Hawaiian Islands weather details & Aloha paragraphs / February 16-17, 2011

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday afternoon:

Lihue, Kauai –                   78
Honolulu airport, Oahu –     82
Kaneohe, Oahu –               80
Molokai airport –                83
Kahului airport, Maui –       86
Kona airport –                   83
Hilo airport, Hawaii –         80

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops…as of 5pm Wednesday evening:

Kahului, Maui –  82F
Hilo, Hawaii – 75

Haleakala Crater –     missing (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 37 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Wednesday evening:

0.14 Mount Waialeale, Kauai  
0.47 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.06 Molokai 
0.02 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.89 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.43 Waiakea Uka, Big Island

Marine Winds – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a strong 1039 millibar high pressure system far to our north. At the same time we find a 1003 millibar low pressure system to our northwest. Our winds will be east-southeast into Friday…locally quite strong and gusty.     

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with this Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Finally, here's a Looping IR satellite image, making viewable the clouds around the islands 24 hours a day. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image.

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two web cams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Here’s a tracking map covering both the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here. Of course, as we know, our hurricane season ends November 30th here in the central Pacific.

 Aloha Paragraphs

  High cirrus clouds, localized hazy…showers falling locally
 

Hawaii's winds will come out of the east-southeast generally, mostly in the light to moderately strong range…although locally stronger and gusty. This weather map shows a strong 1039 millibar high pressure system far to our north. Winds are coming in from the east-southeast now. This wind direction may bring back volcanic haze…after a modest respite Wednesday. A true trade wind flow, coming in from the east may reach the Big Island end of the chain towards the weekend, although it appears that the Kauai side may remain anchored in a flow more south of east into early next week. We’ll have to wait until the front to our west or northwest finally moves away, at which point our trade winds will fill in across the entire state. It’s still a question as to exactly when that will happen.

Winds will be generally light to moderate, although locally stronger…the following numbers represent the strongest gusts, along with directions Wednesday evening:

27 mph       Mana, Kauai – SE
21              Waianae Harbor, Oahu – SE
22              Molokai – E
35                Kahoolawe – E 
18              Kaupo Gap, Maui – E 
12              Lanai Airport – NNE
28              South Point, Big Island – NE

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our local skies Wednesday evening. This large University of Washington satellite image shows lots of clouds over the ocean to our west…associated with a low pressure system to the northwest. There is a cold front embedded in this mass of clouds…hidden from view by the higher level cloudiness. Looking at this NOAA satellite picture, we see those thick cirrus clouds coming in over our islands, although there are some thin spots in the overcast towards the Big Island. We can use this looping satellite image to see those streaks of cirrus arriving over the state, some of which are quite thick…which will filter and dim our sunshine during the days. We can also see the counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure system to the northwest of Hawaii, moving northward…soon to be out of this picture. Checking out this looping radar image, it shows that most of the showers are falling over the ocean, although at least some are coming in over our east to southeast sides…at the time of this writing.

There will be a few showers arriving, both along the east-southeast to east sides of the islands…and perhaps over and around the mountain in places too. As the east-southeast winds have remained locally quite gusty now, there should be a somewhat limited amount of those afternoon to early evening showers showing up in our upcountry sections on Thursday. As winds swing back around to the east-southeast, as the models suggest, we would continue to see a mildly convective weather pattern again by Thursday afternoon. There shouldn't be all that many showers around, although a few will continue to persist, falling in a light to moderately heavy fashion at times. A cold front will bring increased showers to the Kauai end of the chain later Thursday or Friday.

In sum: the high cirrus clouds continue to cascade over the islands, while the haze will remain a part of our reality too…along with a few showers.  The cold front is still expected to edge up close to Kauai as we get into Friday. This will likely increase the showers on Kauai, and perhaps on Oahu with time too. There remains no indication of the cold front being able to slide down towards Maui County…much less the Big Island. There may be prefrontal showers being drawn up over the Big Island end of the island chain eventually however. It appears that the high cirrus clouds will remain in our area for at least several more days. This will dim our sunshine during the days, although may provide colorful sunrise and sunsets at times.

~~~ Here in Kihei, Maui at around 540pm Wednesday evening, skies were partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, as they have been all day. Most of the showers that have fallen here on Maui, have been out along the southeast to east side of the island, around kaupo around to the windward side. Clouds are mostly on the dry side elsewhere, and will give the growing moon a muted look tonight. Thursday shouldn't be too much different than what we saw Wednesday, which wasn't all too bad. The vog was less dense, although we may see some thickening on Thursday. I'll be back early Thursday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Wednesday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting: Rising sea levels could threaten an average of 9 percent of the land within 180 U.S. coastal cities by 2100, according to new research led by University of Arizona scientists. The Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts will be particularly hard hit. Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, Fla., and Virginia Beach, Va. could lose more than 10 percent of their land area by 2100.

The research is the first analysis of vulnerability to sea-level rise that includes every U.S. coastal city in the lower 48 with a population of 50,000 or more. The latest scientific projections indicate that by 2100, the sea level will rise about 1 meter — or even more. One meter is about 3 feet. At the current rate of global warming, sea level is projected to continue rising after 2100 by as much as 1 meter per century.

"According to the most recent sea-level-rise science, that's where we're heading," said lead researcher Jeremy L. Weiss, a senior research specialist in the UA's department of geosciences. "Impacts from sea-level rise could be erosion, temporary flooding and permanent inundation." The coastal municipalities the team identified had 40.5 million people living in them, according to the 2000 U.S. Census.

Twenty of those cities have more than 300,000 inhabitants. Weiss and his colleagues examined how much land area from the 180 municipalities could be affected by 1 to 6 meters of sea-level rise. "With the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, the projections are that the global average temperature will be 8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than present by 2100," said Weiss, who is also a UA doctoral candidate in geosciences.

"That amount of warming will likely lock us into at least 4 to 6 meters of sea-level rise in subsequent centuries, because parts of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will slowly melt away like a block of ice on the sidewalk in the summertime." At 3 meters (almost 10 feet), on average more than 20 percent of land in those cities could be affected. Nine large cities, including Boston and New York, would have more than 10 percent of their current land area threatened.

By 6 meters (about 20 feet), about one-third of the land area in U.S. coastal cities could be affected. "Our work should help people plan with more certainty and to make decisions about what level of sea-level rise, and by implication, what level of global warming, is acceptable to their communities and neighbors," said co-author Jonathan T. Overpeck, a UA professor of geosciences and of atmospheric sciences and co-director of UA's Institute of the Environment.

Weiss, Overpeck and Ben Strauss of Climate Central in Princeton, N.J., are publishing their paper, "Implications of Recent Sea Level Rise Science for Low-Elevation Areas in Coastal Cities of the Conterminous U.S.A.," in Climatic Change Letters. Weiss and Overpeck had previously developed maps of how increases in sea level could affect the U.S. coastline. Strauss suggested adding the boundaries of municipalities to focus on how rising seas would affect coastal towns and cities.

For the detailed maps needed for the new project, the researchers turned to the National Elevation Dataset produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The NED provides a high-resolution digital database of elevations for the entire U.S. The high resolution let Weiss and his colleagues identify the elevation of a piece of land as small as 30 meters (about 100 feet) on a side — about the size of an average house lot.

The researchers used the USGS database to create detailed digital maps of the U.S. coast that delineate what areas could be affected by 1 meter to 6 meters of sea-level rise. The researchers also added the boundaries for all municipalities with more than 50,000 people according to the 2000 U.S. Census. To increase the accuracy of their maps, the team included all pieces of land that had a connection to the sea and excluded low-elevation areas that had no such connection.

Rising seas do not just affect oceanfront property — water moves inland along channels, creeks, inlets and adjacent low-lying areas. "Ours is the first national-scale data set that delineates these low-lying coastal areas for the entire lower 48 at this degree of spatial resolution," Weiss said. The NED data set has some uncertainty, particularly for estimating elevation changes of 1 meter or less. That means the researchers' ability to identify the threat to any particular small piece of land is better for larger amounts of sea-level rise than for smaller amounts of sea-level rise, Weiss said.

"As better digital elevation models become available, we'll be using those," Weiss said. "The USGS is always improving the digital elevation models for the U.S." Overpeck said, "The main point of our work is to give people in our coastal towns and cities more information to work with as they decide how to deal with the growing problem of sea-level rise."

Interesting2: The Sun has unleashed its strongest flare in four years, observers say. The eruption is a so-called X-flare, the strongest type; such flares can affect communications on Earth. Nasa's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft recorded an intense flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation emanating from a sunspot.

The British Geological Survey (BGS) has issued a geomagnetic storm warning, and says observers might be able to see aurorae from the northern UK. The monster flare was recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February and directed at the Earth. According to the US space agency, the source of this activity – sunspot 1158 – is growing rapidly.

Preliminary data from the Stereo-B and Soho spacecraft suggest that the explosion produced a fast but not particularly bright coronal mass ejection (CME) – a burst of charged particles released into space. The unpredictable eruptions on the Sun can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites – including the satellite navigation network (or sat-nav) signals used on Earth.

On Wednesday, the BGS released a rarely seen archive of geomagnetic records that provide an insight into "space weather" stretching back to the Victorian era. BGS scientists say that studies of solar storms in the past could inform the prediction of future space weather and help mitigate threats to national infrastructure.

Displays of the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) have already been seen further south than usual in Northern Ireland and elsewhere in the UK. And further solar activity is expected over the next few days. Researchers say the Sun has been awakening after a period of several years of low activity.

Interesting3: Question: What would have happened without the Clean Air Act? Today, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson testified before the House Energy and Commerce Committee. In her testimony the Administrator highlighted the agency's ongoing efforts to develop sensible standards that update the Clean Air Act, while ensuring that the landmark law continues to provide Americans the protections from dangerous pollution that they deserve.

These reasonable steps will ensure that the air our children breathe and the water they drink is safe, while also providing certainty to American businesses. Despite these pragmatic steps to implement long overdue updates, big polluters are trying to gut the Clean Air Act by asking Congress to carve out special loopholes from air pollution standards.

The Clean Air Act gives the Environmental Protection Agency the necessary tools to protect our families from a number of harmful pollutants that can cause asthma and lung disease — especially in children. Weakening these standards would allow more pollution in the air we breathe and threaten our children’s health. We thought it might be helpful to refresh everyone on how this landmark law affects our country and protects our health. 160,000 Lives Saved Last Year.

In the year 2010 alone, clean air regulations are estimated to have saved over 160,000 lives. More than 100,000 Hospital Visits Avoided Last Year. In 2010, clean air standards prevented millions of cases of respiratory problems, including bronchitis and asthma. It enhanced productivity by preventing millions of lost workdays, and kept kids healthy and in school, avoiding millions of lost school days due to respiratory illness and other diseases caused or exacerbated by air pollution.

Interesting4: While governments debate about potential policies that might curb the emission of greenhouse gases, new University of Washington research shows that the world is already committed to a warmer climate because of emissions that have occurred up to now. There would continue to be warming even if the most stringent policy proposals were adopted, because there still would be some emission of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.

But the new research shows that even if all emissions were stopped now, temperatures would remain higher than pre-Industrial Revolution levels because the greenhouse gases already emitted are likely to persist in the atmosphere for thousands of years. In fact, it is possible temperatures would continue to escalate even if all cars, heating and cooling systems and other sources of greenhouse gases were suddenly eliminated, said Kyle Armour, a UW doctoral student in physics.

That's because tiny atmospheric particles called aerosols, which tend to counteract the effect of greenhouse warming by reflecting sunlight back into space, would last only a matter of weeks once emissions stopped, while the greenhouse gases would continue on. "The aerosols would wash out quickly and then we would see an abrupt rise in temperatures over several decades," he said. Armour is the lead author of a paper documenting the research, published recently in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

His co-author is Gerard Roe, a UW associate professor of Earth and space sciences. The global temperature is already about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than it was before the Industrial Revolution, which began around the start of the 19th century. The scientists' calculations took into account the observed warming, as well as the known levels of greenhouse gases and aerosols already emitted to see what might happen if all emissions associated with industrialization suddenly stopped.

In the best-case scenario, the global temperature would actually decline, but it would remain about a half-degree F higher than pre-Industrial Revolution levels and probably would not drop to those levels again, Armour said. There also is a possibility temperatures would rise to 3.5 degrees F higher than before the Industrial Revolution, a threshold at which climate scientists say significant climate-related damage begins to occur.

Of course it is not realistic to expect all emissions to cease suddenly, and Armour notes that the overall effect of aerosols — particles of sea salt or soot from burning fossil fuels, for example — is perhaps the largest uncertainty in climate research. But uncertainties do not lessen the importance of the findings, he said. The scientists are confident, from the results of equations they used, that some warming would have to occur even if all emissions stopped now.

But there are more uncertainties, and thus a lower confidence level, associated with larger temperature increases. Climate models used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments take into consideration a much narrower range of the possible aerosol effects, or "forcings," than are supported by actual climate observations, Armour said. The Nobel Peace Prize-winning panel, sponsored by the United Nations, makes periodic assessments of climate change and is in the process of compiling its next report. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue, the "climate commitment" to a warmer planet only goes up, Armour said.

He believes it is helpful for policy makers to understand that level of commitment. It also will be helpful for them to understand that, while some warming is assured, uncertainties in current climate observations — such as the full effect of aerosols — mean the warming could be greater than models suggest. "This is not an argument to say we should keep emitting aerosols," he said. "It is an argument that we should be smart in how we stop emitting. And it's a call to action because we know the warming we are committed to from what we have emitted already and the longer we keep emitting the worse it gets."

Interesting5: Extreme rainstorms and snowfalls have grown substantially stronger, two studies suggest, with scientists for the first time finding the telltale fingerprints of man-made global warming on downpours that often cause deadly flooding. Two studies in Wednesday's issue of the journal Nature link heavy rains to increases in greenhouse gases more than ever before.

One group of researchers looked at the strongest rain and snow events of each year from 1951 to 1999 in the Northern Hemisphere and found that the more recent storms were seven per cent wetter. That may not sound like much, but it adds up to be a substantial increase, said the report from a team of researchers from Canada and Scotland, led by Environment Canada scientist Seung-Ki Min.

The study did not single out specific storms but examined worst-of-each-year events all over the Northern Hemisphere. While the study ended in 1999, the close of the decade when scientists say climate change kicked into a higher gear, the events examined were similar to more recent disasters: deluges that triggered last year's deadly floods in Pakistan and in Nashville, Tenn., and this winter's paralyzing blizzards in parts of the United States.

The change in severity was most apparent in North America, but that could be because that is where the most rain gauges are, scientists said.

Both studies should weaken the argument that climate change is a "victimless crime," said Myles Allen of the University of Oxford.

He co-authored the second study, which connected flooding and climate change in Britain. "Extreme weather is what actually hurts people."

Jonathan Overpeck, a University of Arizona climate scientist, who did not take part in either study, praised them as sensible and "particularly relevant given the array of extreme weather that we've seen this winter and stretching back over the last few years."

Not all the extreme rain and snow events the scientists studied cause flooding. But since 1950, flooding has killed more than 2.3 million people, according to the World Health Organization's disaster database.

The British study focused on flooding in England and Wales in autumn of 2000. The disaster cost more than $1.7 billion in insured damages and was the wettest autumn for the region in more than 230 years of record-keeping.

Researchers found that global warming more than doubled the likelihood of that flood occurring. Similar studies are now under way to examine whether last year's deadly Russian heat wave and Pakistan floods — which were part of the same weather event — can be scientifically attributed to global warming.

For years scientists, relying on basic physics and climate knowledge, have said global warming would likely cause extremes in temperatures and rainfall. But this is the first time researchers have been able to point to a demonstrable cause-and-effect by using the rigorous and scientifically accepted method of looking for the "fingerprints" of human-caused climate change.

The scientists took all the information that shows an increase in extreme rain and snow events from the 1950s through the 1990s and ran dozens of computer models numerous times. They put in the effects of greenhouse gases — which come from the burning of fossil fuels — and then ran numerous models without those factors.

Only when the greenhouse gases are factored in do the models show a similar increase to what actually happened. All other natural effects alone don't produce the jump in extreme rainfall. Essentially, the computer runs show climate change is the only way to explain what's happening.

Computer models underestimate increase

In fact, the computer models underestimated the increase in extreme rain and snow. That is puzzling and could be even more troubling for our future, said Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton University, who was not part of the study.

Similar fingerprinting studies have found human-caused greenhouse gas emissions triggered changes in more than a dozen other ecological ways: temperatures on land, the ocean's surface, heat content in the depths of the oceans, temperature extremes, sea level pressure, humidity at ground level and higher in the air, general rainfall amounts, the extent of Arctic sea ice, snowpack levels and timing of runoff in the western United States, Atlantic Ocean salinity, wildfire damage, and the height of the lower atmosphere.

All those signs say global warming is here, said Xuebin Zhang, a research scientist with Environment Canada and co-author of the Northern Hemisphere study. "It is affecting us in multiple directions."

Most of the 10 outside climate experts who reviewed the papers for The Associated Press called the research sound and strong.

However, climate scientist Jerry North of Texas A&M University, while praising the work, said he worried that the studies were making too firm a connection based on weather data that could be poor in some locations.

But Univerisity of Victoria researcher Francis Zwiers, who also co-authored the Environment Canada study, said the data was from National Weather Service gauges and is reliable.

"Put the two papers together and we start to see an emerging pattern," said Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria, who wasn't part of either study.

"We should continue to expect increased flooding associated with increased extreme precipitation because of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas. And we have no one to blame but ourselves.