Wednesday…prompting breezy trade winds then through the end of the week.

As far as rainfall goes, there won’t be all that much, and the windward sides will receive the bulk of whatever few showers that are around. The overlying atmosphere has become slightly more shower prone now, as a trough of low pressure has developed. The combination of light winds and this trough, will lead to a few clouds in some areas, with a few showers falling here and there. There will be a few more showers being carried our way on Sunday, landing generally along our windward sides. A weak cold front is trying to make it down towards Kauai, but will stall before arriving. A second cold front will approach the state over the first couple of days of the new week ahead, although it's forecast to stall before reaching Kauai as well. Then, as the trade winds return on Wednesday, we'll likely see the windward shower activity increase a notch into next weekend. In other words, nothing of particular consequence expected in our rainfall department through the next week.

I went to see a new film Friday evening in Kahului, this one is called The Girl with the Dragon Tatto, starring Daniel Craig and Rooney Mara…among many others. The synopsis: a journalist and a brilliant hacker get tangled up in a dangerous mystery when they delve into the history of a powerful family. This film is getting high grades, with even the rotten tomatoes film rating website giving it a high 86% approval rating, out of a possible 100. This is suppose to be a powerful film, and I was slightly nervous about seeing it, although at the same time excited. As it turned out, it was an intense film, with no lack of violence. I didn't have to avert my eyes, but there were those times in the film that people got roughed up…but good! All and all however I greatly enjoyed this presentation, and I found it to be excellent! It's not for the faint of heart, absolutely not, although at the same time it was so very good, and well done, and yet so brutal at times too. I would be tempted to give it a full-on A grade, or at least an A-…somewhere in that range. Here's a trailer for this film.

Here in Kula, Maui at around 5pm HST, it was clear to partly cloudy, with a light breeze and hazy, with an air temperature of 66.4F degrees. Looking across the Central Valley towards the West Maui Mountains, I see volcanic haze. Not a terribly thick amount of this vog, but vog nonetheless. Things will clear out again after dark, just about the time that folks will begin celebrating the old year, and ringing in the new year. I have plans to visit a friend just down the mountain, a short five minute drive in fact. I'll be taking a good bottle of champagne, [Veuve Clicquot] down there with me, so I expect to have fun, hopefully like yourselves! I'll be back Sunday morning with your next new weather narrative. It has been a very good 2011 for this Maui weatherman, and I thank the Universe for supporting me on this great planet of ours. I trust that you had a good year too, and would like to wish you a very Happy New Year 2012! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting:  Anything that goes into the ocean will eventually either sink or float. Debris from the tsunami that devastated Japan in March could reach the United States as early as this winter, according to predictions by NOAA scientists. However, they warn there is still a large amount of uncertainty over exactly what is still floating, where it's located, where it will go, and when it will arrive.

Responders now have a challenging, if not impossible situation on their hands: How do you deal with debris that could now impact U.S. shores, but is difficult to find? Just another garbage wave to worry about but one that is not directly a result of man's bad habits.

A tsunami is a huge volume of moving seawater. These giant waves can travel for thousands of miles across the sea and still have enough energy and force to destroy buildings, trees, wildlife and people. If you throw a stone in a pond it will create a series of ripples.

A tsunami is just like those ripples but the disturbance that sets them moving is much greater than a small stone. It can be triggered by an undersea earthquake, landslide or volcanic eruption. In March 2011 an underwater earthquake triggered a tsunami which hit Japan’s north-east coast.

The earthquake was the most powerful ever recorded in Japan causing a 30 foot tsunami wave to hit the city of Sendai and further devastate several coastal communities. This created tons and tons of shattered city stuff. As the tsunami surge receded, it washed much of what was in the coastal inundation zone into the ocean.

Boats, pieces of smashed buildings, appliances, and plastic, metal, and rubber objects of all shapes and sizes washed into the water — either sinking near the shore or floating out to sea. The refuse formed initially large debris fields captured by satellite imagery and aerial photos of the coastal waters.

Nine months later, debris fields are no longer clearly visible. Winds and ocean currents scattered items in the massive North Pacific Ocean to the point where debris is no longer visible from satellite. Vessels regularly traveling the North Pacific have reported very few sightings.

Only two sightings have been clearly linked to the tsunami. Computer models run by NOAA and University of Hawaii researchers show some debris could pass near or wash ashore in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (in the Papahnaumokukea Marine National Monument) as early as this winter, approach the West Coast of the United States and Canada in 2013, and circle back to the main Hawaiian Islands in 2014 through 2016.

The worst-case scenario is boats and unmanageable concentrations of other heavy objects could wash ashore in sensitive areas, damage coral reefs, or interfere with navigation in Hawaii and along the U.S. West Coast. Best case? The debris will break up, disperse and eventually degrade and sink, sparing coastal areas but adding to deep sea sediment.

Debris will not go away completely, even in a best-case scenario. Marine debris is an ongoing problem for Hawaii and West Coast states whether or not there is a Tsunami. Garbage and other harmful items regularly wash up on these beaches, reefs and other coastal areas.

Interesting2: Access to freshwater resources has always been a critical need for human and all forms of life on Earth. With a world population estimated at just shy of 7 billion and growing, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization says agricultural production will need to increase 70% by 2050.

As agriculture takes up most of human water use, that’s going to put vastly greater demands and strains on our water resources at a time when climate change is changing temperature and precipitation levels and patterns in ways that cannot be predicted at local levels but are likely to make this even more difficult to achieve.

One thing that has been determined is that groundwater levels have dropped in many places around the world in the past nine years, including across key agricultural areas, such as southern Argentina, western Australia and the western US, according to a pair of studies of satellite gravity monitoring data conducted by researchers at the University of California Center for Hydrologic Modeling in Irvine, Science News reports.

The GRACE Project

Groundwater depletion is especially pronounced beneath parts of California, India, the Middle East and China. Besides showing that water is being pumped out of underground groundwater aquifers faster than it’s being replenished, the results raise concerns that farming in particular is the primary cause, according to the Science News report. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), conducted jointly by NASA and the German Aerospace Center, has been taking monthly snapshots of global groundwater used in the two studies since 2002.

GRACE data is especially useful in accumulating data across countries where governments do not maintain extensive networks of groundwater monitoring wells. While the US maintains an extensive nationwide network of such wells, countries, such as China, do not.

Nicknamed Tom and Jerry, GRACE’s two satellites are pulled apart and pushed together by variations in the gravitational pull of the areas of the earth they pass over. While mountains and other large concentrations of mass have large, steady impacts on earth’s gravitational pull on the areas where they’re found, water moves over time and creates small fluctuations that the two satellites sense.

Isolating groundwater changes

To isolate the effects of groundwater in particular, researchers have to subtract the effects of snow pack, rivers, lakes and soil moisture, the Science Times article explains. Doing so, they can detect changes in groundwater levels greater than ~0.4 inches over an area about the size of Illinois.

Results of analyzing the data obtained in the two UC Center studies shows that China’s been underestimating groundwater use. GRACE’s measurements indicate that water levels have been dropping 6 or 7 centimeters per year beneath the country’s northeast plains.

Short-term variability in climate is also taking its toll on groundwater levels. having suffered recent droughts, aquifers in Patagonia and the southeastern US now store less groundwater than they did in 2002.

Farming is almost certainly the largest contributing factor, however. Booming agriculture in northern India, takes some 18 cubic kilometers of water out of the ground every year, more than enough to fill 7 million Olympic-size swimming pools, according to Science News.

Farmers in California’s Central Valley, which accounts for nearly 1/6 of irrigated land in the entire country, pump nearly 4 cubic kilometers of water per year out from underground. The valley has been sinking for decades as more wells have been drilled and water pumped out, land subsidence that’s also been occurring and causing increasing concerns, and costly remediation efforts, in Mexico City.

Aquifers in arid and desert areas with fast-growing populations, such as the Middle East, are also being depleted. The “fossil water” that fell millions of years ago and is now stored in the Arabian aquifer beneath Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries is being pumped out faster than it’s being replenished.

Just how much water is there?

Climate change only makes the problem more acute, according to UC Center’s Famiglietti. Precipitation patterns are becoming more extreme, with the severity of droughts increasing. Wet areas are becoming wetters and dry areas drier, Science News reports, and that may accelerate groundwater depletion in some areas.

A big question remains unanswered, however, as hydrologists don’t really know just how large these aquifers are and just how much water is left in them. That’s because GRACE can only show changes in aquifer levels, not their total volume.

Yet while they lack reliable estimates for the total amount of groundwater stored in the world’s aquifers, it’s become clear to hydrologists studying them that water use has become unsustainable in many areas. Better irrigation systems would help reduce water usage, as could channeling water runoff into aquifers during wet periods.