Hawaiian Islands Weather details & Aloha paragraphs / November 29-30, 2011

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday:  

Lihue, Kauai –                   78
Honolulu airport, Oahu –   82   (record high for the date: 88F degrees in 1983)  
Kaneohe, Oahu –               77
Molokai airport –                77
Kahului airport, Maui          79 
Kona airport                      80
Hilo airport, Hawaii –          79

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Tuesday evening:

Honolulu, Oahu – 78
Kapalua, Maui – 72

Haleakala Crater – 50 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea –        43 (over 13,500 feet on the Big Island)

Here are the 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:

0.09     Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.12     Nuuanu Upper, Oahu
0.01     Molokai
0.00     Lanai
0.00     Kahoolawe
0.27     Puu Kukui, Maui
0.48     Kawainui Stream, Big Island

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,500 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions. The Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui just came back online, after being on the blink for several weeks.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.  Here's a tropical cyclone tracking map for the eastern and central Pacific.

 Aloha Paragraphs

  A few passing windward showers,
variable wind speeds and directions,
high and middle clouds at times
 

As this weather map shows, we find a strong near 1034 millibar high pressure system located far to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night. This high pressure cell has an elongated ridge of high pressure extending southwest from its center, into the area north and northwest of our islands.  At the same time, we see a near 1014 millibar low pressure system to the north-northwest of Kauai, moving northeast. This low has a cold front front running from its center southwest across the International Dateline…into the western Pacific. Finally, there's a trough of low pressure not far to the east of the islands, which is slowly migrating westward.

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph), along with directions Tuesday evening:

20                 Port Allen, Kauai – NE
22                 Makua Range, Oahu – NE
31                    Molokai – NE
25                 Kahoolawe – E
22                 Lipoa, Maui – NE
28                 Lanai – NE
29                 Kealakomo, Big Island – NE

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean early Tuesday night. Looking at this NOAA satellite picture we find that high and middle level cloudiness is located to the north, northeast, east through south of the state…as over the state in places too. We can use this looping satellite image to see considerable amount of thunderstorm activity far to our south over the ocean. At the same time we can see high cirrus clouds moving by to our east, and approaching to the northwest.  Checking out this looping radar image we see light showers falling locally over the ocean, moving into our windward sides here…especially Kauai and Oahu at the time of this writing.

Sunset Commentary:  There are several circumstances that will be influencing our local weather story through the rest of this week, none of which will be as wild as the strong and gusty winds that have occurred this past weekend into Monday. At the moment we have an area of high and middle level clouds moving across our local skies. These are curling around into the islands from a large swatch of these clouds to the south, east, and northeast of the Big Island. This looping satellite image shows this activity quite well.

At the same time we have another large area of high clouds approaching the Kauai end of the island chain. If we open up our view a bit more, but using this next satellite image, we can see this area coming our way. If we look closely, we can see the next weakening cold front edging this way behind those high clouds far to our northwest. Then, closer to the surface, at lower altitudes of the atmosphere, we see the lower level cumulus clouds moving along in our still brisk trade wind flow…bringing generally light showers to our windward sides.

There are times, such as these, that pointing out the current circumstances is easier than trying to exactly figure out the future ones…with a high degree of certainty that is. Nonetheless, we need to look ahead, and with that in mind, lets try and discern the likely outlook. The weak cold front noted above is expected to keep coming, and will bring showers to the Kauai and Oahu end of the chain between late Wednesday into early Friday. The computer models don’t show it making it to the eastern islands…and as a matter of fact have it pulling back towards the northwest by later Friday.

Meanwhile, we have this trough of low pressure to our east, which is migrating westward towards us too. This should bring the Big Island end of the chain some showers with time. The models don’t show it moving past Maui, and whether even Maui will see very much of this shower activity is still somewhat of a question. So, these are the most reliable prognostications at the moment, and as you can see…will bring some weather changes our way through Friday. There’s the chance that some of the trough’s showers may remain over the eastern islands into the early part of the upcoming weekend.

Here in Kihei, Maui at around 530pm Tuesday evening, skies were partly cloudy, with a mix of high, middle and lower level clouds blocking large parts of our Hawaiian skies before sunset. The high parts of this cloudiness should light up nicely in a little while, as they might again in the morning for sunrise. The trade winds are blowing a bit stronger than usual, and there is a tad bit of coolness to these breezes still. Looking at the maximum temperatures around the state today, at least at sea level, most of the maximum temperatures remained in the upper 70F's to near 80. This is actually a little on the cool side of normal, although way warmer than almost everywhere else in the northern hemisphere this time of year! One thing is certain, and that is we are deep into our autumn season, just about three weeks away from transitioning to early winter. Thus, our weather is more changeable, and cooler too. You folks that are coming to our islands soon on vacation shouldn't be freaking out about the word cool though, as I'm definitely using it in the tropical sense…you will find it toasty! ~~~ Kden as we say here in the islands [ok then], it's time for this Maui weatherman to take the drive back upcountry to Kula. It's been another very long day, one that has been a bit stressful, although as I'm fond of saying or thinking to myself…everyday is a good day. I'll be back early Wednesday morning with our next new weather narrative from paradise, I hope you have a great Tuesday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting: Warmer, drier summers and extreme weather events considered possible as the climate changes would be especially troublesome — possibly fatal — for walnut trees, according to research at Purdue University. Over five years, Douglass Jacobs, a professor of forestry and natural resources, and Martin-Michel Gauthier, a former doctoral student under Jacobs who is now a research scientist in the Ministry of Natural Resources in Quebec, studied the physiology of walnut trees, which are economically significant in Indiana for their lumber and veneer, and in other areas for their nuts.

They found that the trees are especially sensitive to particular climates. "Walnut is really restricted to sites not too wet or dry. It has an extremely narrow range," said Jacobs, whose findings were published in the December issue of Annals of Forest Science.

"We suspect and predict that climate change is going to have a real impact on walnuts. We may see some type of decline of the species." Specifically, walnuts would have difficulty tolerating droughts that could be associated with a changing climate.

"Changes in moisture could restrict its ability to survive without irrigation," Jacobs said. "Almost all climate change models predict that climates will become drier." Walnuts are also sensitive to cold, so much so that they have developed a defense mechanism against late frosts.

Jacobs said walnut trees don't begin sprouting leaves until almost a month after other trees in the spring. That defense mechanism could be compromised by extreme weather events associated with climate change scenarios. Late spring frosts after walnuts have developed leaves could kill trees.

"That, on top of the increase in temperatures, would be a problem for walnut," Gauthier said. "The trees would basically shut down." In California, more than 500,000 tons of walnuts were sold for more than $1 billion in 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In Indiana, black walnuts are prized for their wood. Charles Michler, project leader of Purdue's Hardwood Tree Improvement and Regeneration Center, said walnuts accounted for as much as 15 percent of the logs sold in Indiana at a value of about $11 million.

"Walnut is probably the most important species in the hardwood products industry today," Michler said. The center has a walnut breeding program that is attempting to identify trees that can be used in different climates, he said. One goal is to find walnuts that may be able to stand up to the heat or cold stresses that trees could be subject to in a changing climate.

The center is looking at seeds that come from mature trees to see if the seeds have attained defense mechanisms against changes already seen in climate. "That could be the strategy that trees have," Michler said. "The trees that are mature now may be affected by climate change, but the seeds they produce may be adapting through genetic changes."

Interesting2: This year is set to be the 10th warmest on record despite weather patterns which cool global temperatures, meteorologists say. Climate researchers said 2011 was near the top of records dating back to 1850, despite a "strong and persistent" La Nina weather system in the Pacific which tends to lead to lower temperatures across the world.

The World Meteorological Organization, which released its preliminary figures for the year on Tuesday as countries meet in Durban, South Africa, for the latest UN climate change talks, said 2011 was the warmest on record for a La Nina year. The organization put the global average temperature at 0.41C above the 1961-1990 average of 14C, making it the 10th warmest on record.

The 13 warmest years on record have all occurred in the 15 years between 1997 and 2011. The British Met Office and the University of East Anglia, which maintain one of the three records of global temperatures, said their figures put the year in 11th place.

Their records showed a continued long-term warming trend in the global climate. They reported that each decade since the 1950s has been warmer than the previous decade, and last year was one of warmest on record. In Australia, 2011 bucked the trend.

It was up to 1 below average in northern and central Australia, largely due to above-average cloudiness and heavy rain early in the year. Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the British Met Office, said that while 2011 has seen a very persistent and strong La Nina, global temperature is "likely higher than it was in the La Nina events in 2008 and 1999-2000, indicating a continuing warming trend combined with natural variability."

The global temperature figures come as scientists warned the latest evidence was showing that global warming appeared to be a greater, rather than lesser, problem. As negotiators meet in Durban to discuss efforts to tackle climate change, Brian Hoskins, director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, said: "There's no doubt that what the climate system feels is the total greenhouse gases we emit to the atmosphere, so unless countries can agree, it's very difficult to see how we can cap the total.

"That's why a global agreement is so important." The World Meteorological Organization said that France and Spain had their hottest January to October on record, while eastern China, the western US and southwestern Canada had below average temperatures.